ChinaZhangjiagang - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Ilia Simakin #269Russia2Matthew Dellavedova #299Australia0

Sets 7-5 · 6-2Thu 3 Sept 2026, 03:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIlia Simakin · 30 places

Ilia Simakin

Russia

Reached a career-high No. 214 on 2 February 2026. His 2026 ITF-recorded results were stronger on hard courts than clay.

Current ranking: #269
Peak ranking: #214 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Matthew Dellavedova

Australia

Dellavedova, ranked No. 299 in the supplied match data, is a right-hander with a one-handed backhand. Reliable public age, career-high and preferred-surface information could not be verified.

Current ranking: #299
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 03:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Dellavedova's dominant recent form (12-3) and superior return game make him a strong favorite over Simakin.

The moneyline at 2.90 offers excellent value with a 27.5-point edge. Expect a competitive match with potential for tiebreaks, but Dellavedova is likely to prevail, possibly in straight sets.

Context

Dellavedova, 27, is an Australian ranked 293 with a one-handed backhand and a career 57.8% win rate.
His 80% win rate over the last 15 matches, all on hard courts, includes dominant wins over lower-ranked opponents and a retirement win in his most recent match. Simakin's hard-court sample is smaller but also positive at 83.3%, though his overall window is dragged down by a 3-9 clay stretch. This suggests Dellavedova enters with more consistent recent match play on this surface.
- Dellavedova last 15 overall record: 12-3 (80%), all on hard courts.
- Simakin last 15 overall record: 8-7 (53.3%), with a 5-1 hard-court record and 3-9 clay record.
- Dellavedova's last 5 matches: 4 wins, including a retirement win over Luca Castelnuovo.
- Simakin's last 5 matches: 4 wins on hard, with the only loss to Lucas Poullain.
Dellavedova's return stats are supported by a 50% break point conversion rate in his last 15 matches.
Simakin's break point conversion is only 35.7%, and his return points won is 37.9%. Dellavedova's edge in return effectiveness could put pressure on Simakin's serve, especially if Simakin's first serve percentage remains around 61.6%.
- Dellavedova return points won: 41.7% (398/955).
- Simakin return points won: 37.9% (478/1261).
- Dellavedova break points converted: 50% (52/104).
- Simakin break points converted: 35.7% (40/112).
Simakin, 24, is a 193cm right-hander ranked 275 with a two-handed backhand.
His ace count and first-serve win rate are strong, but the low first-serve percentage and high double-fault rate could give Dellavedova more looks at second serves. Dellavedova's return numbers suggest he can capitalize on those opportunities.
- Simakin aces per match: 6.9 (104 in 15 matches).
- Simakin first serve in: 61.6% (744/1207).
- Simakin first serve points won: 71.2% (530/744).
- Simakin double faults per match: 3.4 (51 in 15 matches).
Dellavedova spent just over an hour longer on court in the first round, but that is the only verified workload difference and it is not enough to assume a fitness edge for Simakin.
- The players reached the Zhangjiagang round of 16 after first-round matches of materially different duration.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Sep 2026, 03:26 · Europe/BucharestATP Tour — Zhangjiagang Resultswww.atptour.com · 1 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.90
The read
Dellavedova's superior recent form, return game, and break-point efficiency on hard courts give him a clear edge over Simakin.
- Dellavedova last 15 overall record 12-3 (80%), Simakin 8-7 (53.3%)
- Dellavedova last 15 hard-court record 12-3, Simakin 5-1 on hard but with weaker opposition
- Dellavedova return points won 41.7% vs Simakin 37.9% in last 15
- Dellavedova break point conversion 50% vs Simakin 35.7% in last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMatthew DellavedovaEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to be competitive with both players capable of holding serve, pushing total games over 21.5.
- Simakin average match duration 120 minutes, Dellavedova 120.8 minutes in last 15
- Simakin games won 51.3%, Dellavedova 60.1% in last 15
- Both players have competitive recent matches with tiebreaks
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Strong serving from both players should keep the first set close, likely exceeding 9.5 games.
- Simakin first serve points won 71.2%, Dellavedova 70.5% in last 15
- Both players have strong first-serve numbers, suggesting holds
- Recent matches for both have featured close first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dellavedova's superior game-winning percentage suggests he can cover a -2.5 game handicap.
- Dellavedova games won 60.1% vs Simakin 51.3% in last 15
- Dellavedova has won 12 of last 15 matches, often comfortably
- Simakin's recent wins have been against lower-ranked opponents
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMatthew Dellavedova -2.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dellavedova's strong set-winning percentage and first-set conversion rate make him likely to take the opening set.
- Dellavedova first-set win conversion career 89%, Simakin 91%
- Dellavedova last 15 sets won 76.5%, Simakin 51.3%
- Dellavedova has won first set in 10 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMatthew DellavedovaEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Simakin's high ace count on hard courts should push the combined total over 8.5.
- Simakin averages 8.5 aces per match on hard courts in last 15
- Dellavedova averages 3.5 aces per match overall in last 15
- Combined average aces per match approximately 12
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dellavedova's low double-fault rate helps keep the combined total under 4.5.
- Dellavedova averages 1.1 double faults per match in last 15
- Simakin averages 3.3 double faults per match on hard courts in last 15
- Combined average double faults approximately 4.4
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both players serving well, a tiebreak is a plausible outcome in at least one set.
- Simakin tiebreak win percentage 53% career, Dellavedova 46%
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
- Strong serving suggests potential for tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Ilia Simakin

8W 7L

6-1 6-2#444Denis Yevseyev

5-7 6-2 6-3#343Lucas Poullain

7-6(5) 7-6(2)#356Antoine Ghibaudo

6-0 6-7(7) 6-4#303Florent Bax

6-3 7-6(4)#323Fajing Sun

5-7 6-3 6-4#500Adrian Boitan

7-5 6-3#189Lautaro Midon

4-6 7-5 7-6(7)#144Tomas Barrios Vera

3-6 6-4 6-2#382Dimitar Kuzmanov

4-6 6-2 7-6(4)#572Maxime Janvier

4-6 6-1 6-2#766Radu David Turcanu

6-4 4-6 6-2#341Marko Topo

6-3 6-4#388Jacopo Vasami

3-6 7-6(5) 7-6(5)#285Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-3 6-4#166Marco Cecchinato

Matthew Dellavedova

12W 3L

4-6 6-3 4-1 ret.#461Luca Castelnuovo

6-4 4-6 6-4—Kuan-Shou Chen

6-1 6-2#486Kasidit Samrej

6-4 6-2#880Kristjan Tamm

6-2 6-2#516Tai Sach

6-1 6-2#672Keisuke Saitoh

6-3 6-2#268Yu Hsiou Hsu

7-5 6-2#540Shunsuke Mitsui

6-1 6-2—Hiromasa Koyama

6-2 6-4#516Tai Sach

7-6(1) 6-0—Jeffrey Hsu

3-6 7-6(4) 6-4#821Kousuke Ogura

6-4 1-6 7-6(3)#694Shinji Hazawa

7-5 7-6(3)—Matthew Shearer

6-3 6-2—Daniil Sarksian

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ISIlia SimakinSimakin

Last 15

1–7

9 core stats · 1 even

Matthew DellavedovaDellavedovaMD

Matthew Dellavedova carries the stronger recent form — Ilia Simakin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.6%+4.1pp65.7%

1st Serve Won71.2%—70.5%

2nd Serve Won52.5%+4.9pp57.4%

Aces / Match6.9+3.43.5

Double Faults / Match3.42.3 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.9%+3.8pp41.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted35.7%+14.3pp50.0%

Break Pts Saved58.1%+3.6pp61.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.7%+3.2pp53.9%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

61.6%1st Serve In+4.1pp65.7%

71.2%1st Serve Won—70.5%

52.5%2nd Serve Won+4.9pp57.4%

6.9Aces / Match+3.43.5

3.4Double Faults / Match2.3 fewer1.1

Return · 0–1

37.9%Return Pts Won+3.8pp41.7%

Pressure · 0–2

35.7%Break Pts Converted+14.3pp50.0%

58.1%Break Pts Saved+3.6pp61.7%

Points · 0–1

50.7%Total Pts Won+3.2pp53.9%