FranceCassis - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Alec Deckers #577Netherlands1Pierre Antoine Tailleu #1317France2

Sets 6-2 · 6-7 · 3-6Sun 6 Sept 2026, 11:20 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlec Deckers · 740 places

Alec Deckers

Netherlands

Dutch right-hander, born 2 May 2000, with a career-best ATP ranking of No. 483 in August 2023. No verified current injury, withdrawal, or return-from-absence report was located in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #577
Peak ranking: #483 · 2023
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Pierre Antoine Tailleu

France

French right-hander, born 30 August 2003, listed at 180 cm. No preferred surface is established here.

Current ranking: #1317
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Sep 2026, 22:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Deckers has a significant edge on hard courts with a dominant serve, while Tailleu's recent form is clay-based.

The odds heavily favor Deckers, offering no value on the moneyline. Better angles include over 15.5 total aces and a tiebreak occurring in the match.

Context

Deckers, ranked 542, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and a big serve, averaging 12.7 aces per match in his last 15.
His 66.7% win rate on hard courts in that span and 81% first-serve points won suggest he can control points on this surface. Tailleu's recent matches have been on clay, so the surface switch may favor Deckers, though Tailleu's return numbers are slightly better.
- Deckers is 10-5 in his last 15 matches, all on hard courts.
- He wins 81% of first-serve points and 52.8% of second-serve points.
- Tailleu's last 15 matches are all on clay, where he is 10-5.
Tailleu has no ATP ranking and has played mostly on clay in his career, with a 59-30 win-loss record on that surface.
His recent form is solid at 10-5, but all those matches were on clay. The switch to hard court may expose his lower first-serve percentage (50.8%) and fewer aces (3.5 per match), giving Deckers more opportunities to attack.
- Tailleu's last 15 matches are all on clay.
- His career hard-court record is 30-30, compared to 59-30 on clay.
- He averages only 3.5 aces per match and 50.8% first serves in his last 15.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Alec Deckers

1.08fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 92.6%

0.0ppshort

Deckers has a clear surface-fit edge on hard courts and a stronger serve profile, while Tailleu's recent form is clay-based.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Alec Deckers

1.15fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Deckers' superior first-serve effectiveness and higher first-set conversion rate give him an edge in the opening set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.08
The read
Deckers has a clear surface-fit edge on hard courts and a stronger serve profile, while Tailleu's recent form is clay-based.
- Deckers last15 hard record 10-5 (66.7%), Tailleu last15 clay record 10-5 (66.7%) but this match is on hard
- Deckers career hard win% 94/167 (56.3%) vs Tailleu hard win% 30/98 (30.6%)
- Deckers last15 aces per match 12.7 vs Tailleu 3.5, first serve points won 81% vs 72.1%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlec DeckersEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate return stats and similar break conversion, suggesting a competitive match with a higher game count.
- Deckers last15 average duration 117.3 min, Tailleu 136.8 min
- Deckers last15 games won 55%, Tailleu 51.9%
- Both players have similar break point conversion rates (Deckers 41.3%, Tailleu 45.3%)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Moderate serve percentages and return stats suggest a close first set with potential breaks.
- Deckers last15 first serve in 56.9%, Tailleu 50.8%
- Deckers last15 return points won 36.9%, Tailleu 38.2%
- Both players have break point save rates below 70%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second set is likely to be competitive with potential breaks, leading to a higher game count.
- Deckers last15 games won 55%, Tailleu 51.9%
- Both players have similar return points won percentages
- Tailleu last15 average duration 136.8 min suggests longer matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Deckers' superior first-serve effectiveness and higher first-set conversion rate give him an edge in the opening set.
- Deckers first set win conversion career 86%, Tailleu 78%
- Deckers last15 first serve points won 81% vs Tailleu 72.1%
- Deckers last15 break points saved 67.2% vs Tailleu 63.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlec DeckersEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Deckers takes the first set, his strong conversion rate and serve edge make him favored in the second set as well.
- Deckers last15 second serve points won 52.8% vs Tailleu 48.5%
- Deckers last15 break points saved 67.2% vs Tailleu 63.5%
- Deckers career first set win conversion 86%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAlec DeckersEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have frequent tiebreak history in recent matches, making a tiebreak likely in this competitive matchup.
- Deckers career tiebreak win% 58%, Tailleu 48%
- Deckers last15 has played multiple tiebreaks (e.g., 7-6(3), 7-6(6), 7-6(3))
- Tailleu last15 also has tiebreaks (7-6(8), 7-6(5), 7-6(4))
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Deckers' high ace rate alone is likely to push the combined total over 15.5, with Tailleu contributing a few.
- Deckers last15 aces per match 12.7, Tailleu 3.5
- Deckers career aces 1985 in 273 matches (7.3 per match), Tailleu 318 in 211 matches (1.5 per match)
- Deckers first serve points won 81% last15
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 15.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault rates suggest a moderate chance of exceeding 6.5, though variance is high.
- Deckers last15 double faults per match 2.9, Tailleu 3.9
- Deckers career double faults 640 in 273 matches (2.3 per match), Tailleu 512 in 211 matches (2.4 per match)
- Tailleu first serve in only 50.8% last15
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Alec Deckers

10W 5L

7-6(3) 0-6 6-4#259Max Basing

7-6(6) 6-3#488Luca Potenza

6-4 7-6(6)#790Alexis Gautier

6-4 7-6(3)#818Oscar Weightman

6-4 7-6(4)#716Patrick Brady

3-6 6-3 6-2—Ali Habib

7-6(1) 6-7(4) 6-4#826Conor Gannon

6-3 2-6 6-3#524Aziz Dougaz

7-6(3) 7-5#670Egor Agafonov

7-6(3) 6-2—Danial Rakhmatullayev

4-6 7-5 7-5—Kerem Yilmaz

6-2 6-4—Samim Filiz

6-4 2-6 6-1#900Charlie Robertson

6-0 6-7(1) 6-1—Andreas Timini

7-5 6-3—Udit Kamboj

Pierre Antoine Tailleu

10W 5L

6-4 6-2—Ferdinand Livet Novkirichka

6-3 7-5#429Maxime Chazal

6-2 6-4#900Amaury Raynel

6-4 6-4—Tanguy Genier

7-6(8) 5-7 6-1—Aren Baybars

6-2 6-3#638Alexander Ritschard

7-6(5) 6-3—Daniele Minighini

6-0 7-6(3)—Leonardo Iemmi

6-4 6-2—Samuel Rovai

7-6(4) 6-4#562Pierluigi Basile

7-6(5) 5-7 7-6(5)#797Stefano D'Agostino

6-4 0-6 6-3#671Andrea De Marchi

6-4 3-6 6-2—Federico Guarducci

6-4 7-6(1)—Vito Dell'Elba

6-4 6-2—Joseph Hernandez

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ADAlec DeckersDeckers

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Pierre Antoine TailleuTailleuPT

Alec Deckers carries the stronger recent form — Pierre Antoine Tailleu's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1556.9%+6.1pp50.8%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1581.0%+8.9pp72.1%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1552.8%+4.3pp48.5%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/1512.7+9.23.5

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/152.91.0 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1536.9%+1.3pp38.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1541.3%+4.0pp45.3%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1567.2%+3.7pp63.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1552.4%+2.8pp49.6%

Serve · 5–0

56.9%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/15+6.1pp50.8%

81.0%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+8.9pp72.1%

52.8%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+4.3pp48.5%

12.7Aces / Match15/15 · 13/15+9.23.5

2.9Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/151.0 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

36.9%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+1.3pp38.2%

Pressure · 1–1

41.3%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/15+4.0pp45.3%

67.2%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/15+3.7pp63.5%

Points · 1–0

52.4%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+2.8pp49.6%