SpainMallorca - SpainFinished

Predictions graded

Felipe Meligeni Alves #567Brazil0Alejo Sanchez Quilez #395Spain2

Sets 5-7 · 4-6Wed 2 Sept 2026, 17:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions7–188%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlejo Sanchez Quilez · 172 places

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Brazil

Brazilian right-hander; career-high ATP singles ranking No. 117 came in April 2025. His recorded career match volume is heavily concentrated on clay.

Current ranking: #567
Peak ranking: #117 · 2025
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Spain

Reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 387 on 24 August 2026. No reliable public declaration of a preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #395
Peak ranking: #387 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 15:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Alejo Sanchez Quilez has a significant edge on hard courts with an 8-2 recent record and superior serve/return metrics, while Felipe Meligeni Alves has struggled.

Back Sanchez Quilez to win the match and the first set, as the odds offer value.

Context

Sanchez Quilez, 22, is a Spanish right-hander ranked 395 and has built a 19-6 hard-court record in 2026.
His recent hard-court results are stronger than Meligeni Alves's, who has lost his last two hard-court matches and has only a 50% win rate in his last four on the surface. Sanchez Quilez's 80% win rate in his last 10 hard-court matches suggests he is comfortable on this surface, but the sample is small and mostly against lower-ranked opponents.
- Sanchez Quilez last 15 hard-court record: 8-2 (80%)
- Meligeni Alves last 15 hard-court record: 2-2 (50%)
- Sanchez Quilez 2026 hard-court season record: 19-6
Meligeni Alves, 28, is a Brazilian right-hander ranked 465 and has played mostly on clay this season.
He has played four hard-court matches since August 17, including a three-set win and two straight-set losses. That workload could leave him less fresh than Sanchez Quilez, who last played on August 9 and has had more rest.
- Meligeni Alves recent hard-court matches: Aug 24 loss, Aug 19 loss, Aug 18 win, Aug 17 win
- Sanchez Quilez last match: Aug 9 win

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Sanchez Quilez's superior recent hard-court form and stronger serve/return metrics give him the edge in this Bo3 match.
- Alejo Sanchez Quilez is 8-2 on hard courts in his last 10 matches, while Felipe Meligeni Alves is 2-2 on hard in his last 4.
- Sanchez Quilez has a 72.7% first-serve points won on hard in his last 10 matches, compared to Meligeni Alves' 67.4% in his last 4 hard matches.
- Sanchez Quilez has a 52.5% break-point conversion on hard in his last 10 matches, while Meligeni Alves has 44% in his last 4 hard matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlejo Sanchez QuilezEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined recent match lengths and tiebreak tendencies suggest a competitive match that could exceed 21.5 games.
- Meligeni Alves' last 15 matches average 23.5 games per match.
- Sanchez Quilez's last 15 matches average 21.3 games per match.
- Both players have a tendency to play tiebreaks, with Meligeni Alves having a 59% career tiebreak win rate and Sanchez Quilez 63%.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players showing the ability to push sets to 10 or more games.
- Meligeni Alves' recent hard-court matches have seen first sets with 9, 7, 13, and 13 games.
- Sanchez Quilez's recent hard-court matches have seen first sets with 10, 9, 13, 13, and 10 games.
- Both players have been involved in tiebreaks in recent matches, indicating close opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Sanchez Quilez's recent hard-court dominance and Meligeni Alves' slow starts on hard make the away player likely to take the opening set.
- Sanchez Quilez has won 8 of his last 10 hard-court matches, often taking the first set.
- Meligeni Alves lost his last two hard-court matches in straight sets, including a 6-3 6-4 loss to Dalibor Svrcina.
- Sanchez Quilez's first-set win conversion is 90% career-wide, indicating strong starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlejo Sanchez QuilezEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low double-fault rates, making under 3.5 double faults a reasonable expectation.
- Meligeni Alves averages 1.1 double faults per match in his last 15 matches.
- Sanchez Quilez averages 1.7 double faults per match in his last 15 matches.
- Combined, they average 2.8 double faults per match, which is below the 3.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rates of both players suggest a total of over 6.5 aces is likely in this match.
- Meligeni Alves averages 3.7 aces per match in his last 15 matches.
- Sanchez Quilez averages 3.3 aces per match in his last 15 matches.
- On hard courts, Sanchez Quilez averages 4.3 aces per match in his last 10 matches.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches suggests a tiebreak is likely in this encounter.
- Meligeni Alves has played 4 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- Sanchez Quilez has played 5 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- Both players have high tiebreak win percentages (59% for Meligeni Alves, 63% for Sanchez Quilez), indicating they often reach tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Felipe Meligeni Alves

12W 3L

6-3 6-4#134Dalibor Svrcina

6-1 6-4#200Moise Kouame

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-2#342Dali Blanch

7-6(2) 7-6(1)#203Luka Pavlovic

6-3 7-5#468Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

3-6 6-2 6-3#642Maximo Zeitune

6-4 5-7 6-4#529Joao Eduardo Schiessl

7-6(10) 6-4#900Enzo Kohlmann De Freitas

6-4 6-4#515Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

6-4 6-3#468Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

7-5 6-4#777Lucas Andrade Da Silva

6-3 6-0#261Matias Soto

3-6 7-6(2) 6-3#878Bastian Malla

6-2 6-1#529Joao Eduardo Schiessl

4-6 6-4 7-6(0)#777Lucas Andrade Da Silva

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

10W 5L

6-4 6-4#491Izan Almazan Valiente

6-3 7-6(5)#729Aryan Shah

7-6(2) 6-2#894Andrea Colombo

7-6(0) 7-5#762Goncalo Marques

6-4 6-3#708Rafael Izquierdo Luque

6-4 7-6(6)#225Oliver Crawford

6-3 6-3#356Antoine Ghibaudo

6-4 7-6(4)#355Tiago Pereira

6-4 6-2#305Yanki Erel

6-3 6-4#474Pavel Lagutin

7-6(9) 6-3#887Orlando Luz

6-3 7-5#339Mathys Erhard

6-7(5) 6-4 6-2#266Mili Poljicak

6-3 6-3#346Oriol Roca Batalla

6-2 7-5#687Samuel Vincent Ruggeri

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FAFelipe Meligeni AlvesAlves

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Alejo Sanchez QuilezQuilezAQ

Felipe Meligeni Alves carries the stronger recent form — Alejo Sanchez Quilez's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In67.9%+8.9pp59.0%

1st Serve Won68.4%+3.9pp72.3%

2nd Serve Won52.7%+1.1pp53.8%

Aces / Match3.7+0.43.3

Double Faults / Match1.10.6 fewer1.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.9%+1.0pp40.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted52.5%+7.1pp45.4%

Break Pts Saved73.0%+15.5pp57.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won52.8%—52.5%

Serve · 3–2

67.9%1st Serve In+8.9pp59.0%

68.4%1st Serve Won+3.9pp72.3%

52.7%2nd Serve Won+1.1pp53.8%

3.7Aces / Match+0.43.3

1.1Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer1.7

Return · 1–0

41.9%Return Pts Won+1.0pp40.9%

Pressure · 2–0

52.5%Break Pts Converted+7.1pp45.4%

73.0%Break Pts Saved+15.5pp57.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.8%Total Pts Won—52.5%