SpainMallorca - SpainFinished

Predictions graded

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg #332France1Michele Ribecai #265Italy2

Sets 6-3 · 2-6 · 2-6Wed 2 Sept 2026, 13:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–350%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMichele Ribecai · 67 places

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

France

Reached a career-high No. 193 on 17 November 2025. Profile listings identify hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #332
Peak ranking: #193 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Michele Ribecai

Italy

Ribecai reached a career-high No. 259 on June 22, 2026 and remains close to that mark. No reliable preferred-surface designation was found.

Current ranking: #265
Peak ranking: #259 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 22:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Ribecai's superior recent hard-court form and higher ranking give him a modest edge over Gueymard Wayenburg, whose hard-court sample is too small to trust.

The match is expected to be competitive, with both players averaging over 23 games per match. Best bet: Ribecai to win at 1.80 (edge 2.4 points).

Context

Ribecai, 264th, has a 71.4% win rate on hard courts in his last 7 matches, while Wayenburg, 332nd, has played only 2 hard-court matches in his last 15, winning both.
Ribecai's recent hard-court sample is more extensive and successful, but Wayenburg's two wins came against opponents ranked 485 and 491, so the level of competition is lower. This suggests Ribecai may have an edge on this surface, but the small sample for Wayenburg limits confidence.
- Ribecai's last 7 hard-court matches: 5 wins, 2 losses (71.4% win rate).
- Wayenburg's last 2 hard-court matches: 2 wins, 0 losses, but opponents ranked 485 and 491.
- Wayenburg's overall last 15 record is 7-8, with 13 of those matches on clay.
Wayenburg is on a two-match winning streak, while Ribecai lost his last match in straight sets to George Loffhagen, ranked 371.
Wayenburg's recent wins came against opponents ranked 485 and 491, so the quality of opposition is modest. Ribecai's loss to Loffhagen may indicate a dip in form, but he had won three matches earlier in that tournament.
- Wayenburg's last two matches: wins over Callejon Hernando (485) and Almazan Valiente (491).
- Ribecai's last match: 6-2 6-2 loss to George Loffhagen (371).
- Ribecai's last 5 matches: 3 wins, 2 losses.
Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg, ATP No. 332, came through qualifying to reach the Mallorca main draw.
He played two qualifying matches on consecutive days, finishing on 1 September, so he has less recovery time than Michele Ribecai before this first-round match.
- The 1 September qualifying-final result was 6-4, 6-1.
- The preceding qualifying match on 31 August went to three sets.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ReportedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 22:32 · Europe/BucharestSofascorewww.sofascore.com · 1 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Ribecai's superior recent hard-court form and higher ranking give him the edge, though Gueymard Wayenburg's perfect hard-court record in a small sample adds uncertainty.
- Ribecai has a 71.4% win rate on hard courts in his last 7 matches, while Gueymard Wayenburg is 2-0 on hard in his last 2 matches.
- Ribecai's last 15 overall record is 6-9 (40%), but his hard-court recent form is stronger with 5 wins in 7 matches.
- Gueymard Wayenburg's last 15 overall record is 7-8 (46.7%), but 13 of those matches were on clay where he went 5-8.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMichele RibecaiEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches have consistently exceeded 21.5 total games, and their competitive stats suggest a close contest.
- Gueymard Wayenburg's last 15 matches averaged 23.5 games per match.
- Ribecai's last 15 matches averaged 23.2 games per match.
- Both players have similar games-won percentages around 48-49% in their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be closely contested given both players' recent first-set game averages near 10.
- Gueymard Wayenburg's last 15 matches averaged 10.1 games in the first set.
- Ribecai's last 15 matches averaged 9.8 games in the first set.
- Both players have similar first-set competitiveness with tiebreaks occurring in recent matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ribecai's strong first-set performance on hard courts gives him a slight edge, but Gueymard Wayenburg's recent qualifying wins show he can start fast.
- Ribecai has won the first set in 5 of his last 7 hard-court matches.
- Gueymard Wayenburg won the first set in both of his recent hard-court matches.
- Ribecai's first-set win conversion rate is 84% career-wide.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMichele RibecaiEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages slightly exceed the line, but Ribecai's low ace count makes this a borderline call.
- Gueymard Wayenburg averages 5.3 aces per match in his last 15 matches.
- Ribecai averages 2.3 aces per match in his last 15 matches.
- Combined average aces per match is 7.6, just above the 7.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages exceed the line, but Ribecai's lower double fault rate adds uncertainty.
- Gueymard Wayenburg averages 4.7 double faults per match in his last 15 matches.
- Ribecai averages 2.9 double faults per match in his last 15 matches.
- Combined average double faults per match is 7.6, above the 6.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

7W 8L

6-4 6-1#485Sergio Callejon Hernando

3-6 6-4 6-4#491Izan Almazan Valiente

6-4 6-4#231Guido Ivan Justo

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-2#310Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

7-6(4) 6-3#149Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7-6(1) 7-5#178Jerome Kym

7-6(4) 4-6 6-3#523Alexander Donski

6-4 6-2#258Maks Kasnikowski

4-6 6-3 6-4#189Lautaro Midon

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#177Max Alcala Gurri

6-2 7-5#177Max Alcala Gurri

7-5 6-1#625Gabriel Ghetu

6-4 6-3#159Clement Tabur

6-4 6-3#51Sebastian Baez

6-3 6-4#162Borna Gojo

Michele Ribecai

6W 9L

6-2 6-2#371George Loffhagen

6-3 6-4#299Johannus Monday

6-7(3) 6-3 6-3#327Anton Matusevich

6-1 6-2—Mark Ceban

4-6 7-5 6-2#187Andrea Guerrieri

7-5 6-4#641Tomasz Berkieta

6-2 6-1#603Iliyan Radulov

3-6 7-5 6-2#262Juan Bautista Torres

4-6 6-1 6-3#140Hugo Dellien

6-1 6-2#321Gonzalo Villanueva

4-6 7-5 6-4#254Matej Dodig

6-3 6-3#271Franco Roncadelli

7-6(4) 6-4#728Daniele Rapagnetta

7-5 6-7(5) 6-1#494Niels Mcdonald

2-6 6-1 6-4#82Facundo Diaz Acosta

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SWSascha Gueymard WayenburgWayenburg

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Michele RibecaiRibecaiMR

Michele Ribecai carries the stronger recent form — Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In57.8%—58.2%

1st Serve Won69.5%+4.4pp65.1%

2nd Serve Won48.9%+1.1pp50.0%

Aces / Match5.3+3.02.3

Double Faults / Match4.71.8 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.3%+2.4pp38.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted33.3%+7.8pp41.1%

Break Pts Saved65.3%+1.5pp63.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.1%—49.1%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

57.8%1st Serve In—58.2%

69.5%1st Serve Won+4.4pp65.1%

48.9%2nd Serve Won+1.1pp50.0%

5.3Aces / Match+3.02.3

4.7Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

36.3%Return Pts Won+2.4pp38.7%

Pressure · 1–1

33.3%Break Pts Converted+7.8pp41.1%

65.3%Break Pts Saved+1.5pp63.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.1%Total Pts Won—49.1%