TürkiyeIstanbul - TurkeyFinished

Predictions graded

Arda Azkara #823Türkiye1Fares Zakaria #520Egypt2

Sets 7-6 · 2-6 · 1-6Mon 7 Sept 2026, 08:55 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions6–275%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFares Zakaria · 303 places

Arda Azkara

Türkiye

Azkara, 23, is right-handed and 191 cm. He reached a singles career high of No. 541 on 17 November 2025; the supplied current singles ranking is No. 823.

Current ranking: #823
Peak ranking: #541 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Fares Zakaria

Egypt

Structured player data lists Zakaria at No. 520, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and 183 cm. The requested public searches did not provide reliable current age, career-high, or surface-preference information.

Current ranking: #520
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 23:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Zakaria holds a moderate edge over Azkara due to better recent hard-court form and a higher ranking.

The best value is on Zakaria to win at 2.30, with a 14.5-point edge over the implied probability. Expect a competitive match with a lean toward over 21.5 total games.

Context

Zakaria, 26, is a right-hander ranked 559 and has played most of his career on hard courts.
Zakaria's recent hard-court record is 6-5, with wins over lower-ranked opponents and a retirement win. Azkara is 5-8 on hard courts in his last 13, with losses to players ranked above and below him. This suggests Zakaria is slightly more reliable on this surface, though both players have mixed results.
- Zakaria's last 15 hard-court matches: 6 wins, 5 losses (54.5% win rate).
- Azkara's last 15 hard-court matches: 5 wins, 8 losses (38.5% win rate).
- Zakaria's recent wins include a retirement victory over Hady Habib and a straight-set win over Mert Naci Turker.
- Azkara's recent losses include defeats to players ranked 305, 467, and 551.
Azkara and Zakaria meet in the final qualifying round of the Istanbul Challenger TED Open on 7 September.
The winner progresses from qualifying into the tournament main draw. This adds direct stakes to the match, but the standard form signals already capture the main competitive differences between the players.
- Azkara defeated Stefan Horia Haita 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 to reach the final qualifying round, where Zakaria was named as the next opponent.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 23:09 · Europe/Bucharest
Azkara, 21, is ranked 823 and has a career first-serve percentage of 57%.
On hard courts in the last 15 matches, Azkara wins 70% of first-serve points and 38.4% of return points. Zakaria wins 69.3% of first-serve points and 39.3% of return points. The differences are small, but Zakaria's slightly better return game could matter in close sets.
- Azkara hard-court first-serve points won: 70%.
- Zakaria hard-court first-serve points won: 69.3%.
- Azkara hard-court return points won: 38.4%.
- Zakaria hard-court return points won: 39.3%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Zakaria's superior recent hard-court form and ranking edge give him a moderate advantage in this qualifying match.
- Zakaria last15 hard record 6-5 (54.5%), Azkara 5-8 (38.5%)
- Zakaria last15 hard sets won 61.5%, Azkara 38.7%
- Zakaria ranking 559 vs Azkara 823
- Zakaria last15 overall record 8-7 vs Azkara 6-9
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFares ZakariaEstimated chance58%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches average around 22 games, supporting a total over 21.5.
- Azkara last15 hard average total games per match 22.5 (292 games / 13 matches)
- Zakaria last15 hard average total games per match 22.0 (242 games / 11 matches)
- Both players have similar games per match around 22
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent set-level averages near 9.5 games make the over a reasonable lean.
- Azkara last15 hard average set games 9.4 (292/31 sets)
- Zakaria last15 hard average set games 9.3 (242/26 sets)
- Both players have competitive first sets in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Zakaria's small edge in games won percentage supports a narrow handicap cover.
- Zakaria last15 hard games won 52.1%, Azkara 47.3%
- Zakaria last15 hard total points won 50.3%, Azkara 48.8%
- Zakaria has a slight edge in games won percentage
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFares Zakaria -1.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zakaria's stronger recent hard-court set performance suggests a slight edge in the opening set.
- Zakaria last15 hard first set win rate implied by 61.5% sets won
- Azkara first set win conversion career 86% but recent hard sets won only 38.7%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostFares ZakariaEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined ace averages suggest a moderate chance of exceeding 6.5 total aces.
- Azkara last15 hard aces per match 3.2
- Zakaria last15 hard aces per match 4.6
- Combined average aces per match 7.8
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault averages sit right at the line, making the over a coin-flip lean.
- Azkara last15 hard double faults per match 4.0
- Zakaria last15 hard double faults per match 3.5
- Combined average double faults per match 7.5
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Arda Azkara

6W 9L

4-6 6-3 6-2#668Stefan Horia Haita

4-6 7-6(3) 6-2#880Kristjan Tamm

6-1 6-3#887Pavlos Tsitsipas

6-3 7-6(0)#467Kenta Miyoshi

6-4 6-4#305Yanki Erel

6-3 6-2#551Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-2#299Johannus Monday

7-6(6) 6-3#861Oliver Bonding

4-6 6-2 6-3—Matias Reyniak

6-1 6-4#711Khololwam Montsi

7-6(5) 6-2#599Guillaume Dalmasso

4-6 6-3 6-2#300Mert Alkaya

7-6(4) 6-1#337Eliakim Coulibaly

4-6 6-4 6-3#560Filip Peliwo

6-2 6-4#498Patrick Schoen

Fares Zakaria

8W 7L

6-4 6-2#775Mert Naci Turker

6-7(7) 6-3 6-2#840Alex Knaff

6-0 1-0 ret.#794Hady Habib

6-4 6-3—Mathys Picard

6-7(3) 6-3 6-1#790Alexis Gautier

6-1 7-6(0)#478Alex Rybakov

5-7 6-3 7-6(5)—Vincent Reisach

6-3 7-6(0)—Jakub Solarski

7-5 6-2—Yassine Smiej

6-3 6-2—William Mclennaghan

6-4 3-6 6-1#156Daniil Glinka

7-6(5) 6-3#364Sebastian Sorger

6-1 1-6 6-3—David Bakonyi

6-0 6-0—Flynn Thomas

1-6 6-1 7-6(4)—Lenn Luemkemann

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AAArda AzkaraAzkara

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Fares ZakariaZakariaFZ

Fares Zakaria carries the stronger recent form — Arda Azkara's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In55.5%—55.9%

1st Serve Won69.8%+2.2pp67.6%

2nd Serve Won47.8%+1.0pp48.8%

Aces / Match3.4+0.33.7

Double Faults / Match3.9—3.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.9%+2.3pp39.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted35.1%+2.2pp37.3%

Break Pts Saved58.7%+1.5pp60.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.4%+0.9pp49.3%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

55.5%1st Serve In—55.9%

69.8%1st Serve Won+2.2pp67.6%

47.8%2nd Serve Won+1.0pp48.8%

3.4Aces / Match+0.33.7

3.9Double Faults / Match—3.7

Return · 0–1

36.9%Return Pts Won+2.3pp39.2%

Pressure · 0–2

35.1%Break Pts Converted+2.2pp37.3%

58.7%Break Pts Saved+1.5pp60.2%

Points · 0–1

48.4%Total Pts Won+0.9pp49.3%