FranceCassis - FranceRET

Predictions graded

Maxime Janvier #566France1Thomas Fancutt #810Australia0

Sets 5-1Sun 6 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaxime Janvier · 244 places

Maxime Janvier

France

Janvier, 29, is the right-hander in this matchup and reached a career-high No. 170 in September 2019. The reviewed profile material does not identify a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #566
Peak ranking: #170 · 2019
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Thomas Fancutt

Australia

Australian right-hander with a one-handed backhand. His ATP singles career high is No. 382, reached in May 2023; ITF listed him at No. 810 on August 10, 2026.

Current ranking: #810
Peak ranking: #382 · 2023
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 02:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Fancutt's stronger recent form and hard-court proficiency make him the likely winner over Janvier.

Back Fancutt to win at 1.70 for a slight value edge, but be cautious of Janvier's competitiveness in longer matches.

Context

Fancutt, 30, is an Australian ranked 712 who has built his career on hard courts, with 184 of his 260 career wins on that surface.
Fancutt's recent hard-court success and Janvier's clay-heavy schedule suggest Fancutt may be better prepared for this surface. However, Janvier's higher ranking and experience could still keep the match competitive.
- Fancutt's last 15 overall record: 9-6 (60%), with 6 wins in 10 hard-court matches.
- Janvier's last 15 overall record: 5-10 (33%), with 14 of those matches on clay.
- Fancutt's hard-court surface record in 2026: 22-10, while Janvier's is 0-1.
Janvier, 29, is a French right-hander ranked 572 who has struggled with consistency on serve throughout his career.
Janvier's first-serve percentage of 61.3% and 5 double faults per match are below average, giving Fancutt more chances to break. Fancutt's return points won of 39.4% is solid, so he may capitalize on Janvier's serving weaknesses.
- Janvier's last 15 first-serve percentage: 61.3%.
- Janvier's last 15 double faults per match: 5.0.
- Fancutt's last 15 return points won: 39.4%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Fancutt's stronger recent form and hard-court proficiency give him the edge over Janvier, whose recent results have been poor.
- Fancutt last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%), Janvier 5-10 (33.3%)
- Fancutt last 15 total points won 51.8%, Janvier 48.4%
- Fancutt last 15 break points converted 46.9%, Janvier 37.1%
- Fancutt 2026 hard court record 22-10, Janvier 0-1
BetBugs · Match Winnernot gradableThomas FancuttEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Janvier's matches tend to be longer and competitive, suggesting a higher total games count.
- Janvier last 15 average duration 127.6 minutes, Fancutt 104.4 minutes
- Janvier last 15 games won 46%, Fancutt 52.7%
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total Gamesnot gradableOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive with both players holding serve early.
- Janvier last 15 average games per set 9.6, Fancutt 9.5
- Both players have similar first-set game averages in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fancutt's superior first-serve effectiveness and strong first-set conversion rate make him likely to take the opening set.
- Fancutt first set win conversion career 85%, Janvier 81%
- Fancutt last 15 first serve points won 74.2%, Janvier 67.2%
- Fancutt last 15 hard court first serve points won 78.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostThomas FancuttEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Janvier's high double fault rate should push the combined total over the line.
- Janvier last 15 double faults per match 5.0, Fancutt 3.5
- Combined average double faults per match 8.5
- Janvier has high double fault rate in recent matches
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fancutt's strong ace count on hard courts should push the combined total over the line.
- Fancutt last 15 aces per match 5.7, Janvier 3.7
- Fancutt last 15 hard court aces per match 7.3
- Combined average aces per match 9.4
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Maxime Janvier

5W 10L

6-4 4-6 6-2#382Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-2 6-3#708Rafael Izquierdo Luque

6-4 3-6 7-5#728Daniele Rapagnetta

6-3 5-7 6-3#714Michael Vrbensky

4-6 6-4 6-2#570Lorenzo Angelini

6-0 6-1#382Dimitar Kuzmanov

7-5 7-6(4)#736Oskar Brostrom Poulsen

6-3 6-3—Giammarco Gandolfi

4-6 6-4 6-3#185Clement Chidekh

4-6 6-2 7-6(4)#275Ilia Simakin

7-6(8) 4-6 6-3#714Michael Vrbensky

6-1 3-6 6-3#897Kaito Uesugi

6-4 6-1#738Emilien Demanet

4-6 6-3 6-4#292Matteo Martineau

2-6 7-6(3) 6-3#386Laurent Lokoli

Thomas Fancutt

9W 6L

6-2 6-3#660Luis Queiroz Miguel

6-4 6-3#459Karl Poling

6-4 6-4#627Bruno Kuzuhara

6-4 6-2—Enmanuel Munoz

3-6 7-6(7) 6-1#459Karl Poling

6-2 6-2—Lincoln Battle

6-4 3-6 7-5#322Daniel Milavsky

6-3 6-4#454Jie Cui

7-6(6) 4-6 6-1#518Hiroki Moriya

6-4 6-7(5) 6-2#586Kaylan Bigun

3-6 6-3 6-0#339Mathys Erhard

7-6(5) 4-6 6-1—Dimitar Kisimov

6-3 5-7 6-2#559Fares Zakaria

7-5 6-2#738Emilien Demanet

6-4 6-2#1065Vladimir Uzhylovsky

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MJMaxime JanvierJanvier

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Thomas FancuttFancuttTF

Thomas Fancutt carries the stronger recent form — Maxime Janvier's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In61.3%+1.8pp59.5%

1st Serve Won67.2%+7.0pp74.2%

2nd Serve Won47.3%+5.2pp52.5%

Aces / Match3.7+2.05.7

Double Faults / Match5.01.5 fewer3.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.0%+2.4pp39.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted37.1%+9.8pp46.9%

Break Pts Saved58.6%+5.7pp52.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.4%+3.4pp51.8%

Serve · 1–4

61.3%1st Serve In+1.8pp59.5%

67.2%1st Serve Won+7.0pp74.2%

47.3%2nd Serve Won+5.2pp52.5%

3.7Aces / Match+2.05.7

5.0Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer3.5

Return · 0–1

37.0%Return Pts Won+2.4pp39.4%

Pressure · 1–1

37.1%Break Pts Converted+9.8pp46.9%

58.6%Break Pts Saved+5.7pp52.9%

Points · 0–1

48.4%Total Pts Won+3.4pp51.8%