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Predictions graded

Ren Nakamura #1909Japan0Hanyi Liu #899China2

Sets 0-6 · 1-6Sun 6 Sept 2026, 08:40 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions9–0100%

Edges5–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHanyi Liu · 1010 places

Ren Nakamura

Japan

Nakamura, 31, is the right-hander in this matchup. His recorded career-high ATP ranking is No. 1410, reached in September 2019.

Current ranking: #1909
Peak ranking: #1410 · 2019
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Hanyi Liu

China

Liu, 25, is the right-hander in this matchup. His recorded career-high ranking is No. 719, reached in April 2024.

Current ranking: #899
Peak ranking: #719 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Sep 2026, 22:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Hanyi Liu is the clear favorite over Ren Nakamura based on superior form, ranking, and return stats.

However, the odds are heavily skewed (1.10 for match win) and offer no value relative to the model's 68% probability. Bettors should avoid short prices on Liu and consider alternative markets like total games under, though confidence is low.

Context

Liu, 899th, has been the more consistent player over the last 15 matches, winning 10 of them and taking 66.7% of sets.
Nakamura has won only 8 of 15 and his return points won is 36.9% compared to Liu's 45.7%. Liu's stronger return and higher total points won (53.2% vs 46.2%) suggest he can pressure Nakamura's serve and create more break chances.
- Liu last 15: 10-5 record, 66.7% sets won, 56.6% games won.
- Nakamura last 15: 8-7 record, 45.7% sets won, 50.9% games won.
- Liu return points won: 45.7% vs Nakamura 36.9%.
- Liu total points won: 53.2% vs Nakamura 46.2%.
Nakamura, ranked 1909, has struggled against stronger opposition in his recent schedule.
His last two defeats came against Azuma Visaya and Kristjan Tamm (ranked 880), and he won only 2 and 4 games respectively. Liu beat Kaichi Uchida (ranked 277) on August 31, showing he can compete with higher-level players.
- Nakamura lost to Kristjan Tamm (880) 6-3 6-1 on Aug 26.
- Nakamura lost to Azuma Visaya 6-1 6-1 on Aug 31.
- Liu beat Kaichi Uchida (277) 3-6 6-3 6-2 on Aug 31.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Hanyi Liu

1.10fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Hanyi Liu is the clear favorite based on recent form and ranking, but the odds are too short relative to the model's probability estimate.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Liu's superior recent form and Nakamura's straight-set losses suggest a two-set match, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Hanyi Liu

1.18fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Liu's superior serve and break point saving should give him the edge in the opening set.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Hanyi Liu

1.18fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Liu's return advantage and slightly better second serve should help him take the second set as well.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Hanyi Liu 2-0

1.30fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Liu's straight-set win rate is high, but the odds heavily overprice the probability of a 2-0 score.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Hanyi Liu has stronger recent form, better return numbers, and a ranking edge, making him the clear favorite.
- Hanyi Liu last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Ren Nakamura 8-7 (53.3%)
- Hanyi Liu last 15 return points won 45.7% vs Ren Nakamura 36.9%
- Hanyi Liu ranking 899 vs Ren Nakamura 1909
- H2H: Hanyi Liu won their only meeting in 2019
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHanyi LiuEstimated chance68%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Liu's dominance in recent matches suggests a relatively quick straight-set win with fewer total games.
- Ren Nakamura last 15 average games per match 23.1
- Hanyi Liu last 15 average games per match 18.6
- Hanyi Liu recent wins often in straight sets with low game totals
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Liu's strong first-set performances point to a lower game count in the opening set.
- Hanyi Liu last 15 first set average games 8.7
- Ren Nakamura last 15 first set average games 9.3
- Hanyi Liu often wins first sets comfortably
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second set could be competitive but still lean under the line based on recent averages.
- Hanyi Liu last 15 second set average games 8.9
- Ren Nakamura last 15 second set average games 9.1
- Both players have moderate second-set game totals
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Liu's recent dominance and Nakamura's struggles indicate a likely two-set match.
- Hanyi Liu last 15 straight-set wins in 8 of 10 wins
- Ren Nakamura last 15 straight-set losses in 5 of 7 losses
- Hanyi Liu's superior form suggests a straight-set victory
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Liu's superior serve and break point saving should give him the edge in the opening set.
- Hanyi Liu first set win conversion 87% career
- Hanyi Liu last 15 first serve points won 67.1% vs Ren Nakamura 59.1%
- Hanyi Liu last 15 break points saved 64.8% vs Ren Nakamura 43.1%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHanyi LiuEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Liu's return advantage and slightly better second serve should help him take the second set as well.
- Hanyi Liu last 15 second serve points won 49.1% vs Ren Nakamura 48.7%
- Hanyi Liu last 15 return points won 45.7% vs Ren Nakamura 36.9%
- Hanyi Liu last 15 games won 56.6% vs Ren Nakamura 50.9%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHanyi LiuEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Liu's form and Nakamura's recent losses make a straight-set win the most likely exact score.
- Hanyi Liu last 15 straight-set win rate 80%
- Ren Nakamura last 15 straight-set loss rate 71%
- Hanyi Liu's return and serve stats are superior
BetBugs · Set BettingwonHanyi Liu 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Liu's ability to close sets without tiebreaks reduces the likelihood of a tiebreak.
- Hanyi Liu last 15 tiebreak rate low
- Ren Nakamura tiebreak win percentage 40% career
- Hanyi Liu often wins sets without tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, but the under is slightly favored.
- Hanyi Liu last 15 double faults per match 1.9
- Ren Nakamura last 15 double faults per match 1.8
- Combined average double faults per match 3.7
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The odds heavily favor Liu, but his recent form and the matchup suggest a closer contest than the price implies.

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L4-6 7-5 10-7Ren Nakamura#1909vHanyi Liu#899Jan 6, 2019

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Ren Nakamura

8W 7L

6-1 6-1—Azuma Visaya

6-3 6-1#880Kristjan Tamm

6-2 6-1—Aniketh Venkataraman

6-4 6-2#764Ryuki Matsuda

6-0 6-0—Aditya Kothari

7-6(4) 7-5#876Corban Crowther

6-7(3) 6-4 10-6—Diordan Macababbad

6-4 6-0#672Keisuke Saitoh

6-3 2-6 10-5#876Corban Crowther

6-1 6-1#1989Roy Hobbs

6-3 6-4#830Taiyo Yamanaka

3-6 7-6(2) 10-7—Taketo Takamisawa

6-0 3-6 10-6—Rin Kojima

6-1 7-5#888Ryota Tanuma

7-5 4-6 10-5—Jonathan Irwanto

Hanyi Liu

10W 5L

6-0 7-5#323Fajing Sun 3-6 6-3 6-2#277Kaichi Uchida

6-3 6-2#646Chase Ferguson

6-2 6-1—Xing Dao Chen

4-6 6-3 7-5#854Hoyoung Roh

6-2 6-1—Jia Hu

6-1 6-1—Kosuke Shibano

6-2 6-4#1581Zhao Zhao

6-4 6-3#663Yuta Kawahashi

4-6 6-0 3-0 ret.#539Kokoro Isomura

6-1 6-1—Artem Alekseychuk

7-5 6-2#646Chase Ferguson

6-1 6-2#293Matthew Dellavedova

6-2 7-6(3)#893Yaojie Zeng

6-2 6-3#896Grigoriy Lomakin

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RNRen NakamuraNakamura

Last 15

0–6

9 core stats · 3 even

Hanyi LiuLiuHL

Hanyi Liu carries the stronger recent form — Ren Nakamura's route runs through double faults / match.

Serve · 0–2 · 3 even

1st Serve In11/15 · 15/1557.9%+6.8pp64.7%

1st Serve Won11/15 · 15/1559.1%+8.0pp67.1%

2nd Serve Won11/15 · 15/1548.7%—49.1%

Aces / Match11/15 · 15/152.1—2.3

Double Faults / Match11/15 · 15/151.8—1.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won11/15 · 15/1536.9%+8.8pp45.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted11/15 · 15/1547.7%+1.0pp48.7%

Break Pts Saved11/15 · 15/1543.1%+21.7pp64.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won11/15 · 15/1546.2%+7.0pp53.2%

Serve · 0–2 · 3 even

57.9%1st Serve In11/15 · 15/15+6.8pp64.7%

59.1%1st Serve Won11/15 · 15/15+8.0pp67.1%

48.7%2nd Serve Won11/15 · 15/15—49.1%

2.1Aces / Match11/15 · 15/15—2.3

1.8Double Faults / Match11/15 · 15/15—1.9

Return · 0–1

36.9%Return Pts Won11/15 · 15/15+8.8pp45.7%

Pressure · 0–2

47.7%Break Pts Converted11/15 · 15/15+1.0pp48.7%

43.1%Break Pts Saved11/15 · 15/15+21.7pp64.8%

Points · 0–1

46.2%Total Pts Won11/15 · 15/15+7.0pp53.2%

Ren Nakamura

Hanyi Liu

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Hanyi Liu

Under 2.5

Hanyi Liu

Hanyi Liu

Hanyi Liu 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Hanyi Liu 2-0 @ 1.30

Head-to-Head

Ren Nakamura

Hanyi Liu

Stat Battle