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Predictions graded

Tamara Zidansek #1510Maria Timofeeva #92Uzbekistan2

Sets 3-6 · 5-7Mon 31 Aug 2026, 17:02 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions0–60%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaria Timofeeva · 59 places

Tamara Zidansek

WTA ranking history records a career-best No. 22 in 2022. The supplied structured profile lists her at No. 151; no reliable source in this search established a preferred surface or a current active fitness concern.

Current ranking: #151
Peak ranking: #22 · 2022
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Maria Timofeeva

Uzbekistan

The ITF lists hard and carpet as her preferred surfaces. She reached a career-high No. 79 in July 2026.

Current ranking: #92
Peak ranking: #79 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard, Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 167 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Aug 2026, 06:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Zidansek's perfect recent hard-court record and Timofeeva's back withdrawal give the Slovenian a slight edge, with a 55% win probability and a 24.2-point betting edge at odds of 3.25.

The total games market leans Over 21.5, and the first set is expected to be competitive, but Over 2.5 sets is avoided due to strong first-set win conversion rates.

Context

Zidansek, ranked 146, has a career clay-heavy profile but is currently on a three-match hard-court winning streak at this US Open qualifying event.
Timofeeva, ranked 92, has a 4-3 hard-court record in her last seven matches, including a retirement loss to Xiyu Wang. Zidansek's recent hard-court wins came against opponents ranked 116, 209, and 183, showing she can handle lower-ranked players on this surface. However, Timofeeva's overall last-15 record is stronger at 10-5 compared to Zidansek's 8-7, so the matchup is not one-sided.
- Zidansek's last three hard-court matches: W vs Andreescu (183), W vs Zuleta De Reales (209), W vs Samson (116).
- Timofeeva's last seven hard-court matches: 4 wins, 3 losses, including a retirement vs Wang (82).
- Zidansek's overall last-15 record: 8-7; Timofeeva's: 10-5.
Timofeeva, 22, is ranked No. 92 and entered the US Open main draw despite withdrawing from Monterrey on Aug. 26 with a back issue.
The withdrawal came four days before this match, so her back remains a question. She stayed in the draw, but any lingering discomfort could affect her movement and serve against Zidansek.
- A back-related Monterrey withdrawal was recorded on Aug. 26.
- The US Open main-draw placement lists Timofeeva against Zidansek.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
- A tracked match on 2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z against Xiyu Wang ended by retirement; the stored result was L.
ReportedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 06:33 · Europe/BucharestMaria Timofeeva Tennis Stats & Newswww.rotowire.com · 26 Aug 2026Zheng, Liutova qualify for US Open; Zidansek stops Andreescuwww.wtatennis.com · 28 Aug 2026
Timofeeva, 22, is a right-hander from Uzbekistan who reached a career-high ranking of 92 and has a 63% career win rate.
The retirement came in the second set after losing the first 0-6, indicating a possible physical issue. However, she returned to competition on August 23 and won three consecutive matches, including a three-setter, which suggests the issue may not be severe. This creates uncertainty about her current fitness level, but her recent activity is a positive sign.
- On 2026-08-14, Timofeeva retired vs Xiyu Wang at 0-6 0-3 ret.
- She returned on 2026-08-23 and won three matches in a row, including a 7-6(5) 2-6 7-6(4) win over Tararudee.
- No current injury news found in intel.
Zidansek's career first-serve percentage is 66%, but in her last three hard-court matches it has dropped to 61.9%.
On hard courts in her last three matches, Zidansek has won only 43.6% of return points and 59.6% of second-serve points. Timofeeva's hard-court return points won is 45.1%, slightly better. If Zidansek's serve is not at its best, Timofeeva could get more break opportunities, but Zidansek's ability to win close matches may compensate.
- Zidansek hard-court last-3: first serve in 61.9%, return points won 43.6%, second serve points won 59.6%.
- Timofeeva hard-court last-7: return points won 45.1%, first serve points won 60.9%.
- Zidansek's overall last-15 first serve in is 59.3%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.25
The read
Zidansek's perfect recent hard-court record and Timofeeva's recent back withdrawal give the home player a slight edge.
- Zidansek is 3-0 on hard courts in her last 15 matches, winning 55.4% of games.
- Timofeeva is 4-3 on hard courts in her last 15 matches, winning only 44.2% of games.
- Zidansek has won her last three matches, all on hard courts, including a qualifying win over Bianca Andreescu.
- Timofeeva withdrew from Monterrey with a back issue on Aug. 26, four days before this match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTamara ZidansekEstimated chance55%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in competitive matches, and Zidansek's recent hard-court matches have consistently exceeded 21.5 games.
- Zidansek's last three hard-court matches averaged 22.7 games.
- Timofeeva's last three hard-court matches averaged 20.7 games.
- Both players have a high percentage of three-set matches in recent form.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players have been competitive, often extending beyond 9.5 games.
- Zidansek's last three hard-court first sets: 2-6, 7-5, 6-7(5) - all over 9.5 games.
- Timofeeva's last three hard-court first sets: 6-1, 3-6, 7-6(5) - two over 9.5 games.
- Both players have similar first-serve percentages around 60%.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zidansek's stronger recent hard-court serving and Timofeeva's slow starts support a narrow first-set edge.
- Zidansek has won the first set in 2 of her last 3 hard-court matches.
- Timofeeva lost the first set in 2 of her last 3 hard-court matches.
- Zidansek's first-serve points won on hard courts is 64.7% vs Timofeeva's 60.9%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostTamara ZidansekEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages of both players on hard courts suggest a close call, but Over 3.5 is slightly favored.
- Zidansek averages 2.0 aces per match on hard courts in her last 15 matches.
- Timofeeva averages 1.9 aces per match on hard courts in her last 15 matches.
- Combined average aces per match is 3.9, slightly above the 3.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Timofeeva's high double-fault rate on hard courts pushes the combined total above 6.5.
- Zidansek averages 2.7 double faults per match on hard courts.
- Timofeeva averages 4.4 double faults per match on hard courts.
- Combined average double faults per match is 7.1, above the 6.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Tamara Zidansek has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Tamara Zidansek has fulfilled 2 of 4 recent win predictions. Her average estimated probability was 65.3%, with an expected 2.6 fulfilled predictions. Both missed predictions occurred when she was the away player, while both fulfilled predictions came at home.

Recent evidence for Tamara Zidansek4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

14 Jul·WTA Iasi

#96Emiliana Arango1-2#148Tamara Zidansek

BetBugsTamara Zidansek to win·62%

Matched

14 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#96Emiliana Arango1-2#148Tamara Zidansek

Tamara Zidansek to win

62%probability

Tamara Zidansek won

Matched

11 Jun·WTA Modena

#134Tamara Zidansek0-2#177Nuria Brancaccio

BetBugsTamara Zidansek to win·72%

Missed

11 Jun 2026

WTA Modena

#134Tamara Zidansek0-2#177Nuria Brancaccio

Tamara Zidansek to win

72%probability

Nuria Brancaccio won

Missed

9 Jun·WTA Modena

#134Tamara Zidansek2-0#356Federica Urgesi

BetBugsTamara Zidansek to win·65%

Matched

9 Jun 2026

WTA Modena

#134Tamara Zidansek2-0#356Federica Urgesi

Tamara Zidansek to win

65%probability

Tamara Zidansek won

Matched

20 May·WTA Roland Garros

#213Anna-Lena Friedsam2-0#134Tamara Zidansek

BetBugsTamara Zidansek to win·62%

Missed

20 May 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#213Anna-Lena Friedsam2-0#134Tamara Zidansek

Tamara Zidansek to win

62%probability

Anna-Lena Friedsam won

Missed

Previous match context available

Tamara Zidansek

8W 7L

2-6 6-3 6-4#183Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

7-5 6-3#209Guiomar Zuleta De Reales

6-7(5) 6-4 7-5#116Laura Samson

3-6 6-4 6-3#218Alevtina Ibragimova

3-6 7-5 7-6(1)#83Paula Badosa Gibert

6-3 7-5#73Petra Marcinko

7-6(5) 6-7(5) 7-5#70Anna Bondar

5-7 6-2 6-3#84Emiliana Arango

6-3 6-0#171Teodora Kostovic

7-5 6-3#365Nastasja Mariana Schunk

6-2 7-5#249Zhuoxuan Bai

6-2 6-2#189Nuria Brancaccio

7-5 6-0#275Federica Urgesi

7-5 4-6 6-3#159Elina Avanesyan

6-3 6-4#250Anna-Lena Friedsam

Maria Timofeeva

10W 5L

6-1 6-3#53Shuai Zhang

3-6 6-3 7-6(1)#88Kamilla Rakhimova

7-6(5) 2-6 7-6(4)#72Lanlana Tararudee

6-0 3-0 ret.#82Xiyu Wang

6-1 6-1#29Sara Bejlek

6-3 6-4#136Aliaksandra Sasnovich

6-2 6-1#30Ann Li

2-6 6-3 6-0#24Elise Mertens

6-3 6-2#154Beatriz Haddad Maia

3-6 6-2 6-1#445Heather Watson

6-4 6-2#132Veronika Podrez

6-1 6-4#231Whitney Osuigwe

7-5 6-2#71Renata Zarazua

6-2 6-3#109Darja Semenistaja

6-2 7-5#202Sara Sorribes Tormo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TZTamara ZidansekZidansek

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Maria TimofeevaTimofeevaMT

Maria Timofeeva carries the stronger recent form — Tamara Zidansek's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In59.3%+3.2pp62.5%

1st Serve Won59.3%+2.5pp61.8%

2nd Serve Won49.8%+5.2pp44.6%

Aces / Match1.6—1.6

Double Faults / Match4.00.6 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won44.5%+3.0pp47.5%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted45.7%+5.1pp40.6%

Break Pts Saved54.1%—54.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.9%+1.4pp51.3%

Shot making · 2–1Limited data · 5 vs 5

Winners / Match5/15 · 5/1521.0+3.617.4

Unforced Errors / Match5/15 · 5/1528.02.2 fewer25.8

Net Pts Won5/15 · 5/1578.3%+4.7pp73.6%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

59.3%1st Serve In+3.2pp62.5%

59.3%1st Serve Won+2.5pp61.8%

49.8%2nd Serve Won+5.2pp44.6%

1.6Aces / Match—1.6

4.0Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

44.5%Return Pts Won+3.0pp47.5%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

45.7%Break Pts Converted+5.1pp40.6%

54.1%Break Pts Saved—54.6%

Points · 0–1

49.9%Total Pts Won+1.4pp51.3%

Shot making · 2–1Limited data · 5 vs 5

21.0Winners5/15 · 5/15+3.617.4

28.0Unforced Errors5/15 · 5/152.2 fewer25.8

78.3%Net Pts Won5/15 · 5/15+4.7pp73.6%