United StatesWTA US OpenFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Kaitlin Quevedo #110Spain0Elise Mertens #23Belgium2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Tue 1 Sept 2026, 20:25 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions7–0100%

Edges6–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageElise Mertens · 87 places

Kaitlin Quevedo

Spain

Reached a career-high No. 94 in August 2026. The ITF lists clay as her preferred surface; her ranking improved from No. 144 at the end of 2025.

Current ranking: #110
Peak ranking: #94 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 167 cm

Elise Mertens

Belgium

Reached a career-high No. 12 on 26 November 2018. Her major singles results include the 2018 Australian Open semifinal and the 2026 Wimbledon quarterfinal.

Current ranking: #23
Peak ranking: #12 · 2018
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 179 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Aug 2026, 03:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Elise Mertens is a strong favorite over Kaitlin Quevedo due to superior ranking, hard-court experience, and recent form.

The best betting value is on Mertens -3.5 games (edge 5.4pts) and under 21.5 total games (edge 2.1pts), while match-winner and straight-sets markets are overpriced.

Context

Mertens, 24th in the world, is a seasoned tour player with a career 63% win rate and extensive Grand Slam experience. Quevedo, ranked 107th, is a 22-year-old Spaniard who has spent most of 2026 on clay.
Mertens' recent hard-court results include straight-set wins over Yuliia Starodubtseva and Panna Udvardy, showing she is comfortable on the surface. Quevedo's only hard-court match in her last 15 was a three-set loss to Ekaterina Ovcharenko, leaving her with little recent evidence on this surface.
- Mertens is 3-2 on hard courts in her last five matches, with wins over Starodubtseva (74) and Udvardy (76).
- Quevedo has played only one hard-court match in her last 15, a loss to Ovcharenko (639).
- Quevedo's 2026 surface record is 23-10 on clay but just 3-3 on hard courts.
Quevedo's last-15 stats show a first-serve percentage of 60.1% and a second-serve win rate of 43.4%, both below tour average. Mertens wins 41.2% of return points, indicating she can pressure weaker serves.
If Quevedo cannot improve her first-serve consistency, Mertens will have many opportunities to attack her second serve. Quevedo's break-point save rate of 59.9% suggests she often faces pressure on her own serve.
- Quevedo's first-serve percentage over her last 15 matches is 60.1%.
- Quevedo wins only 43.4% of second-serve points.
- Mertens wins 41.2% of return points in her last 15 matches.
Mertens, 29, has been a top-30 player for years and has 509 career wins. Quevedo, 22, is ranked 107th and has never played in the main draw of a Grand Slam.
The pressure of a Grand Slam first round can affect less experienced players. Mertens' familiarity with the stage and her ability to handle big moments should give her an edge in tight situations.
- Mertens has 509 career wins and 806 matches played.
- Quevedo has 159 career wins and 234 matches played.
- This is Quevedo's first US Open main-draw appearance.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Elise Mertens

1.15fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Mertens' superior ranking, hard-court pedigree, and recent top-100 wins make her a strong favorite over Quevedo, whose recent form is clay-heavy.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Elise Mertens

1.25fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Mertens' strong first-set performances and Quevedo's hard-court struggles point to a likely Mertens first set.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.30fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

The under 2.5 sets price is far shorter than the model estimate, offering no value.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Lean

Elise Mertens 2-0

1.50fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

The quoted price is shorter than the model estimate, so there is no positive value on Mertens 2-0.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Mertens' superior ranking, hard-court pedigree, and recent top-100 wins make her a strong favorite over Quevedo, whose recent form is clay-heavy.
- Elise Mertens is ranked #24 vs Kaitlin Quevedo #107.
- Mertens has 293 career hard-court wins vs Quevedo's 43.
- Mertens' last-15 overall record is 9-6, Quevedo's is 9-6 but mostly on clay.
- Mertens' last-15 hard-court record is 3-2, Quevedo's is 0-1.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonElise MertensEstimated chance78%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Mertens' ability to win sets comfortably against lower-ranked opponents suggests a relatively short match.
- Mertens' last two wins were 6-1 6-4 and 6-1 4-6 6-3 (17 and 26 games).
- Quevedo's only recent hard-court match had 26 games.
- Mertens' hard-court matches average 22.2 games per match.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Mertens' superior ranking and hard-court form suggest she can cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- Mertens' average games won per match is 10.5 in last 15.
- Quevedo's average games won per match is 11.3 in last 15.
- Mertens' hard-court games won percentage is 50.5%.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonElise Mertens -3.5Estimated chance60%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Mertens' strong first-set performances and Quevedo's hard-court struggles point to a likely Mertens first set.
- Mertens won her last two first sets 6-1 and 6-1.
- Quevedo lost her only recent hard-court first set 1-6.
- Mertens' first-set win conversion is 87% career.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonElise MertensEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Mertens' dominance in early sets and Quevedo's hard-court inexperience make a straight-sets win likely.
- Mertens won her last two matches in straight sets.
- Quevedo lost her only recent hard-court match in three sets.
- Mertens' first-set win conversion is 87%.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonElise Mertens 2-0Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Mertens' straight-sets trend and Quevedo's hard-court struggles support under 2.5 sets.
- Mertens won her last two matches in straight sets.
- Quevedo's only recent hard-court match went three sets.
- Mertens' first-set win conversion is 87%.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mertens' ability to win sets decisively reduces the likelihood of a tiebreak.
- Mertens' last two wins had no tiebreaks.
- Quevedo's only recent hard-court match had a tiebreak.
- Mertens' tiebreak win percentage is 47%.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mertens' serve is a weapon, and combined aces could exceed 6.5 if the match extends.
- Mertens averages 5.0 aces per match in last 15.
- Quevedo averages 1.9 aces per match in last 15.
- Mertens averages 5.6 aces per hard-court match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double-fault rates, making over 8.5 plausible.
- Mertens averages 5.6 double faults per match in last 15.
- Quevedo averages 3.8 double faults per match in last 15.
- Mertens averages 6.0 double faults per hard-court match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Elise Mertens has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Elise Mertens has fulfilled 7 of 11 win projections, a 64% success rate. Her average estimated probability was 65.3%, with an expected 7.2 fulfilled predictions, so her actual results are very close to expectation. Notably, all four misses were losses rather than draws, and her current 78% probability sits at the top of her historical range.

Recent evidence for Elise Mertens11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

6 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#23Marie Bouzkova0-2#27Elise Mertens

BetBugsElise Mertens to win·58%

Matched

6 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#23Marie Bouzkova0-2#27Elise Mertens

Elise Mertens to win

58%probability

Elise Mertens won

Matched

2 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#27Elise Mertens2-1#95Maria Timofeeva

BetBugsElise Mertens to win·65%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#27Elise Mertens2-1#95Maria Timofeeva

Elise Mertens to win

65%probability

Elise Mertens won

Matched

30 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#26Elise Mertens2-0#40Laura Siegemund

BetBugsElise Mertens to win·72%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#26Elise Mertens2-0#40Laura Siegemund

Elise Mertens to win

72%probability

Elise Mertens won

Matched

17 Jun·WTA Berlin

#24Elise Mertens0-2#62Nikola Bartunkova

BetBugsElise Mertens to win·72%

Missed

17 Jun 2026

WTA Berlin

#24Elise Mertens0-2#62Nikola Bartunkova

Elise Mertens to win

72%probability

Nikola Bartunkova won

Missed

11 Jun·WTA 's-Hertogenbosch

#88Elena Gabriela Ruse2-0#22Elise Mertens

BetBugsElise Mertens to win·78%

Missed

11 Jun 2026

WTA 's-Hertogenbosch

#88Elena Gabriela Ruse2-0#22Elise Mertens

Elise Mertens to win

78%probability

Elena Gabriela Ruse won

Missed

Previous match context available

Kaitlin Quevedo

9W 6L

6-1 0-6 7-6(5)#639Ekaterina Ovcharenko

2-6 6-3 6-1#116Laura Samson

7-6(5) ret.#104Francesca Jones

7-6(4) 6-3#196Carole Monnet

7-5 6-1#232Irene Burillo

6-1 6-3#892Irina Fetecau

7-5 6-4#49Anhelina Kalinina

6-3 7-6(2)#51Mayar Sherif

6-3 6-1#63Elena Gabriela Ruse

7-5 6-2#85Simona Waltert

4-6 6-4 6-4#232Irene Burillo

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#230Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

6-2 6-3#816Tiana Tian Deng

6-4 6-4#111Claire Liu

6-0 6-3#775Sayaka Ishii

Elise Mertens

9W 6L

6-1 6-4#74Yuliia Starodubtseva

6-1 4-6 6-3#76Panna Udvardy

2-6 6-2 6-2#50Diane Parry

6-1 6-2#13Naomi Osaka

3-6 6-4 6-4#70Anna Bondar

6-3 7-5#6Linda Noskova

6-4 6-4#26Marie Bouzkova

7-6(4) 6-1#2Elena Rybakina

2-6 6-3 6-0#92Maria Timofeeva

6-2 6-4#102Laura Siegemund

6-3 6-3#13Naomi Osaka

6-3 6-3#18Alexandra Eala

6-1 6-4#38Nikola Bartunkova

1-6 6-3 6-0#45Liudmila Samsonova

6-3 6-3#63Elena Gabriela Ruse

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KQKaitlin QuevedoQuevedo

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Elise MertensMertensEM

Kaitlin Quevedo carries the stronger recent form — Elise Mertens's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In60.1%+4.0pp56.1%

1st Serve Won60.7%+10.2pp70.9%

2nd Serve Won43.4%+1.2pp42.2%

Aces / Match1.9+3.15.0

Double Faults / Match3.81.8 fewer5.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won48.8%+7.6pp41.2%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted45.0%—44.9%

Break Pts Saved59.9%+3.4pp63.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.3%+1.3pp50.0%

Serve · 3–2

60.1%1st Serve In+4.0pp56.1%

60.7%1st Serve Won+10.2pp70.9%

43.4%2nd Serve Won+1.2pp42.2%

1.9Aces / Match+3.15.0

3.8Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer5.6

Return · 1–0

48.8%Return Pts Won+7.6pp41.2%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

45.0%Break Pts Converted—44.9%

59.9%Break Pts Saved+3.4pp63.3%

Points · 1–0

51.3%Total Pts Won+1.3pp50.0%

Kaitlin Quevedo

Elise Mertens

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 21.5

Elise Mertens -3.5

Elise Mertens

Elise Mertens

Under 2.5

Elise Mertens 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 2 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Kaitlin Quevedo

Elise Mertens

Stat Battle