SpainMallorca - SpainFinished

Predictions graded

Ivan Ivanov #5422Maximus Jones #489Thailand0

Sets 6-0 · 6-4Wed 2 Sept 2026, 14:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions0–60%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaximus Jones · 53 places

Ivan Ivanov

Bulgarian right-hander born 30 October 2008. The ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; the available official profile showed a July 2026 career-best ranking, while structured data indicates a newer current ranking.

Current ranking: #542
Peak ranking: #542
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Maximus Jones

Thailand

Jones, 21, represents Thailand and is a right-hander. He reached a career-best No. 301 in February 2026; the available profile material does not identify a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #489
Peak ranking: #301 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 22:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Maximus Jones holds a clear edge on hard courts with a superior serve and recent qualifying wins in Mallorca.

Back Jones to win the match and the first set, and consider the over 21.5 total games. Ivanov's weaker serve and limited hard-court sample make him vulnerable, but he could push the match to three sets.

Context

Jones, 489th, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and has played almost all of his recent matches on hard courts.
Jones arrives with two straight wins on this surface, including a 6-2 7-5 victory over world No. 287 Alastair Gray. Ivanov lost his last hard-court match 6-3 6-0 to George Loffhagen. That contrast gives Jones a modest current edge, though both players have mixed overall records in their last 15 matches.
- Jones beat Oskari Paldanius 6-3 6-4 and Alastair Gray 6-2 7-5 in his last two matches, both on hard courts.
- Ivanov lost to George Loffhagen 6-3 6-0 on hard court on August 26.
- Jones is 8-7 in his last 15 matches; Ivanov is 9-6.
Maximus Jones, ATP No. 489, is the away player in this first-round match at the Rafa Nadal Open in Mallorca.
Jones completed qualifying on 1 September, beating Oskari Paldanius 6-3 6-4 to reach the main draw. He enters this match with two extra matches played in the preceding two days, which may affect his freshness against Ivan Ivanov.
- Jones was listed among the six players who qualified for the Rafa Nadal Open main draw on 1 September.
- His qualifying final against Oskari Paldanius was completed 6-3, 6-4 on 1 September.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
- A tracked match on 2026-07-14T00:00:00.000Z against Ilya Ivashka ended by retirement; the stored result was L.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 22:40 · Europe/BucharestSofascorewww.sofascore.com · 1 Sep 2026
Jones's career first-serve win rate is 69%, and his recent hard-court sample shows even stronger serving numbers.
Jones's first-serve effectiveness gives him a clear advantage in holding serve. Ivanov's lower first-serve win rate on hard courts suggests he may face more pressure on his own service games. However, Jones also double-faults more often (3.4 per match vs 1.8 for Ivanov), which could give Ivanov some openings.
- Jones: 6.1 aces per match, 72.6% first-serve points won, 3.4 double faults per match in last 15 matches.
- Ivanov on hard courts: 2 aces per match, 55.9% first-serve points won, 1.8 double faults per match in last 5 hard-court matches.
- Jones's career first-serve win rate is 69%; Ivanov's is 63%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Jones's superior hard-court serve and recent qualifying form give him the edge over Ivanov's weaker hard-court numbers.
- Jones last15 hard record 8-7 (53.3%) vs Ivanov 2-3 (40%) on hard
- Jones first serve points won 72.6% vs Ivanov 55.9% on hard
- Jones aces per match 6.1 vs Ivanov 2.0 on hard
- Jones has won two qualifying matches in Mallorca this week
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMaximus JonesEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive hard-court profiles, suggesting a longer match with over 21.5 games.
- Jones average match duration 113.1 minutes
- Ivanov average match duration 109.1 minutes on hard
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 50%
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive with both players holding serve often.
- Jones first serve points won 72.6%
- Ivanov first serve points won 55.9%
- Both players have break point conversion rates around 50%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jones's strong serving should allow him to start fast and take the opening set.
- Jones first serve points won 72.6% on hard
- Ivanov first serve points won 55.9% on hard
- Jones has won first set in 6 of last 8 hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMaximus JonesEstimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jones's high ace count should push the total aces over 8.5.
- Jones aces per match 6.1 on hard
- Ivanov aces per match 2.0 on hard
- Combined average aces per match 8.1
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' double fault rates suggest a total over 4.5.
- Jones double faults per match 3.4 on hard
- Ivanov double faults per match 1.8 on hard
- Combined average double faults per match 5.2
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Ivan Ivanov

9W 6L

6-3 6-0#371George Loffhagen

6-0 3-6 6-4#455Ryan Peniston

6-4 6-2#170Elmer Moller

6-0 6-0#345Ognjen Milic

6-0 7-6(0)#296Carl Emil Overbeck

6-3 7-5—Patrik Munkhammar

6-3 6-0—Sebastian Grundtvig

7-6(5) 6-2—Gustav Theilgaard

6-0 4-6 7-5#225Oliver Crawford

7-6(5) 2-6 7-5#422Massimo Giunta

6-2 6-2#185Clement Chidekh

6-3 6-4#360Lui Maxted

7-6(3) 6-3#430Niels Visker

4-6 6-1 6-1#800Dinko Dinev

6-4 6-3#826Conor Gannon

Maximus Jones

8W 7L

6-3 6-4#824Oskari Paldanius

6-2 7-5#287Alastair Gray

6-2 3-1 ret.#393Ilya Ivashka

6-0 7-6(5)#293Matthew Dellavedova

6-3 3-6 6-1#539Kokoro Isomura

6-1 4-6 6-2#888Ryota Tanuma

3-6 6-4 6-0#877Makoto Ochi

7-5 6-4#717Hunter Heck

6-4 7-5#835Jangjun Kim

6-2 6-3#1581Shunrou Takeshima

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#612Mukund Sasikumar

6-7(6) 6-3 6-1#353Philip Sekulic

6-2 6-7(5) 6-4#598Amit Vales

6-4 7-6(3)#569Sidharth Rawat

7-6(3) 6-4#331Akira Santillan

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

IIIvan IvanovIvanov

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Maximus JonesJonesMJ

Maximus Jones carries the stronger recent form — Ivan Ivanov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In65.1%+4.6pp60.5%

1st Serve Won62.9%+9.7pp72.6%

2nd Serve Won50.9%+3.2pp47.7%

Aces / Match3.0+3.16.1

Double Faults / Match1.61.8 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.7%+3.0pp35.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted48.1%+4.5pp52.6%

Break Pts Saved59.1%+4.6pp63.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.1%+1.1pp50.2%

Serve · 3–2

65.1%1st Serve In+4.6pp60.5%

62.9%1st Serve Won+9.7pp72.6%

50.9%2nd Serve Won+3.2pp47.7%

3.0Aces / Match+3.16.1

1.6Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer3.4

Return · 1–0

38.7%Return Pts Won+3.0pp35.7%

Pressure · 0–2

48.1%Break Pts Converted+4.5pp52.6%

59.1%Break Pts Saved+4.6pp63.7%

Points · 0–1

49.1%Total Pts Won+1.1pp50.2%