TürkiyeIstanbul - TurkeyFinished

Predictions graded

Alibek Kachmazov #822Russia1Gabriel Ghetu #625Romania2

Sets 6-7 · 6-2 · 4-6Mon 7 Sept 2026, 09:10 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions4–450%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGabriel Ghetu · 197 places

Alibek Kachmazov

Russia

Kachmazov reached a career-best singles ranking of No. 161 in May 2025. ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #822
Peak ranking: #161 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Gabriel Ghetu

Romania

Ghetu, 18, is right-handed and listed at 180 cm. His listed career high is No. 586, reached in May 2026.

Current ranking: #625
Peak ranking: #586 · 2026
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 03:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Kachmazov's superior hard-court experience and serve give him the edge over Ghetu, who is more comfortable on clay.

Back Kachmazov on the moneyline and over 8.5 total aces, but expect a competitive match with potential for a tiebreak.

Context

Kachmazov, ranked 822, is a right-hander who has spent most of his recent schedule on hard courts and reached a career-high ranking of 41 in 2023.
His 71.4% win rate on hard courts in the last 15 matches is built on a strong first serve (81% points won) and solid break-point saving (65.5%). Ghetu's only recent hard-court match was a 6-1 6-1 win over an unranked opponent, so his surface readiness is unproven. Kachmazov's comfort on this surface should give him a clear advantage in the early exchanges.
- Kachmazov last 15 on hard: 10-4 record, 81% first-serve points won, 65.5% break points saved.
- Ghetu last 15 on hard: 1-0 record, but only one match tracked.
- Kachmazov's overall last 15 record is 10-5, with 8.4 aces per match.
Ghetu, ranked 625, is a clay-court specialist with a 66.2% career win rate and a strong return game.
His return-points-won percentage of 48.6% in the last 15 matches is significantly higher than Kachmazov's 37.1%. If Ghetu can extend rallies and force Kachmazov into second serves, he may earn break opportunities. However, Kachmazov's first-serve effectiveness (79.6% points won) could limit those chances.
- Ghetu last 15 overall: 48.6% return points won, 50.4% break points converted.
- Kachmazov last 15 overall: 37.1% return points won, 47.6% break points converted.
- Ghetu's first-serve points won is only 63.2%, so he relies more on return success.
This is the final qualifying round in Istanbul, so the winner moves into the main draw. The match carries direct advancement stakes for both players.
- The match listing places the encounter in Q3.
ReportedSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 03:10 · Europe/BucharestKachmazov vs Ghetu H2H Prediction Insightsmatchstat.com · 6 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Kachmazov's recent hard-court form and superior hard-court experience give him the edge despite Ghetu's higher ranking and overall recent record.
- Kachmazov last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%), Ghetu 11-4 (73.3%)
- Kachmazov last 15 hard record 10-4 (71.4%), Ghetu hard sample only 1 match
- Kachmazov ranking 822 vs Ghetu 625, but Kachmazov has stronger hard-court career surface wins (101 vs 19)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive baseline rallies and decent return stats suggest a match that could extend beyond 21.5 games.
- Kachmazov last 15 average 21.5 games per match (180 games / 15 matches)
- Ghetu last 15 average 18.7 games per match (162 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have solid return games: Kachmazov 37.1% return points won, Ghetu 48.6%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive with both players holding serve early, pushing the total over 9.5 games.
- Kachmazov last 15 average 10.8 games per set (180 games / 16.7 sets)
- Ghetu last 15 average 8.8 games per set (162 games / 18.4 sets)
- Both players have strong first-set win conversion rates, indicating tight opening sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kachmazov's stronger serve metrics on hard courts should help him start well, though Ghetu's high first-set conversion rate keeps this close.
- Kachmazov first set win conversion 85% career, Ghetu 88%
- Kachmazov last 15 first serve points won 79.6%, Ghetu 63.2%
- Kachmazov last 15 hard first serve points won 81%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kachmazov's high ace rate on hard courts should push the total aces over 8.5 even with Ghetu's low ace count.
- Kachmazov last 15 aces per match 8.4, Ghetu 1.5
- Kachmazov last 15 hard aces per match 8.8
- Combined expected aces around 10 based on Kachmazov's serve dominance
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average enough double faults to make over 5.5 a reasonable outcome.
- Kachmazov last 15 double faults per match 3.7, Ghetu 2.2
- Combined average 5.9 double faults per match
- Kachmazov's lower first serve percentage (52.8%) increases double fault risk
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Alibek Kachmazov

10W 5L

6-3 7-6(4)#490Louis Wessels

7-6(3) 6-7(6) 6-2#501Colin Sinclair

6-3 7-5—Maan Kesarwani

4-6 6-1 7-6(1)#864Sora Fukuda

6-3 6-4#677Anton Arzhankin

7-5 6-3#390Marek Gengel

6-3 2-6 6-4#559Fares Zakaria

6-1 6-2#421Semen Pankin

6-2 6-1—Cedric Stanke

3-6 6-3 6-4#897Maximilian Neuchrist

6-3 7-5#158Gauthier Onclin

6-0 6-3#849Nicolas Robert

7-6(4) 6-1#839Skander Mansouri

6-3 6-1—Leo Lagarrigue

6-1 7-5#832Carles Cordoba

Gabriel Ghetu

11W 4L

6-1 6-1—Kaya Arinc

6-2 6-3#766Radu David Turcanu

3-6 7-6(4) 6-1#857Anas Mazdrashki

6-4 6-4#594Stefan Adrian Andreescu

7-6(4) 6-3#859Giannicola Misasi

6-0 3-0 ret.#1203Valentin Vanta

6-2 6-3—Vlad Cristian Breazu

6-1 6-2#878Iannis Miletich

3-6 6-2 6-2—Matteo Sciahbasi

6-1 6-0—Rares Andrei Golescu

6-4 6-4#859Giannicola Misasi

7-5 ret.—Filiberto Fumagalli

6-4 6-3—Vito Dell'Elba

4-6 6-3 6-2—Filippo Francesco Garbero

6-3 7-5#846Francesco Ferrari

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AKAlibek KachmazovKachmazov

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Gabriel GhetuGhetuGG

Gabriel Ghetu carries the stronger recent form — Alibek Kachmazov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In52.8%+15.6pp68.4%

1st Serve Won79.6%+16.4pp63.2%

2nd Serve Won50.5%—50.0%

Aces / Match8.4+6.91.5

Double Faults / Match3.71.5 fewer2.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.1%+11.5pp48.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted47.6%+2.8pp50.4%

Break Pts Saved63.8%+1.4pp62.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won52.2%+1.6pp53.8%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

52.8%1st Serve In+15.6pp68.4%

79.6%1st Serve Won+16.4pp63.2%

50.5%2nd Serve Won—50.0%

8.4Aces / Match+6.91.5

3.7Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer2.2

Return · 0–1

37.1%Return Pts Won+11.5pp48.6%

Pressure · 1–1

47.6%Break Pts Converted+2.8pp50.4%

63.8%Break Pts Saved+1.4pp62.4%

Points · 0–1

52.2%Total Pts Won+1.6pp53.8%