ChinaZhangjiagang - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Jie Cui #450China0James Kent Trotter #458Japan2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Mon 31 Aug 2026, 11:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJie Cui · 8 places

Jie Cui

China

China's Cui was born on 24 January 1998. Public profile data identifies a career-best singles ranking of No. 280 in January 2025; no reliable preferred-surface information was found.

Current ranking: #450
Peak ranking: #280 · 2025
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

James Kent Trotter

Japan

Trotter, 27, is right-handed and 183 cm. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 170 on 21 April 2025.

Current ranking: #458
Peak ranking: #170 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Aug 2026, 03:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Cui's return edge gives him a slight advantage, but Trotter's serve keeps it close.

Avoid Cui at 1.60; better value lies in over 21.5 total games and over 8.5 total aces.

Context

Cui, 447th, and Trotter, 458th, are both right-handers with two-handed backhands and similar career win rates around 56%.
Over the last 15 matches, Cui has won 46.7% of matches and 51.3% of total points, while Trotter has won 46.7% and 50.4%. On hard courts, both have 7-7 records in their last 14 matches. This suggests a closely contested match with neither player holding a clear recent-form edge.
- Cui's last 15 overall record: 7-8 (46.7%), total points won 51.3%.
- Trotter's last 15 overall record: 7-8 (46.7%), total points won 50.4%.
- Both have 7-7 hard-court records in their last 14 matches.
Trotter's career first-serve win rate is 76%, and he has hit 1,932 aces in 236 matches.
In the last 15 matches, Trotter averages 5.1 aces per match and wins 71.3% of first-serve points, compared to Cui's 3.3 aces and 67.8%. However, Trotter double-faults 3.3 times per match and saves only 51.3% of break points, while Cui double-faults 2.2 times and saves 60.9%. This could lead to more break opportunities for Cui if Trotter's second serve is attacked.
- Trotter last 15: 5.1 aces/match, 71.3% first-serve points won, 3.3 double faults/match, 51.3% break points saved.
- Cui last 15: 3.3 aces/match, 67.8% first-serve points won, 2.2 double faults/match, 60.9% break points saved.
Cui's career return points won percentage is 40%, while Trotter's is 36%.
In the last 15 matches, Cui has won 41.1% of return points and converted 52.3% of break points, while Trotter has won 37.1% and converted only 35.5%. This return edge could be crucial in a match where both players have similar overall form, potentially giving Cui more chances to break serve.
- Cui last 15: 41.1% return points won, 52.3% break points converted.
- Trotter last 15: 37.1% return points won, 35.5% break points converted.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Jie Cui

1.60fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Cui's superior return and break-point conversion on hard courts gives him a slight edge in a matchup of similar recent records.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Cui's superior return and break-point conversion on hard courts gives him a slight edge in a matchup of similar recent records.
- Jie Cui last 15 on hard: 7-7 record, 53.9% games won, 55.1% break points converted
- James Kent Trotter last 15 on hard: 7-7 record, 50.5% games won, 36.5% break points converted
- Cui return points won 41.4% vs Trotter 37.3% on hard in last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJie CuiEstimated chance52%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches with similar game totals, suggesting a close contest likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Cui last 15 average duration 126.5 minutes, Trotter 110.7 minutes
- Cui last 15 games per match average 22.9, Trotter 22.9
- Both players have 50%+ games won on hard in last 15
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first-set stats suggest a tight opening set with a good chance of exceeding 9.5 games.
- Cui last 15 first set average games 9.7, Trotter 9.5
- Cui first serve points won 67.8%, Trotter 71.3%
- Both players have similar first-set competitiveness
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cui's superior return and break-point stats suggest he can keep the match close or win outright, making +1.5 games a solid handicap.
- Cui last 15 games won 53.2%, Trotter 50%
- Cui return points won 41.1%, Trotter 37.1%
- Cui break points converted 52.3%, Trotter 35.5%
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonJie Cui +1.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Cui's slightly better return game may help him edge the first set, though Trotter's stronger first serve keeps it close.
- Cui first set win conversion career 86%, Trotter 87%
- Cui last 15 first serve points won 67.8%, Trotter 71.3%
- Both players have similar recent hard-court form
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJie CuiEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Trotter's strong ace rate combined with Cui's moderate ace count makes over 8.5 total aces likely.
- Cui last 15 aces per match 3.3, Trotter 5.1
- Combined average aces per match 8.4
- Trotter has 1932 career aces in 236 matches
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Trotter's higher double fault rate pushes the combined total above 5.5 in a typical match.
- Cui last 15 double faults per match 2.2, Trotter 3.3
- Combined average double faults per match 5.5
- Trotter has 700 career double faults in 236 matches
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Cui's recent hard-court form does not justify odds of 1.60, making this a trap for bettors overvaluing his return stats.

Jie Cui

7W 8L

6-2 4-6 7-5#520Aziz Dougaz

6-4 6-2#286Petr Bar Biryukov

6-3 6-4#527Aziz Ouakaa

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-3#758Matthew Forbes

6-3 6-4#790Thomas Fancutt

6-4 7-6(7)#758Matthew Forbes

6-3 7-6(2)#390Trevor Svajda

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#658Dmitry Popko

6-0 6-3—Alejandro Jacome Jaramillo

3-6 6-1 6-4#488Duncan Chan

6-4 1-6 7-6(3)#867Qian Sun

6-1 6-3—Shixun Zhu

6-0 6-1#898Jesse Delaney

6-1 7-5#124Bu Yunchaokete

7-6(3) 7-6(4)#218Rio Noguchi

James Kent Trotter

7W 8L

3-6 6-1 6-3#326Tyler Zink

6-3 6-4#250Hayato Matsuoka

6-7(4) 6-3 6-3—Mikael Arseneault

6-1 6-2#185Clement Chidekh

6-1 6-0#553Kokoro Isomura

6-3 6-4#589Guillaume Dalmasso

1-6 6-3 6-3#217Liam Draxl

0-6 7-6(7) 6-4#900Benjamin Thomas George

6-3 7-5—Jared Horwood

6-7(6) 7-6(6) 6-3#456Quinn Vandecasteele

7-6(7) 6-2#422Ozan Baris

6-1 6-7(14) 6-3#889Ronit Karki

6-4 2-6 7-5—Ilyas Milad Fahim

6-2 6-3#452Karl Poling

7-5 3-0 ret.#411Patrick Zahraj

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JCJie CuiCui

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

James Kent TrotterTrotterJT

Jie Cui carries the stronger recent form — James Kent Trotter's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In63.3%+2.7pp60.6%

1st Serve Won67.8%+3.5pp71.3%

2nd Serve Won50.1%+2.6pp52.7%

Aces / Match3.3+1.85.1

Double Faults / Match2.21.1 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.1%+4.0pp37.1%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted52.3%+16.8pp35.5%

Break Pts Saved60.9%+9.6pp51.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.3%+0.9pp50.4%

Serve · 2–3

63.3%1st Serve In+2.7pp60.6%

67.8%1st Serve Won+3.5pp71.3%

50.1%2nd Serve Won+2.6pp52.7%

3.3Aces / Match+1.85.1

2.2Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

41.1%Return Pts Won+4.0pp37.1%

Pressure · 2–0

52.3%Break Pts Converted+16.8pp35.5%

60.9%Break Pts Saved+9.6pp51.3%

Points · 1–0

51.3%Total Pts Won+0.9pp50.4%