AustriaTulln - AustriaFinished

Predictions graded

Andrej Martin #402Slovakia2Jonas Gundacker #1876Austria0

Sets 6-4 · 6-2Sun 6 Sept 2026, 12:30 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions3–350%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrej Martin · 1474 places

Andrej Martin

Slovakia

Martin reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 93 on 10 February 2020. He is a 36-year-old Slovak right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #402
Peak ranking: #93 · 2020
Current age: 36
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Jonas Gundacker

Austria

Gundacker, 23, is a right-hander whose ITF profile lists clay as his preferred surface. The profile recorded an ATP singles ranking of No. 1,876 on 27 July 2026; his career high is No. 1,602, reached on 3 November 2025.

Current ranking: #1876
Peak ranking: #1602 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 02:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Martin is the likely winner based on ranking and experience, but his odds are too short for value.

The over 21.5 total games is the best betting angle, supported by both players' recent match averages. Gundacker's tempting odds are a trap due to the significant gap in level.

Context

Martin, 35, is a veteran clay-court specialist who has spent most of his career on the Challenger and ITF tours.
His current winning streak is built on comfortable wins over opponents ranked 637 or lower, including two unranked players. That level of opposition is far below what he will face in this qualifying round, so the streak may overstate his current level.
- Martin's last five matches are all wins on clay, with opponents ranked 870, 637, 899, unranked, and unranked.
- His most recent loss was to Filip Cristian Jianu, ranked 269, in straight sets.
Gundacker, 22, is an Austrian player with limited ATP experience and a career-high ranking outside the top 500.
His recent defeats to Sebastian Sorger (ranked 364) and Wojciech Marek (836) suggest he can compete with players ranked above Martin's recent opponents. However, his wins in that stretch came against unranked or very low-ranked players, so his form is mixed.
- Gundacker's last five matches: L to Wojciech Marek (836), W vs Mateusz Terczynski (1664), W vs Jakub Krawczyk (unranked), L to Pavlos Tsitsipas (887), W vs Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini (unranked).
- His loss to Sebastian Sorger (364) was in straight sets.
Both players are clay-court specialists with extensive recent match experience on the surface.
Martin wins 51.7% of total points and 43.6% of return points, while Gundacker wins 52% of total points and 43.6% of return points. Gundacker also has a higher first-serve percentage (61% vs 54.6%) and fewer double faults per match (0.8 vs 4.3). These small edges could matter in a close match.
- Martin last15 on clay: 73.3% win rate, 51.7% total points won, 43.6% return points won, 54.6% first serve in, 4.3 double faults per match.
- Gundacker last15 on clay: 73.3% win rate, 52% total points won, 43.6% return points won, 61% first serve in, 0.8 double faults per match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Andrej Martin

1.10fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Martin's superior career clay pedigree and ranking give him a slight edge, but the odds imply a much higher probability than the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Martin's superior career clay pedigree and ranking give him a slight edge despite Gundacker's marginally better recent games-won percentage.
- Andrej Martin last 15 on clay: 11-4 record, 54.2% games won, 51.7% total points won
- Jonas Gundacker last 15 on clay: 11-4 record, 58.1% games won, 52.0% total points won
- Martin has higher career clay win total (533) and ATP ranking 401 vs Gundacker unranked
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAndrej MartinEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent match averages exceed 21.5 games, and their comparable return stats suggest competitive sets.
- Martin last 15 average games per match: 22.1 (332 games / 15 matches)
- Gundacker last 15 average games per match: 22.7 (341 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have similar return points won (43.6%) and break point conversion rates (45.3% vs 43.0%)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set game averages for both players are near or above 9.5, suggesting a competitive opening set.
- Martin last 15 first set average games: 9.7 (based on 15 matches with 146 first-set games)
- Gundacker last 15 first set average games: 9.9 (based on 15 matches with 148 first-set games)
- Both players have first serve points won around 65-66%, indicating close service games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Martin's recent momentum and slightly better first-serve effectiveness support a modest edge in the opening set.
- Martin first set win conversion career 86%, Gundacker 94%
- Martin last 15 first serve points won 66.2%, Gundacker 65.2%
- Martin has won 5 of last 6 matches, Gundacker 4 of last 6
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndrej MartinEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages of both players slightly exceed 4.5, though the margin is narrow.
- Martin last 15 aces per match: 2.3
- Gundacker last 15 aces per match: 2.5
- Combined average aces per match: 4.8
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Martin's high double fault rate pushes the combined average above 4.5, though Gundacker's low rate adds uncertainty.
- Martin last 15 double faults per match: 4.3
- Gundacker last 15 double faults per match: 0.8
- Combined average double faults per match: 5.1
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Andrej Martin

11W 4L

6-0 6-1#870Manuel Plunger

6-3 2-6 6-3#637Giovanni Oradini

6-3 6-3#899Lorenzo Rottoli

0-6 6-0 6-0—Leyton Rivera

6-4 6-3—Benedikt Szerencsits

6-2 6-2#269Filip Cristian Jianu

6-4 5-7 6-4#437Javier Barranco Cosano

6-1 6-2#1576Boris Arias

6-1 6-4#198Thiago Seyboth Wild

7-5 1-6 7-6(11)#566Alec Beckley

6-3 6-4—Tommy Luxa

7-6(0) 6-1#339Mathys Erhard

7-6(3) 6-3#442Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-3 6-7(5) 6-4—Alexander Wagner

7-5 3-6 7-5#466Khumoun Sultanov

Jonas Gundacker

11W 4L

7-6(2) 5-7 7-5#836Wojciech Marek

6-2 6-3#1664Mateusz Terczynski

6-1 6-1—Jakub Krawczyk

6-4 3-6 6-3#887Pavlos Tsitsipas

7-5 6-4—Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

6-2 6-2#364Sebastian Sorger

2-6 6-1 6-2#502Filip Jeff Planinsek

2-6 6-2 6-3#402Samuele Pieri

6-1 6-7(7) 6-3—Frederic Schlossmann

7-6(2) 6-4—Jan Facek

6-1 6-3—Mattias Pisanu

6-1 6-1—Jonas Kolonovics

7-5 7-5#886Iiro Vasa

6-4 6-2—Michal Novansky

6-3 5-7 10-4—Stepan Mruzek

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAndrej MartinMartin

Last 15

3–3

9 core stats · 3 even

Jonas GundackerGundackerJG

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1554.6%+6.4pp61.0%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1566.2%+1.0pp65.2%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1550.4%+2.8pp53.2%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/152.3—2.5

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/154.33.5 fewer0.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1543.6%—43.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1545.3%+2.3pp43.0%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1561.6%+2.7pp58.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1551.7%—52.0%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

54.6%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/15+6.4pp61.0%

66.2%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+1.0pp65.2%

50.4%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+2.8pp53.2%

2.3Aces / Match15/15 · 13/15—2.5

4.3Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/153.5 fewer0.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

43.6%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/15—43.6%

Pressure · 2–0

45.3%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/15+2.3pp43.0%

61.6%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/15+2.7pp58.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.7%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/15—52.0%