Plovdiv - BulgariaFinished

Predictions graded

Alexander Vasilev #6180Juan Manuel La Serna #288Argentina2

Sets 1-6 · 2-6Tue 1 Sept 2026, 12:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions3–443%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJuan Manuel La Serna · 330 places

Alexander Vasilev

Vasilev, 19, is the left-hander in this matchup. His recorded career-best singles ranking is No. 564 in July 2026, and clay is listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #618
Peak ranking: #564 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Juan Manuel La Serna

Argentina

Argentine left-hander, born 5 February 2004. Public player data records a career-best No. 282 in May 2026; no reliable preferred-surface designation was verified.

Current ranking: #288
Peak ranking: #282 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Aug 2026, 03:35 · Europe/Bucharest

La Serna's higher ranking and clay record make him the favorite, but Vasilev's recent form and serve stats keep it close.

Best value lies in over 7.5 double faults and over 21.5 total games, while the match winner market is fairly priced.

Context

La Serna, ranked 283, is a clay-court specialist with 137 career wins on the surface. Vasilev, ranked 618, has 29 clay wins and is also left-handed.
La Serna's career clay win percentage is higher and his recent clay stats show better second-serve points won (50.4% vs 42.3%) and fewer double faults per match (2.6 vs 5.7). However, both players have won 60% of their last 15 matches, so Vasilev's recent form is not far behind. This suggests La Serna has a slight edge, but the match could be competitive.
- La Serna career clay wins: 137, Vasilev: 29.
- La Serna last 15 clay second-serve points won: 50.4%, Vasilev: 42.3%.
- La Serna last 15 clay double faults per match: 2.6, Vasilev: 5.7.
- Both players have a 60% win rate in their last 15 matches.
Vasilev, 618 in the rankings, has played mostly on clay this season with a 17-10 record in 2026.
His last 13 clay matches show an 8-5 record, and he has won three of his last five. However, his most recent match was a heavy 6-1 6-1 loss to Marat Sharipov, which may indicate a dip in form. La Serna's recent clay form is similar, so this could be a close contest.
- Vasilev last 13 clay matches: 8 wins, 5 losses.
- Vasilev last 5 matches: 3 wins, 2 losses.
- Most recent match: lost 6-1 6-1 to Marat Sharipov (ranked 438).
- La Serna last 15 clay matches: 9 wins, 6 losses.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Juan Manuel La Serna

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

La Serna's higher ranking and stronger career clay record give him a slight edge, but the odds are close to fair value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
La Serna's higher ranking, stronger clay pedigree, and comparable recent form give him a clear edge.
- La Serna ranking 283 vs Vasilev 618
- La Serna career clay win% 60.1, Vasilev 55.2
- La Serna last15 clay record 9-6, Vasilev 8-5
- La Serna 2026 clay record 33-18, Vasilev 17-10
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJuan Manuel La SernaEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players show competitive matches with several three-setters, suggesting a total above 21.5 games.
- Vasilev last15 average 19.9 games per match
- La Serna last15 average 21.3 games per match
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets have often been tight, supporting over 9.5 games in set 1.
- Vasilev last15 first set average 9.3 games
- La Serna last15 first set average 9.7 games
- Both players have close first sets in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
La Serna's overall edge should translate into a multi-game margin, though Vasilev's competitiveness keeps confidence low.
- La Serna last15 games won 52.2% vs Vasilev 52.3%
- La Serna higher ranking and stronger clay record
- Vasilev's recent losses include lopsided scores
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonJuan Manuel La Serna -2.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
La Serna's overall edge and strong first-set conversion rate make him a slight favorite in set 1.
- La Serna first set win conversion 85% career
- Vasilev first set win conversion 87% career
- La Serna last15 first serve points won 64.6% vs Vasilev 70.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJuan Manuel La SernaEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Vasilev's high double fault rate drives the combined average above 7.5.
- Vasilev last15 double faults per match 5.7
- La Serna last15 double faults per match 2.6
- Combined average 8.3 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates are near the line, and a three-set match could push the total over 5.5.
- Vasilev last15 aces per match 3.1
- La Serna last15 aces per match 1.6
- Combined average 4.7 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Alexander Vasilev

9W 6L

6-1 6-1#438Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-1 ret.—George Lazarov

5-7 6-3 7-6(3)—Mihailo Savic

6-3 6-4#728Emilien Demanet

6-3 3-6 6-1#549Digvijaypratap Singh

6-4 6-2#455Luca Castelnuovo

6-4 6-2#336Eliakim Coulibaly

1-6 6-1 6-1#594Kai Wehnelt

6-1 7-5#292Sandro Kopp

7-5 6-1#426Niels Visker

7-6(5) 7-5#187Andrea Guerrieri

6-4 6-2#510Miguel Tobon

6-2 4-6 6-2#835Denys Klok

6-4 6-2—Simeon Stankovic

6-4 6-1#626Stefan Popovic

Juan Manuel La Serna

9W 6L

1-6 7-5 6-2#271Hynek Barton

6-2 3-6 7-5#419Benjamin Hassan

6-3 6-7(1) 6-4#365Tommaso Compagnucci

6-3 1-1 ret.#442Luca Staeheli

6-3 6-3#345Facundo Mena

6-2 6-3#632Ignacio Monzon

6-3 4-6 6-1#465Juan Alejandro Hernandez

6-3 6-3#198Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-2 2-0 ret.#279Nick Hardt

6-2 1-0 ret.#430Santiago Rodriguez Taverna

6-4 6-7(1) 6-4#900Enzo Kohlmann De Freitas

6-4 7-5#627Conner Huertas Del Pino

6-3 7-6(5)#364Eduardo Ribeiro

6-3 6-4#632Ignacio Monzon

3-6 6-0 7-5#827Johan Alexander Rodriguez

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AVAlexander VasilevVasilev

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Juan Manuel La SernaSernaJS

Juan Manuel La Serna carries the stronger recent form — Alexander Vasilev's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1562.9%+1.5pp64.4%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1570.6%+6.0pp64.6%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1542.1%+8.3pp50.4%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/153.1+1.51.6

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/155.73.1 fewer2.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1542.6%—42.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1541.2%+9.3pp50.5%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1564.2%+9.7pp54.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1551.1%—51.0%

Serve · 2–3

62.9%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+1.5pp64.4%

70.6%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+6.0pp64.6%

42.1%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+8.3pp50.4%

3.1Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.51.6

5.7Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.1 fewer2.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

42.6%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—42.3%

Pressure · 1–1

41.2%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+9.3pp50.5%

64.2%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+9.7pp54.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.1%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—51.0%