ChinaZhangjiagang - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Ilia Simakin #269Russia2Denis Yevseyev #439Kazakhstan0

Sets 6-1 · 6-2Tue 1 Sept 2026, 03:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–450%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIlia Simakin · 170 places

Ilia Simakin

Russia

Reached a career-high No. 214 on 2 February 2026. His 2026 ITF-recorded results were stronger on hard courts than clay.

Current ranking: #269
Peak ranking: #214 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Denis Yevseyev

Kazakhstan

Reached a career-high No. 153 on 22 July 2024. He is currently No. 439; no reliably sourced preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #439
Peak ranking: #153 · 2024
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Aug 2026, 03:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Simakin's superior ranking and hard-court form make him the likely winner, but the 1.22 odds offer no value.

Look to game handicap or totals markets for better opportunities, though confidence is low.

Context

Simakin, 23, is ranked 269 and has a career 65.4% win rate, with most of his success on hard courts.
Simakin's recent hard-court results include wins over opponents ranked 301, 318, and 353, while Yevseyev's only hard-court win in his last three came against a player ranked 628. This suggests Simakin enters with better current form on this surface, though the sample is small.
- Simakin is 4-1 on hard courts in his last five matches, with wins over Florent Bax (301), Fajing Sun (318), and Antoine Ghibaudo (353).
- Yevseyev is 1-2 on hard courts in his last three matches, losing to Yanki Erel (303) and Vadym Ursu (401) and beating Tuncay Duran (628).
Yevseyev, 35, is a veteran with a career 53% win rate and has played over 950 matches.
Yevseyev's first-serve percentage of 77.9% in his last 15 matches is much higher than Simakin's 61%, and he averages only 1.5 double faults per match compared to Simakin's 3.4. However, Simakin wins 70.5% of first-serve points and averages 6.5 aces per match, giving him more free points when the serve lands.
- Yevseyev's last-15 first-serve percentage is 77.9% vs Simakin's 61%.
- Yevseyev averages 1.5 double faults per match vs Simakin's 3.4.
- Simakin wins 70.5% of first-serve points vs Yevseyev's 63.5%.
- Simakin averages 6.5 aces per match vs Yevseyev's 1.8.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ilia Simakin

1.22fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Simakin's strong recent hard-court form and higher ranking support a win, but the odds are heavily skewed and offer no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Simakin's recent hard-court form and higher ranking give him a clear edge over Yevseyev, who has struggled on hard courts recently.
- Simakin last 15 on hard: 4-1 record, 69.2% sets won, 54% games won
- Yevseyev last 15 on hard: 1-2 record, 44.4% sets won, 48.8% games won
- Simakin overall last 15: 46.7% win rate vs Yevseyev 40%
- Simakin ranking 269 vs Yevseyev 440
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIlia SimakinEstimated chance68%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Simakin's recent hard-court matches have been competitive and lengthy, suggesting a higher total games count.
- Simakin last 15 average duration: 125.9 minutes
- Yevseyev last 15 average duration: 90.3 minutes
- Simakin hard court last 5 matches: 3 three-setters
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be competitive given both players' similar return stats and Simakin's tendency for close sets.
- Simakin last 15 hard court: 54% games won, indicating close sets
- Yevseyev last 15 hard court: 48.8% games won
- Both players have similar return points won percentages
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Simakin's superior hard-court game and ranking should allow him to cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- Simakin last 15 hard court: 54% games won
- Yevseyev last 15 hard court: 48.8% games won
- Simakin ranking 269 vs Yevseyev 440
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonIlia Simakin -3.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Simakin's strong first-set conversion rate and superior hard-court serve stats make him the likely first-set winner.
- Simakin first set win conversion career: 91%
- Yevseyev first set win conversion career: 83%
- Simakin hard court last 15: 73.9% first serve points won
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIlia SimakinEstimated chance64%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Simakin's high ace rate on hard courts should push the total aces over the line, with Yevseyev contributing a few.
- Simakin last 15 hard court: 8.0 aces per match
- Yevseyev last 15 hard court: 2.0 aces per match
- Simakin career aces: 1582 in 289 matches (5.5 per match)
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, but the under is slightly favored given the hard court surface and their recent numbers.
- Simakin last 15 hard court: 3.4 double faults per match
- Yevseyev last 15 hard court: 3.0 double faults per match
- Combined average is 6.4, but hard court sample is small
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have similar tiebreak records and Simakin's recent hard-court matches have featured tiebreaks, making a tiebreak likely.
- Simakin tiebreak win percentage career: 53%
- Yevseyev tiebreak win percentage career: 53%
- Simakin last 15 hard court: 2 of 5 matches had tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The heavy favorite price on Simakin ignores his modest overall recent win rate and Yevseyev's competitive return game.

Prediction history

Ilia Simakin has been inconsistent when projected to win

Ilia Simakin has fulfilled 2 of 4 recent win projections. His average estimated probability was 61.8%, but he won only 50% of those matches. Both missed projections were losses, and his current probability of 68% is above his historical range of 58-65%.

Recent evidence for Ilia Simakin4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jun·Brasov - Romania

#302Ilia Simakin2-1#568Maxime Janvier

BetBugsIlia Simakin to win·62%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

Brasov - Romania

#302Ilia Simakin2-1#568Maxime Janvier

Ilia Simakin to win

62%probability

Ilia Simakin won

Matched

28 Jun·Brasov - Romania

#302Ilia Simakin2-1#731Radu David Turcanu

BetBugsIlia Simakin to win·65%

Matched

28 Jun 2026

Brasov - Romania

#302Ilia Simakin2-1#731Radu David Turcanu

Ilia Simakin to win

65%probability

Ilia Simakin won

Matched

22 Jun·Targu Mures - Romania

#299Ilia Simakin1-2#358Marko Topo

BetBugsIlia Simakin to win·62%

Missed

22 Jun 2026

Targu Mures - Romania

#299Ilia Simakin1-2#358Marko Topo

Ilia Simakin to win

62%probability

Marko Topo won

Missed

12 May·Tunis - Tunisia

#245Ilia Simakin1-2#437Laurent Lokoli

BetBugsIlia Simakin to win·58%

Missed

12 May 2026

Tunis - Tunisia

#245Ilia Simakin1-2#437Laurent Lokoli

Ilia Simakin to win

58%probability

Laurent Lokoli won

Missed

Ilia Simakin

7W 8L

5-7 6-2 6-3#341Lucas Poullain

7-6(5) 7-6(2)#353Antoine Ghibaudo

6-0 6-7(7) 6-4#301Florent Bax

6-3 7-6(4)#318Fajing Sun

5-7 6-3 6-4#494Adrian Boitan

7-5 6-3#189Lautaro Midon

4-6 7-5 7-6(7)#144Tomas Barrios Vera

3-6 6-4 6-2#373Dimitar Kuzmanov

4-6 6-2 7-6(4)#566Maxime Janvier

4-6 6-1 6-2#755Radu David Turcanu

6-4 4-6 6-2#339Marko Topo

6-3 6-4#379Jacopo Vasami

3-6 7-6(5) 7-6(5)#281Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-3 6-4#166Marco Cecchinato

6-4 6-7(6) 6-2#217Liam Draxl

Denis Yevseyev

6W 9L

6-3 7-6(3)#621Svyatoslav Gulin

6-2 6-3#675Mirza Basic

7-6(3) 6-7(5) 6-4—Jannik Maute

6-3 6-4#742Matteo Covato

6-3 6-1#249Matej Dodig

7-5 7-5#570Saba Purtseladze

7-6(4) 4-6 7-5—Noel Larwig

6-4 4-6 6-1#303Yanki Erel

4-6 6-3 6-3#401Vadym Ursu

6-7(5) 6-1 6-3#628Tuncay Duran

6-2 6-3#268Dominic Stricker

6-3 6-0#212Guy Den Ouden

6-3 6-0#534Gerard Campana Lee

6-2 6-4—Leonardo Borrelli

3-6 6-1 6-3#374Andrey Chepelev

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ISIlia SimakinSimakin

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Denis YevseyevYevseyevDY

Ilia Simakin carries the stronger recent form — Denis Yevseyev's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In61.0%+16.9pp77.9%

1st Serve Won70.5%+7.0pp63.5%

2nd Serve Won52.0%+10.5pp41.5%

Aces / Match6.5+4.71.8

Double Faults / Match3.41.9 fewer1.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.0%+1.6pp38.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted33.9%+5.5pp39.4%

Break Pts Saved55.6%+5.6pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won49.8%+1.3pp48.5%

Serve · 3–2

61.0%1st Serve In+16.9pp77.9%

70.5%1st Serve Won+7.0pp63.5%

52.0%2nd Serve Won+10.5pp41.5%

6.5Aces / Match+4.71.8

3.4Double Faults / Match1.9 fewer1.5

Return · 0–1

37.0%Return Pts Won+1.6pp38.6%

Pressure · 1–1

33.9%Break Pts Converted+5.5pp39.4%

55.6%Break Pts Saved+5.6pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

49.8%Total Pts Won+1.3pp48.5%

Ilia Simakin

Denis Yevseyev

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ilia Simakin

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Ilia Simakin @ 1.22

Ilia Simakin

Denis Yevseyev

Stat Battle