Plovdiv - BulgariaFinished

Predictions graded

Nikita Mashtakov #654Ukraine2Stefan Popovic #630Serbia0

Sets 7-5 · 7-6Tue 1 Sept 2026, 11:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions5–183%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageStefan Popovic · 24 places

Nikita Mashtakov

Ukraine

Current ranking No. 654 is supplied by structured match data. Reliable public age, career-high and surface-preference information was not surfaced in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #654
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Stefan Popovic

Serbia

Popovic, 23, is the right-hander in this matchup. He reached a career-high No. 410 on 20 May 2024.

Current ranking: #630
Peak ranking: #410 · 2024
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 15:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Mashtakov is in better form and has stronger clay stats, but his odds are too short to back.

The best value is over 21.5 total games at 1.85, with under 5.5 aces also appealing. Avoid the -5.5 game handicap on Mashtakov.

Context

Mashtakov, 576th, has built a 25-9 clay record in 2026 and is comfortable in long three-set battles.
Mashtakov's 80% win rate in the last 15 matches is backed by a 54.8% games-won percentage and a 63.2% sets-won rate. Popovic's 60% win rate is solid but includes a straight-set loss to 900th-ranked Sebastian Dominko, showing vulnerability against lower-ranked players. Mashtakov's consistency gives him an edge, but Popovic's first-serve percentage of 71% could keep him competitive.
- Mashtakov last 15 overall record: 12-3 (80%)
- Popovic last 15 overall record: 9-6 (60%)
- Popovic lost to 900th-ranked Sebastian Dominko 6-1 6-2 on Aug 27
- Mashtakov games won percentage: 54.8% vs Popovic 52.5%
Mashtakov, ATP No. 576, needed a 3h 11m qualifying win on 30 August before winning again on 31 August to reach the main draw.
That long first qualifier added heavy court time just two days before this match. He still won the next day, so the workload is a concern but not a clear sign of fatigue.
- The 30 August qualifying match against Basel was recorded at 3h 11m 33s.
- Stored recent sample: 4 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 15:15 · Europe/BucharestPlovdiv 3 Results | ATP Tourwww.atptour.com · 30 Aug 2026
Popovic's career first-serve percentage is 70%, and his recent 15-match sample shows 71% first serves in.
Popovic's high first-serve percentage gives him a reliable foundation, and his 63% first-serve points won is slightly below Mashtakov's 63.7%. Mashtakov's return points won of 44.9% is average, so Popovic may hold serve more easily. However, Popovic's second-serve points won is only 47.1%, which Mashtakov can attack.
- Popovic first serve in: 71% (last 15)
- Popovic first serve points won: 63%
- Mashtakov return points won: 44.9%
- Popovic second serve points won: 47.1%

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Nikita Mashtakov

1.18fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Mashtakov's stronger recent form and better clay-court numbers give him a moderate edge, but the odds imply a much higher probability than the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Mashtakov's stronger recent form and better clay-court numbers give him a moderate edge in this Bo3 match.
- Mashtakov last 15 on clay: 12-3 record, 54.8% games won, 52% total points won
- Popovic last 15 on clay: 9-6 record, 52.5% games won, 51.6% total points won
- Mashtakov has won 8 of his last 9 matches, including two wins in this tournament
- Popovic lost to #900 Dominko 6-1 6-2 in late August, showing inconsistency
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNikita MashtakovEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Mashtakov's matches tend to be longer and more competitive, pushing total games over the line.
- Mashtakov average match duration last 15: 155.2 minutes
- Popovic average match duration last 15: 112.4 minutes
- Mashtakov's last 15 matches average 25.8 games per match
- Popovic's last 15 matches average 21.5 games per match
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown ability to extend first sets, making over 9.5 games plausible.
- Mashtakov's recent first sets often go to tiebreaks or 7-5
- Popovic has played several tight first sets recently
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mashtakov's recent momentum and solid first-set record support a slight edge in the opening set.
- Mashtakov first set win conversion career: 83%
- Popovic first set win conversion career: 88%
- Mashtakov has won first set in 3 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonNikita MashtakovEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace counts, making under 5.5 total aces likely.
- Mashtakov averages 1.8 aces per match in last 15
- Popovic averages 0.9 aces per match in last 15
- Combined average aces per match: 2.7
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average is right at the line, giving a coin-flip chance for over.
- Mashtakov averages 3.2 double faults per match
- Popovic averages 2.3 double faults per match
- Combined average double faults: 5.5
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The -5.5 game handicap is too aggressive given Mashtakov's recent match margins.

Nikita Mashtakov

12W 3L

6-4 6-4#838Jannik Opitz

7-6(2) 6-7(5) 6-1—Valentin Basel

7-5 6-4#302Daniel Michalski

6-0 6-7(3) 6-1#436Vladyslav Orlov

6-7(6) 7-6(4) 6-2#574Kirill Kivattsev

6-3 6-3#829Tom Zeuch

2-6 6-3 6-4—Thilo Behrmann

1-6 6-4 7-5#531Marcel Zielinski

7-6(5) 4-6 6-0—Alexander Wagner

7-6(5) 6-3—Kabeer Kapasi

6-4 5-7 7-6(6)—Leyton Rivera

6-2 6-4#346Oriol Roca Batalla

6-2 6-7(5) 6-0#517Gianmarco Ferrari

7-6(5) 6-4#707Franco Ribero

7-5 7-5—Sebastian Sec

Stefan Popovic

9W 6L

6-4 6-1—Aleksandar Tolev

6-1 3-6 6-3—Kaloyan Shikov

6-1 6-2#900Sebastian Dominko

6-4 6-1—Piotr Galus

7-6(6) 3-6 7-5#793Luca Castagnola

7-6(3) 6-4#648Bruno Fernandez

7-5 6-2#505Bor Artnak

6-2 6-3—Oscar Brown

6-1 7-5#240Max Houkes

2-6 6-0 6-4#436Vladyslav Orlov

6-4 7-6(2)#1557Nicolas Bruna

6-3 6-3#845Vuk Radjenovic

2-6 6-1 7-5#900Gorazd Srbljak

6-7(2) 6-1 6-2#897Evgenii Tiurnev

6-2 6-1—Lazar Nikodijevic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NMNikita MashtakovMashtakov

Last 15

3–3

9 core stats · 3 even

Stefan PopovicPopovicSP

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In63.2%+7.8pp71.0%

1st Serve Won63.7%—63.0%

2nd Serve Won52.0%+4.9pp47.1%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/151.8+0.90.9

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.20.9 fewer2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won44.9%—44.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted39.8%+11.9pp51.7%

Break Pts Saved63.0%+6.1pp56.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won52.0%—51.6%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

63.2%1st Serve In+7.8pp71.0%

63.7%1st Serve Won—63.0%

52.0%2nd Serve Won+4.9pp47.1%

1.8Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+0.90.9

3.2Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.9 fewer2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

44.9%Return Pts Won—44.8%

Pressure · 1–1

39.8%Break Pts Converted+11.9pp51.7%

63.0%Break Pts Saved+6.1pp56.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.0%Total Pts Won—51.6%