United StatesWTA US OpenFinished

Predictions graded

Anastasia Potapova #27Austria2Leolia Jeanjean #119France1

Sets 6-4 · 2-6 · 6-3Thu 3 Sept 2026, 15:01 Predictions gradedGrand Slam

Predictions6–186%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAnastasia Potapova · 92 places

Anastasia Potapova

Austria

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 21 on June 19, 2023. The ITF lists grass as her preferred surface, and the WTA records three career singles titles.

Current ranking: #27
Peak ranking: #21 · 2023
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Leolia Jeanjean

France

French right-hander born in August 1995. Her career-high singles ranking was No. 91 in August 2025, and the ITF player profile lists clay as her preferred surface; no current, reliably sourced injury or withdrawal signal was returned in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #119
Peak ranking: #91 · 2025
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 15:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Potapova is the favorite based on ranking and career hard-court success, but Jeanjean's recent form and longer matches suggest a closer contest.

The best betting angle is over 21.5 total games at 2.10, with a 12.4-point edge. Expect a competitive match with high double-fault counts and a possible tiebreak.

Context

Potapova, ranked 25, is a right-hander with a career 58.5% win rate, but her recent hard-court results have been inconsistent.
Her last five hard-court matches include losses to Stephens and Svitolina, and her last-15 hard-court record is only 3-3. That suggests she is not at her best on this surface, which could give Jeanjean an opening.
- Potapova's last-15 hard-court record is 3-3 (50%).
- She lost 6-1 6-1 to Svitolina on hard court in August 2026.
- Her last five hard-court matches: W, L, L, W, L.
Jeanjean, ranked 127, is a right-hander with a career 61.9% win rate, but her hard-court results have been below her overall level.
Her last-15 hard-court record is 2-3 and she has lost to players ranked outside the top 100. That suggests she may struggle against Potapova's power on this surface.
- Jeanjean's last-15 hard-court record is 2-3 (40%).
- She lost to Kamilla Rakhimova (ranked 92) and Lucrezia Stefanini (ranked 119) in August 2026.
- Her hard-court games won percentage is 46.6%.
Potapova's serve has been a weakness in recent matches, with a low first serve percentage and frequent double faults.
Her first serve percentage of 50.9% and double fault rate of 4.6 per match could give Jeanjean opportunities to attack on return. However, Jeanjean's own return points won is only 44.2%, so the impact may be limited.
- Potapova's first serve in percentage is 50.9% in last 15 matches.
- She averages 4.6 double faults per match.
- Jeanjean's return points won is 44.2% in last 15 matches.
Jeanjean, ranked No. 127, earned her first US Open main-draw win by beating qualifier Arantxa Rus in straight sets.
That victory puts her into this second-round meeting with Potapova, but it does not change her recent hard-court form or the matchup dynamics.
- Jeanjean had never previously won a match at the US Open.
- Her first-round match against Rus was interrupted by rain late in the opening set.
- Stored recent sample: 2 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Sep 2026, 15:09 · Europe/BucharestL'Équipe — Jeanjean records first New York winwww.lequipe.fr · 2 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Anastasia Potapova

1.29fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Potapova's higher ranking and stronger hard-court career baseline outweigh Jeanjean's slightly better recent overall form, making Potapova the moderate favorite.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Potapova's higher ranking and stronger hard-court career baseline outweigh Jeanjean's slightly better recent overall form, making Potapova the moderate favorite.
- Potapova ranking 25 vs Jeanjean 127
- Potapova last15 overall record 7-8 (46.7%) vs Jeanjean 9-6 (60%)
- Potapova hard-court last15 record 3-3 (50%) vs Jeanjean 2-3 (40%)
- Potapova career hard-court wins 116 vs Jeanjean 89
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAnastasia PotapovaEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Jeanjean's longer average match durations and competitive recent matches suggest a higher total games count.
- Potapova last15 average match duration 91.5 min
- Jeanjean last15 average match duration 121 min
- Jeanjean last15 hard-court average duration 124.4 min
- Both players have similar games-won percentages around 48-50%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jeanjean's tendency for longer sets and competitive play increases the likelihood of a set exceeding 9.5 games.
- Jeanjean last15 hard-court average duration 124.4 min
- Potapova last15 hard-court average duration 74.5 min
- Jeanjean's recent hard-court matches have gone to three sets in 2 of 5
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is likely to be closely contested given both players' similar return and break-point stats.
- Jeanjean last15 hard-court average duration 124.4 min
- Potapova last15 hard-court average duration 74.5 min
- Both players have similar second-set competitiveness
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Potapova's strong first-set conversion rate and home advantage give her a slight edge in the opening set.
- Potapova first-set win conversion career 84%
- Jeanjean first-set win conversion career 89%
- Potapova last15 first-serve points won 62.6% vs Jeanjean 64%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAnastasia PotapovaEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double-fault rates, making Over 9.5 total double faults likely.
- Potapova last15 double faults per match 4.6
- Jeanjean last15 double faults per match 6.1
- Combined average double faults per match 10.7
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rates suggest a moderate chance of exceeding 5.5 total aces, though not a strong lean.
- Potapova last15 aces per match 1.5
- Jeanjean last15 aces per match 2.3
- Combined average aces per match 3.8
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Anastasia Potapova has been highly reliable when projected to win

Anastasia Potapova has fulfilled 10 of 14 win predictions, a 71% success rate. Her average estimated probability in those matches was 67.4%, with an expected 9.4 wins, so she has slightly outperformed expectations. Notably, all four misses came when she was the away player, while she has won every home match when favored.

Recent evidence for Anastasia Potapova14 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·WTA Washington

#18Diana Shnaider2-0#27Anastasia Potapova

BetBugsAnastasia Potapova to win·58%

Missed

31 Jul 2026

WTA Washington

#18Diana Shnaider2-0#27Anastasia Potapova

Anastasia Potapova to win

58%probability

Diana Shnaider won

Missed

29 Jul·WTA Washington

#28Anastasia Potapova2-0#469Venus Williams

BetBugsAnastasia Potapova to win·78%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

WTA Washington

#28Anastasia Potapova2-0#469Venus Williams

Anastasia Potapova to win

78%probability

Anastasia Potapova won

Matched

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#48Jessica Bouzas Maneiro2-0#28Anastasia Potapova

BetBugsAnastasia Potapova to win·62%

Missed

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#48Jessica Bouzas Maneiro2-0#28Anastasia Potapova

Anastasia Potapova to win

62%probability

Jessica Bouzas Maneiro won

Missed

10 Jun·WTA 's-Hertogenbosch

#30Anastasia Potapova2-1#128Suzan Lamens

BetBugsAnastasia Potapova to win·78%

Matched

10 Jun 2026

WTA 's-Hertogenbosch

#30Anastasia Potapova2-1#128Suzan Lamens

Anastasia Potapova to win

78%probability

Anastasia Potapova won

Matched

1 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#30Anastasia Potapova1-2#24Anna Kalinskaya

BetBugsAnastasia Potapova to win·55%

Missed

1 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#30Anastasia Potapova1-2#24Anna Kalinskaya

Anastasia Potapova to win

55%probability

Anna Kalinskaya won

Missed

Previous match context available

Anastasia Potapova

7W 8L

6-2 6-2#109Darja Semenistaja

6-2 6-4#209Sloane Stephens

6-1 6-1#9Elina Svitolina

6-4 6-2#64Elena Gabriela Ruse

6-1 6-2#16Diana Shnaider

6-3 6-3#618Venus Williams

6-2 6-3#105Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

6-1 ret.#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-1 2-0 ret.#53Zeynep Sonmez

6-7(5) 6-4 6-4#164Suzan Lamens

6-4 2-6 7-6(7)#23Anna Kalinskaya

4-6 7-6(1) 6-4#4Cori Gauff

5-7 6-4 6-2#62Katie Boulter

6-1 6-2#72Maya Joint

7-6(6) 6-2#3Jessica Pegula

Leolia Jeanjean

9W 6L

6-4 4-6 6-2#92Kamilla Rakhimova

6-2 6-4#119Lucrezia Stefanini

3-6 6-3 6-2#144Himeno Sakatsume

7-5 6-3#41Magdalena Frech

2-6 6-2 6-3#173Lin Zhu

7-5 7-6(3)#52Mayar Sherif

3-6 6-3 6-4#222Alice Tubello

1-6 6-4 7-5#104Francesca Jones

6-4 6-3#321Amandine Monnot

6-4 6-3#45Daria Snigur

6-4 4-6 7-6(6)#106Veronika Erjavec

6-3 6-4#78Katie Volynets

6-3 6-2#161Ekaterine Gorgodze

4-6 6-2 6-3#206Xiaodi You

6-1 4-6 6-3#233Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

APAnastasia PotapovaPotapova

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Leolia JeanjeanJeanjeanLJ

Leolia Jeanjean carries the stronger recent form — Anastasia Potapova's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1550.9%+5.3pp56.2%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1562.6%+1.4pp64.0%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1540.6%+7.0pp47.6%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/151.5+0.82.3

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/154.61.5 fewer6.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1543.8%—44.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1548.0%+4.1pp43.9%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1548.2%+9.0pp57.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1547.8%+2.8pp50.6%

Shot making · 1–2Limited data · 5 vs 5

Winners / Match5/15 · 5/1521.2+1.222.4

Unforced Errors / Match5/15 · 5/1537.615.8 fewer21.8

Net Pts Won5/15 · 5/1570.0%+3.9pp66.1%

Serve · 1–4

50.9%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+5.3pp56.2%

62.6%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+1.4pp64.0%

40.6%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+7.0pp47.6%

1.5Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+0.82.3

4.6Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.5 fewer6.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

43.8%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—44.2%

Pressure · 1–1

48.0%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+4.1pp43.9%

48.2%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+9.0pp57.2%

Points · 0–1

47.8%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.8pp50.6%

Shot making · 1–2Limited data · 5 vs 5

21.2Winners5/15 · 5/15+1.222.4

37.6Unforced Errors5/15 · 5/1515.8 fewer21.8

70.0%Net Pts Won5/15 · 5/15+3.9pp66.1%

Anastasia Potapova

Leolia Jeanjean

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Anastasia Potapova

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Anastasia Potapova

Leolia Jeanjean

Stat Battle