Plovdiv - BulgariaFinished

Predictions graded

Filip Jeff Planinsek #5020Ignacio Parisca #721Venezuela2

Sets 2-6 · 4-6Tue 1 Sept 2026, 14:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions0–70%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFilip Jeff Planinsek · 219 places

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Planinsek, 25, is a right-hander from Maribor. He reached his current and career-best ranking of No. 502 on 31 August 2026; clay accounts for most of his recorded professional matches.

Current ranking: #502
Peak ranking: #502 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Ignacio Parisca

Venezuela

Parisca, 21, has played the overwhelming majority of his recorded professional singles matches on clay. His current ranking of No. 721 is also his listed career high.

Current ranking: #721
Peak ranking: #721
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 15:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Planinsek's strong clay form and dominant serve give him the edge over Parisca, but the odds offer no value.

Consider the over on total aces or a tiebreak occurring as alternative angles.

Context

Planinsek, ranked 502, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and has built a 22-10 clay record in 2026.
Planinsek's 73.3% win rate over the last 15 matches on clay is better than Parisca's 60%, and he has also won a higher percentage of sets and games. However, Parisca's recent wins include a victory over a player ranked 476, showing he can compete at a similar level.
- Planinsek last 15 on clay: 11-4 record, 70.6% sets won, 57.8% games won.
- Parisca last 15 on clay: 9-6 record, 52.9% sets won, 51.9% games won.
- Planinsek's 2026 clay record is 22-10; Parisca's is 32-19.
Parisca, ranked 721, has played exclusively on clay this year and has a 32-19 record on the surface.
Parisca retired from a match against Pavel Lagutin on July 23 after losing the first set 6-3 and trailing 1-0 in the second. He has since played six matches without retiring, but the recent retirement suggests he may still be managing a physical issue that could affect him in a long match.
- On 2026-07-23, Parisca retired against Pavel Lagutin at 6-3 1-0 ret.
- Since then, Parisca has played six matches, winning four and losing two.
- No current injury news is available, but the retirement is within the last 30 days.
Planinsek's first serve percentage is lower at 52.8%, but he wins 75.8% of first serve points.
Planinsek's ace count and first serve points won are significantly higher than Parisca's, which could help him hold serve more easily. However, Parisca has a higher first serve percentage and return points won, so he may be able to pressure Planinsek's second serve.
- Planinsek last 15 on clay: 6.4 aces per match, 75.8% first serve points won.
- Parisca last 15 on clay: 1.8 aces per match, 64.7% first serve points won.
- Parisca has a higher first serve in percentage (59.5% vs 52.8%) and return points won (43.9% vs 41.2%).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Filip Jeff Planinsek

1.55fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Planinsek's superior recent clay form and stronger serve metrics give him the edge in this Bo3 match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Planinsek's superior recent clay form and stronger serve metrics give him the edge in this Bo3 match.
- Last 15 on clay: 11-4 record, 70.6% sets won, 57.8% games won
- Career clay record 62-30 vs Parisca 90-70, but Planinsek has higher first-serve points won (75.8% vs 64.7%)
- Planinsek beat higher-ranked opponents recently (Aboian 431, Erhard 339) while Parisca lost to Ritschard 638 and Lagutin 474
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFilip Jeff PlaninsekEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive clay rallies and moderate serving suggest a longer match, though not a strong lean.
- Planinsek average match duration 114 min, Parisca 123 min
- Both players have high break point save rates (Planinsek 70.7%, Parisca 52%)
- Recent matches often went to tiebreaks or three sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slight lean to a longer first set given both players' competitive starts.
- Planinsek first set average games: 9.8, Parisca 9.6
- Both players have similar first-serve percentages (52.8% vs 59.5%)
- Recent first sets often went to 7-6 or 6-4
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Planinsek's strong serving and recent set dominance support taking the opening set.
- Planinsek first-set win conversion career 85%, Parisca 85%
- Planinsek last 15 first-serve points won 75.8%, Parisca 64.7%
- Planinsek won first set in 10 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostFilip Jeff PlaninsekEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Planinsek's ace count alone often exceeds 7.5, making the over plausible.
- Planinsek averages 6.4 aces per match, Parisca 1.8
- Combined average aces per match: 8.2
- Planinsek's serve is a key weapon on clay
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Close sets and similar tiebreak records make a tiebreak likely in this matchup.
- Planinsek tiebreak win pct 46%, Parisca 46%
- Recent matches: Planinsek had 3 tiebreaks in last 15, Parisca had 5
- Both players have similar first-serve points won, leading to close sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault averages slightly exceed the line, though variance is high.
- Planinsek averages 2.5 double faults per match, Parisca 3.5
- Combined average double faults: 6.0
- Both players have moderate second-serve win rates (51.4% vs 48%)
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Filip Jeff Planinsek

11W 4L

6-3 6-4#900Sebastian Dominko

7-6(4) 7-6(6)#431Valerio Aboian

7-6(4) 6-3—Maximilian Figl

6-0 6-3—Matic Hribar

2-6 6-1 6-2—Jonas Gundacker

6-0 6-2#431Valerio Aboian

6-0 6-0—Vid Mohar

6-4 7-6(4)—Marko Retelj

3-6 6-4 7-6(7)#886Iiro Vasa

6-3 7-5#870Manuel Plunger

2-6 7-5 6-3#339Mathys Erhard

6-2 6-4#374Tommaso Compagnucci

6-2 6-2#505Bor Artnak

3-6 6-4 6-3#425Ioannis Xilas

6-2 6-3—Leyton Rivera

Ignacio Parisca

9W 6L

6-7(11) 6-4 6-2#598Amit Vales

6-2 6-2—Unknown Player

7-6(2) 6-4#462Sergi Perez Contri

6-1 7-6(1)#638Alexander Ritschard

7-6(3) 6-4#476Ivan Gakhov

4-6 6-0 6-2—Xavi Palomar

6-1 6-3#474Pavel Lagutin

4-6 6-4 7-6(5)—Luka Talan Lopatic

6-1 6-1—Jordi Garcia Mestre

6-3 1-0 ret.#474Pavel Lagutin

6-2 7-6(9)#462Sergi Perez Contri

6-4 6-1#666Pablo Martinez Gomez

6-4 6-3#676Pedro Rodenas

6-4 6-7(3) 7-6(1)—Sergi Fita Juan

6-3 6-2#746Carles Hernandez

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FPFilip Jeff PlaninsekPlaninsek

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Ignacio PariscaPariscaIP

Filip Jeff Planinsek carries the stronger recent form — Ignacio Parisca's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In52.8%+6.7pp59.5%

1st Serve Won75.8%+11.1pp64.7%

2nd Serve Won51.4%+3.4pp48.0%

Aces / Match6.4+4.61.8

Double Faults / Match2.51.0 fewer3.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.2%+2.7pp43.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted49.5%—49.1%

Break Pts Saved70.7%+18.7pp52.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.9%+2.2pp50.7%

Serve · 4–1

52.8%1st Serve In+6.7pp59.5%

75.8%1st Serve Won+11.1pp64.7%

51.4%2nd Serve Won+3.4pp48.0%

6.4Aces / Match+4.61.8

2.5Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer3.5

Return · 0–1

41.2%Return Pts Won+2.7pp43.9%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

49.5%Break Pts Converted—49.1%

70.7%Break Pts Saved+18.7pp52.0%

Points · 1–0

52.9%Total Pts Won+2.2pp50.7%