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Predictions graded

Filip Misolic #530Austria0Francisco Cerundolo #23Argentina3

Sets 4-6 · 3-6 · 5-7Tue 1 Sept 2026, 18:47 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–363%

Edges5–271%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFrancisco Cerundolo · 507 places

Filip Misolic

Austria

Reached a career-high No. 76 in February 2026. A right-foot plantar-fascia rupture interrupted his 2026 season; in mid-June he was still building toward a return.

Current ranking: #530
Peak ranking: #76 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Francisco Cerundolo

Argentina

Career-high No. 18 on 2025-05-05. ATP lists clay as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #23
Peak ranking: #18 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Aug 2026, 05:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Cerundolo is a heavy favorite over Misolic due to ranking and H2H dominance, but his poor hard-court form and Misolic's competitiveness in sets make the odds unattractive.

Most markets show negative edges, so there is little value in betting on this match.

Context

Cerundolo, 25, is ranked No. 25 and has a career 64.5% win rate, but his recent hard-court results have dipped sharply.
In his last four hard-court matches, Cerundolo has lost to Nuno Borges, Alex Michelsen, and Arthur Gea, with the only win coming via retirement. His hard-court record in the last 15 matches is 1-3, and his return points won on hard courts is just 32.5%, well below his overall 38.6%. This suggests he is vulnerable on this surface, especially against a player who can extend rallies.
- Cerundolo's last 15 hard-court record: 1 win, 3 losses (25% win rate).
- Recent hard-court losses: Nuno Borges (6-4 6-4), Alex Michelsen (6-3 6-4), Arthur Gea (6-7 6-4 6-0).
- Hard-court return points won: 32.5% vs overall 38.6%.
Misolic, 24, is ranked No. 530 and has struggled on hard courts, with a 1-4 record on the surface in 2026.
Misolic retired at 6-1 1-1 against Martin Landaluce on February 17, 2026. He has not played a competitive match since then, a gap of over six months. While he may have recovered, the lack of recent match play and the retirement itself create uncertainty about his physical readiness for a best-of-five Grand Slam match.
- Misolic retired at 6-1 1-1 vs Martin Landaluce on 2026-02-17.
- No matches recorded since that retirement.
- 2026 hard-court record: 1 win, 4 losses.
Cerundolo has a clear edge in their limited history, winning both matches without dropping a set.
Cerundolo won 6-2 7-6(2) 6-0 at the 2024 French Open and 6-3 6-3 on indoor hard in 2022. In those matches, Cerundolo won 71% of break points and 83% of first-serve points, while Misolic won only 27% of return points. This pattern suggests Cerundolo's baseline game can overwhelm Misolic, though the sample is small and from different surfaces.
- 2024 French Open: Cerundolo won 6-2 7-6(2) 6-0.
- 2022 indoor hard: Cerundolo won 6-3 6-3.
- H2H stats: Cerundolo won 71% of break points, Misolic won 27% of return points.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Francisco Cerundolo

1.05fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 95.2%

0.0ppshort

Cerundolo's ranking and H2H dominance make him a strong favorite, but the odds are heavily skewed and offer no value.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Francisco Cerundolo

1.20fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Cerundolo's superior overall level and strong first-set conversion rate give him a clear edge in the opening set.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Francisco Cerundolo

1.20fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Cerundolo's better set win rate and Misolic's tendency to lose second sets make Cerundolo the likely winner of set 2.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 3.5

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Cerundolo's straight-set H2H wins and Misolic's frequent straight-set losses point to a three-set match, but the odds already reflect that.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Francisco Cerundolo 3-0

1.62fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Cerundolo's straight-set H2H dominance and Misolic's poor form support a 3-0 win, but the odds are far too short given Cerundolo's recent hard-court issues.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.05
The read
Cerundolo's massive ranking edge, dominant H2H, and Misolic's poor recent form make him a strong favorite despite his own hard-court struggles.
- Cerundolo is ranked #25 vs Misolic #530.
- H2H: Cerundolo leads 2-0, including a 6-2 7-6(2) 6-0 win on clay in 2024.
- Misolic last 15 overall record: 4-11 (26.7%), with 1-4 on hard courts.
- Cerundolo last 15 overall record: 8-7 (53.3%), though only 1-3 on hard in that window.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFrancisco CerundoloEstimated chance82%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cerundolo's dominance in H2H and Misolic's weak form suggest a relatively quick match, likely under 35.5 games.
- Misolic's last 15 matches average 23.3 games per match.
- Cerundolo's last 15 matches average 28.7 games per match.
- H2H matches averaged 17.5 games per match.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 35.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cerundolo's superior game win percentage and H2H dominance suggest he can cover a -5.5 game handicap.
- Cerundolo won H2H matches by 7 and 6 games respectively.
- Misolic's last 15 matches show a negative game differential.
- Cerundolo's overall game win percentage is 50% vs Misolic's 43.7%.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostFrancisco Cerundolo -5.5Estimated chance58%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Cerundolo's superior overall level and strong first-set conversion rate give him a clear edge in the opening set.
- Cerundolo career first-set win conversion: 87%.
- Misolic first-set win conversion: 90%, but he has lost 11 of last 15 matches.
- Cerundolo has won the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFrancisco CerundoloEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Cerundolo's better set win rate and Misolic's tendency to lose second sets make Cerundolo the likely winner of set 2.
- Cerundolo has won the second set in 3 of his last 5 matches.
- Misolic has lost the second set in 7 of his last 10 matches.
- Cerundolo's overall set win percentage is 47.7% vs Misolic's 31.4%.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonFrancisco CerundoloEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Cerundolo's straight-set H2H wins and Misolic's frequent straight-set losses point to a three-set match.
- Cerundolo won both H2H matches in straight sets.
- Misolic has lost 8 of his last 15 matches in straight sets.
- Cerundolo has won 5 of his last 15 matches in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 3.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In a best-of-five match, both players' ace rates suggest a reasonable chance of exceeding 15.5 total aces.
- Cerundolo averages 4.7 aces per match in last 15.
- Misolic averages 3.8 aces per match in last 15.
- Combined average is 8.5 aces per match, but Bo5 format can increase total.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 15.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 3 double faults per match, making over 6.5 likely in a longer Bo5 format.
- Cerundolo averages 3.5 double faults per match in last 15.
- Misolic averages 3.0 double faults per match in last 15.
- Combined average is 6.5 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given both players' tiebreak tendencies and the competitive nature of some sets, a tiebreak is plausible.
- Misolic has a 61% career tiebreak win rate.
- Cerundolo has a 54% career tiebreak win rate.
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Cerundolo's recent hard-court form and Misolic's competitive sets make covering -8.5 games unlikely.

Head-to-Head

0-2 (2 meetings)

L6-2 7-6(2) 6-0Filip Misolic#530vFrancisco Cerundolo#25May 30, 2024

L6-3 6-3Filip Misolic#530vFrancisco Cerundolo#25Oct 24, 2022

2 total meetings

Filip Misolic

4W 11L

6-1 1-1 ret.#65Martin Landaluce

7-6(5) 7-6(4)#201Lorenzo Giustino

6-2 6-3 6-3#27Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

7-5 6-3#97Alexander Shevchenko

7-5 6-4—Daniel Jovanovski

6-3 6-3#85Rinky Hijikata

6-1 6-3#6Flavio Cobolli

6-3 6-7(3) 6-1#84Alex Molcan

1-6 7-6(4) 6-4#220Chun Hsin Tseng

6-4 6-4#7Alex De Minaur

7-5 7-6(6)#76Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6-2 6-2#72Kamil Majchrzak

6-3 3-6 7-6(4)#443Viktor Durasovic

6-7(4) 6-4 6-4#879William Rejchtman Vinciguerra

3-6 6-3 6-4#423Henry Bernet

Francisco Cerundolo

8W 7L

6-4 6-4#41Nuno Borges

6-3 6-4#45Alex Michelsen

6-7(11) 6-4 6-0#86Arthur Gea

6-7(4) 4-3 ret.#182Tristan Boyer

6-1 6-4 6-3#55Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

6-7(4) 6-4 6-3#21Tommy Paul

6-7(5) 6-3 6-4#17Brandon Nakashima

7-6(1) 3-6 6-4#37Arthur Fery

6-0 6-4#73Jenson Brooksby

6-4 6-7(5) 6-2#89Aleksandar Kovacevic

6-3 6-4 3-6 4-6 6-3#80Zachary Svajda

2-6 6-4 6-2 6-1#88Hugo Gaston

6-3 6-4 6-7(7) 6-4#71Botic Van De Zandschulp

3-6 6-4 6-3#7Alex De Minaur

7-6(7) 6-4#14Lorenzo Musetti

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FMFilip MisolicMisolic

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Francisco CerundoloCerundoloFC

Francisco Cerundolo carries the stronger recent form — Filip Misolic's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1562.6%+2.9pp59.7%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1567.2%—67.4%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1546.7%+3.2pp49.9%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/153.8+0.94.7

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.00.5 fewer3.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1535.1%+3.5pp38.6%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1526.1%+9.1pp35.2%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1557.8%—57.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1547.5%+1.8pp49.3%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

62.6%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+2.9pp59.7%

67.2%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15—67.4%

46.7%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+3.2pp49.9%

3.8Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+0.94.7

3.0Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.5 fewer3.5

Return · 0–1

35.1%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.5pp38.6%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

26.1%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+9.1pp35.2%

57.8%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15—57.6%

Points · 0–1

47.5%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.8pp49.3%

Filip Misolic #530Austria0Francisco Cerundolo #23Argentina3

Player Profiles

Filip Misolic

Francisco Cerundolo

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 31.5

Francisco Cerundolo

Francisco Cerundolo

Francisco Cerundolo

Under 3.5

Francisco Cerundolo -7.5

Francisco Cerundolo 3-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 2 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Cerundolo, F 3-0 @ 1.62

Head-to-Head

Filip Misolic

Francisco Cerundolo

Stat Battle