Fajing Sun #326China22 – 0Hanyi Liu #899China0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.12

The read

Despite Liu's superior recent form, Sun's dominant H2H and higher ranking give him a slight edge, though Liu's current momentum makes this closer than the H2H suggests.

• H2H: Sun leads 2-0, both wins in straight sets (6-3 6-2 on hard in 2024, 6-4 6-1 in 2019).
• Sun's career hard-court win rate is 267-? (55.6% overall), while Liu's is 102-? (44.1% overall).
• Sun's last-15 overall record is 5-10 (33.3%), but Liu's is 11-4 (73.3%) with a 80% hard-court record in last 10.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Sun's matches tend to be longer, and with both players capable of holding serve, the total games line of 21.5 is likely to be exceeded.

• Sun's last-15 matches average 22.4 games per match (336 games / 15 matches).
• Liu's last-15 matches average 18.3 games per match (275 games / 15 matches).
• H2H matches were 17 and 11 games, but both players have had longer matches recently.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Liu's strong recent form and Sun's inconsistency make the +3.5 game handicap a solid bet, as Liu is likely to cover even in a loss.

• Liu's last-15 hard-court record is 8-2 with a 61.6% games won percentage.
• Sun's last-15 hard-court record is 5-7 with a 47.1% games won percentage.
• Liu's recent form suggests he can keep the match close even if he loses.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The second set could be tighter if the match is competitive, and both players have shown the ability to extend sets.

• Sun's last-15 second sets average 9.6 games.
• Liu's last-15 second sets average 8.7 games.
• H2H second sets were 8 and 5 games, but recent form suggests closer sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Sun's H2H dominance in early sets and similar first-set conversion rates give him a slight edge in set 1, though Liu's recent form makes this a low-confidence pick.

• Sun won the first set in both H2H meetings.
• Sun's first-set win conversion is 87% career, Liu's is also 87%.
• Liu's last-15 first-set record is not directly available, but his overall sets won is 72.7%.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combined ace average is close to the line, and with both players serving reasonably well, over 5.5 aces is slightly favored.

• Sun averages 2.9 aces per match in last 15, Liu averages 2.4.
• Combined average is 5.3 aces per match.
• H2H stats show Sun had 6 aces and Liu 3 in two matches (4.5 per match).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have moderate double fault rates, and the combined average exceeds the line, making over 3.5 likely.

• Sun averages 1.9 double faults per match in last 15, Liu averages 2.0.
• Combined average is 3.9 double faults per match.
• H2H stats show Sun had 9 double faults and Liu 1 in two matches (5 per match).