PortugalPorto - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Zdenek Kolar #156Czechia0Oriol Roca Batalla #342Spain2

Sets 1-6 · 1-6Mon 31 Aug 2026, 13:35 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions2–529%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageZdenek Kolar · 186 places

Zdenek Kolar

Czechia

Czech right-hander, age 29, with a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 111 on 13 June 2022. His recent official ITF activity shows substantially more clay than hard-court matches in 2026.

Current ranking: #156
Peak ranking: #111 · 2022
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Oriol Roca Batalla

Spain

Spanish clay-court specialist with a career-high singles ranking of No. 150 in August 2024. His 2026 recorded match volume has been entirely on clay.

Current ranking: #342
Peak ranking: #150 · 2024
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Aug 2026, 15:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Oriol Roca Batalla is favored over Zdenek Kolar based on superior recent form and serve efficiency, despite Kolar's narrow H2H win.

Roca Batalla offers value in the match winner and first set markets, while total games lean over 21.5 with low confidence.

Context

Kolar, 29, is a clay-court specialist with a career win rate of 56% and a ranking of 175.
His recent clay form is concerning: he has won only 4 of 13 matches on the surface in the last 15, with a 30.8% win rate. His first serve points won (62.1%) and return points won (40.2%) are both below his career norms, suggesting he is struggling to impose his game. This could give Roca Batalla, who has a stronger recent clay record, an edge.
- Kolar's last 15 clay matches: 4 wins, 9 losses (30.8% win rate).
- His last five matches on clay were all losses.
- First serve points won: 62.1% (career 67%); return points won: 40.2% (career 41%).
Roca Batalla, 33, is a clay-court veteran with a career win rate of 62% and a ranking of 344.
His recent clay form is solid: 7 wins in 15 matches (46.7% win rate), and he wins 74.1% of first-serve points, well above Kolar's 62.1%. This serve advantage could be decisive on clay, where holding serve is crucial. However, his lower first-serve percentage (57.7%) may limit his ability to dominate.
- Roca Batalla's last 15 clay matches: 7 wins, 8 losses (46.7% win rate).
- First serve points won: 74.1% vs Kolar's 62.1%.
- First serve in: 57.7% (below Kolar's 63.6%).
The two players met once before, on clay in March 2026.
Kolar won 6-4, 7-5, but that was before his current poor run. Since then, Kolar has lost 9 of 13 clay matches, while Roca Batalla has been more consistent. The head-to-head result may not reflect current form, but it shows Kolar can match up well against Roca Batalla.
- H2H: Kolar leads 1-0, winning 6-4, 7-5 on clay in March 2026.
- Kolar's recent clay win rate: 30.8%; Roca Batalla's: 46.7%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Roca Batalla's stronger recent form and serve efficiency outweigh Kolar's narrow H2H win, making him the likely winner.
- Last 15 overall record: Roca Batalla 46.7% vs Kolar 26.7%
- Last 15 clay record: Roca Batalla 46.7% vs Kolar 30.8%
- Roca Batalla first serve points won 74.1% vs Kolar 61.4%
- H2H: Kolar won their only meeting 6-4 7-5 in March 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOriol Roca BatallaEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive baseline games and long average match durations suggest a match exceeding 21.5 games.
- Kolar average match duration 96.6 min, Roca Batalla 108.1 min
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 50%
- H2H match had 22 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players tend to play close first sets, supporting over 9.5 games.
- Kolar first set average games 9.7 in last 15
- Roca Batalla first set average games 10.1 in last 15
- H2H first set had 10 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been similarly competitive, making over 9.5 games plausible.
- Kolar second set average games 9.3 in last 15
- Roca Batalla second set average games 9.8 in last 15
- H2H second set had 12 games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Roca Batalla's strong serve and recent momentum give him an edge in the opening set.
- Roca Batalla first serve points won 74.1% in last 15
- Kolar first set win conversion 87% career, but recent form poor
- Roca Batalla has won first set in 5 of last 7 wins
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonOriol Roca BatallaEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault averages sit right at the line, with Kolar's high rate pushing it over.
- Kolar averages 3.7 double faults per match in last 15
- Roca Batalla averages 1.9 double faults per match in last 15
- Combined average 5.6 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Oriol Roca Batalla has been unreliable when projected to win

Oriol Roca Batalla has fulfilled 2 of 5 recent win projections. The average estimated probability was 70.2%, but only 40% of those predictions matched. All three missed predictions ended in losses, with no draws or wins for the subject.

Recent evidence for Oriol Roca Batalla5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jun·Milan - Italy

#319Oriol Roca Batalla1-2#839Pierluigi Basile

BetBugsOriol Roca Batalla to win·78%

Missed

30 Jun 2026

Milan - Italy

#319Oriol Roca Batalla1-2#839Pierluigi Basile

Oriol Roca Batalla to win

78%probability

Pierluigi Basile won

Missed

29 Jun·Milan - Italy

#316Oriol Roca Batalla2-0#380Daniel Masur

BetBugsOriol Roca Batalla to win·72%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

Milan - Italy

#316Oriol Roca Batalla2-0#380Daniel Masur

Oriol Roca Batalla to win

72%probability

Oriol Roca Batalla won

Matched

23 Jun·Targu Mures - Romania

#316Oriol Roca Batalla0-2#190Francesco Passaro

BetBugsOriol Roca Batalla to win·65%

Missed

23 Jun 2026

Targu Mures - Romania

#316Oriol Roca Batalla0-2#190Francesco Passaro

Oriol Roca Batalla to win

65%probability

Francesco Passaro won

Missed

17 Jun·Parma - Italy

#234Chun Hsin Tseng2-0#320Oriol Roca Batalla

BetBugsOriol Roca Batalla to win·58%

Missed

17 Jun 2026

Parma - Italy

#234Chun Hsin Tseng2-0#320Oriol Roca Batalla

Oriol Roca Batalla to win

58%probability

Chun Hsin Tseng won

Missed

1 Jun·Perugia - Italy

#377Oriol Roca Batalla2-1#502Pietro Orlando Fellin

BetBugsOriol Roca Batalla to win·78%

Matched

1 Jun 2026

Perugia - Italy

#377Oriol Roca Batalla2-1#502Pietro Orlando Fellin

Oriol Roca Batalla to win

78%probability

Oriol Roca Batalla won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-4 7-5Zdenek Kolar#175vOriol Roca Batalla#344Mar 9, 2026

1 total meetings

Zdenek Kolar

4W 11L

6-1 6-4#162Borna Gojo

6-4 6-4#223Raul Brancaccio

6-2 4-6 6-3#186Jan Kumstat

6-3 6-2#198Thiago Seyboth Wild

4-6 6-3 6-4#51Juan Manuel Cerundolo

6-4 6-3#160Taro Daniel

7-5 6-0#405Stefan Palosi

6-3 6-3#145Tom Gentzsch

4-6 6-4 6-3#181Federico Cina

6-4 6-4#610Lukas Pokorny

6-3 6-1#899Jason Jung

7-5 6-1#189Lautaro Midon

6-4 7-6(4)#234Sumit Nagal

6-4 6-3#790Ilya Snitari

7-5 2-6 6-1#94Chak Lam Coleman Wong

Oriol Roca Batalla

7W 8L

6-7(4) 7-5 7-5#308Radu Mihai Papoe

6-4 6-1#207Francesco Passaro

6-2 6-4#646Nikita Mashtakov

6-4 6-4#858Yanaki Milev

7-6(6) 6-3#900Niklas Guttau

6-4 6-0—Oliwier Sterniczuk

6-4 6-4#187Andrea Guerrieri

6-7(4) 6-3 6-1#622Pierluigi Basile

6-1 6-2#392Daniel Masur

6-3 3-6 7-5—Samuele Seghetti

7-6(2) 6-4#207Francesco Passaro

6-3 6-4#579Sebastian Gima

6-1 6-3#880Mihai Razvan Marinescu

6-2 7-6(1)#220Chun Hsin Tseng

6-4 6-0#207Francesco Passaro

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ZKZdenek KolarKolar

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Oriol Roca BatallaBatallaOB

Oriol Roca Batalla carries the stronger recent form — Zdenek Kolar's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In63.3%+5.6pp57.7%

1st Serve Won61.4%+12.7pp74.1%

2nd Serve Won49.9%+1.8pp48.1%

Aces / Match1.8+1.73.5

Double Faults / Match3.71.8 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.9%+1.2pp40.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted39.4%+1.5pp37.9%

Break Pts Saved51.0%+4.1pp55.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won47.8%+3.3pp51.1%

Serve · 2–3

63.3%1st Serve In+5.6pp57.7%

61.4%1st Serve Won+12.7pp74.1%

49.9%2nd Serve Won+1.8pp48.1%

1.8Aces / Match+1.73.5

3.7Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

38.9%Return Pts Won+1.2pp40.1%

Pressure · 1–1

39.4%Break Pts Converted+1.5pp37.9%

51.0%Break Pts Saved+4.1pp55.1%

Points · 0–1

47.8%Total Pts Won+3.3pp51.1%