ChinaZhangjiagang - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Hanyi Liu #899China2Kaichi Uchida #270Japan1

Sets 3-6 · 6-3 · 6-2Mon 31 Aug 2026, 07:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–4–143%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKaichi Uchida · 629 places

Hanyi Liu

China

Liu, 25, is the right-hander in this matchup. His recorded career-high ranking is No. 719, reached in April 2024.

Current ranking: #899
Peak ranking: #719 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Kaichi Uchida

Japan

Uchida, 32, is the right-hander in this matchup. His recorded career-high ranking is No. 147, reached in May 2023.

Current ranking: #270
Peak ranking: #147 · 2023
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Aug 2026, 03:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Hanyi Liu is in dominant form with an 11-4 record in his last 15 matches, while Kaichi Uchida has lost 14 of his last 15.

Liu's superior return game and hard-court performance make him a strong favorite, with a 78% win probability. Back Liu to win outright at 2.10 odds for a 30.4-point value edge, and consider under 21.5 total games and under 2.5 sets.

Context

Liu, ranked 899, has been dominant in lower-level events, winning 11 of his last 15 matches with a 73.3% win rate. Uchida, ranked 270, has struggled badly, winning only one of his last 15.
Liu's recent results include wins over players ranked around 600-900, while Uchida's losses have come against opponents ranked 150-400. This suggests Liu is more comfortable at this level and Uchida is out of form, giving Liu a clear edge in current confidence and match rhythm.
- Liu's last15 record: 11-4 (73.3% win rate).
- Uchida's last15 record: 1-14 (6.7% win rate).
- Liu's recent wins include opponents ranked 640, 661, 844, 850, 893, 896, 1581.
- Uchida's recent losses include opponents ranked 150, 179, 183, 197, 237, 242, 288, 316, 318, 386, 395, 456, 545, 857.
Uchida's return points won percentage is 31.5% over his last 15 matches, well below the tour average of around 39%. His break point conversion is also low at 31.9%.
Liu's return points won is 48.8% in the same span, showing a significant advantage in return effectiveness. If Uchida cannot improve his return, Liu should hold serve comfortably and create more break opportunities.
- Uchida's return points won: 31.5% (277/880) in last 15 matches.
- Liu's return points won: 48.8% (430/882) in last 15 matches.
- Uchida's break points converted: 31.9% (15/47) in last 15 matches.
- Liu's break points converted: 49.6% (62/125) in last 15 matches.
Liu's hard-court record in his last 10 matches is 8-2, with a 63.3% games won percentage. Uchida's hard-court record in his last 9 matches is 1-8, with a 38.2% games won percentage.
This match is on hard court, where Liu has been far more effective recently. Uchida's struggles on hard courts are consistent with his overall poor form, making Liu the clear favorite on this surface.
- Liu's last 10 hard-court matches: 8-2 record, 63.3% games won.
- Uchida's last 9 hard-court matches: 1-8 record, 38.2% games won.
- Liu's hard-court return points won: 49.7%.
- Uchida's hard-court return points won: 32.5%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Liu's dominant recent form and superior return game on hard courts give him a clear edge over Uchida, who has lost 14 of his last 15 matches.
- Hanyi Liu last 15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%), while Kaichi Uchida is 1-14 (6.7%) in the same window.
- Liu's last 15 hard-court record is 8-2 (80%) with 63.3% games won; Uchida's hard-court record is 1-8 (11.1%) with 38.2% games won.
- Liu has won 8 of his last 10 matches, including a 6-2 6-1 win over Xing Dao Chen on 2026-08-26; Uchida lost 6-1 7-6(3) to Tianhui Zhang on 2026-08-26.
- Liu's return points won is 48.8% overall and 49.7% on hard; Uchida's return points won is 31.5% overall and 32.5% on hard.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHanyi LiuEstimated chance78%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Liu's superior recent form and hard-court performance should produce a comfortable game margin.
- Liu's average games won per match in his last 15 is 10.8; Uchida's average games won is 6.7.
- Liu's hard-court games won percentage is 63.3%; Uchida's is 38.2%.
- In Liu's last 10 hard-court matches, he won by an average margin of 5.2 games.
- Uchida has lost his last 15 matches by an average margin of 6.0 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonHanyi Liu -3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches have been relatively short, and Liu's dominance suggests a straight-set win with limited total games.
- Liu's last 15 matches average 17.7 total games per match (265 games / 15 matches).
- Uchida's last 15 matches average 18.7 total games per match (281 games / 15 matches).
- In Liu's last 10 hard-court matches, 7 finished with 20 or fewer games.
- Uchida has lost 12 of his last 15 matches in straight sets, often by lopsided scores.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets tend to be one-sided, and Liu's strong start should keep the set under 10 games.
- Liu's average first-set games in his last 15 matches is 8.9 (133 games / 15 sets).
- Uchida's average first-set games in his last 15 matches is 8.7 (130 games / 15 sets).
- In Liu's last 5 matches, first-set scores were 6-3, 6-2, 4-6, 6-2, 6-1.
- Uchida has lost the first set 6-1, 6-2, 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 in his last five matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamespushUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Liu's ability to close out matches efficiently and Uchida's fading in second sets support an under on second-set games.
- Liu's average second-set games in his last 15 matches is 8.8 (132 games / 15 sets).
- Uchida's average second-set games in his last 15 matches is 9.0 (135 games / 15 sets).
- In Liu's last 5 matches, second-set scores were 6-2, 6-1, 7-5, 6-1, 6-1.
- Uchida has lost the second set 7-6, 6-1, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 in his last five matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Liu's strong first-set record and Uchida's pattern of slow starts make Liu the likely first-set winner.
- Liu's first-set win conversion is 87% career, and he has won the first set in 10 of his last 15 matches.
- Uchida has lost the first set in 13 of his last 15 matches, including his last 10 straight.
- Liu's first-serve points won is 68.5% overall and 70% on hard; Uchida's first-serve points won is 68% overall and 69.9% on hard, but Uchida's first-serve percentage is only 52.8%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostHanyi LiuEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The form gap suggests Liu will win in straight sets, making under 2.5 sets likely.
- Liu has won 10 of his last 15 matches in straight sets.
- Uchida has lost 12 of his last 15 matches in straight sets.
- Liu's sets won percentage is 75% overall; Uchida's is 6.7%.
- Liu's first-set win conversion is 87% career, and he often dominates weaker opponents.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The expected one-sided nature of the match reduces the likelihood of a tiebreak.
- Liu's tiebreak win percentage is 48% career, and he has played only 2 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- Uchida's tiebreak win percentage is 50% career, and he has played 3 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- In Liu's last 15 matches, only 2 sets went to a tiebreak.
- Uchida's last 15 matches had 3 tiebreak sets, but most sets were decided by 2+ games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server, and a straight-set match limits total ace opportunities.
- Liu averages 1.8 aces per match in his last 15; Uchida averages 3.5 aces per match.
- Combined average aces per match is 5.3, but Uchida's ace count is inflated by one 8-ace match on indoor hard.
- On hard courts, Liu averages 1.9 aces and Uchida averages 3.7 aces, but Uchida's first-serve percentage is only 52.1%.
- Both players have moderate ace rates, and the match is expected to be short.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have double-fault rates that suggest the total will exceed 4.5 in a typical match.
- Liu averages 2.1 double faults per match in his last 15; Uchida averages 2.9.
- Combined average double faults per match is 5.0.
- Uchida's second-serve points won is only 45% overall and 44.9% on hard, indicating pressure on his second serve.
- Liu's second-serve points won is 49% overall, but he still commits over 2 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Hanyi Liu

11W 4L

6-3 6-2#640Chase Ferguson

6-2 6-1—Xing Dao Chen

4-6 6-3 7-5#844Hoyoung Roh

6-2 6-1—Jia Hu

6-1 6-1—Kosuke Shibano

6-2 6-4#1581Zhao Zhao

6-4 6-3#661Yuta Kawahashi

4-6 6-0 3-0 ret.#553Kokoro Isomura

6-1 6-1—Artem Alekseychuk

7-5 6-2#640Chase Ferguson

6-1 6-2#299Matthew Dellavedova

6-2 7-6(3)#893Yaojie Zeng

6-2 6-3#896Grigoriy Lomakin

6-2 6-0—Kaigaoge Kang

6-0 6-4#850Wishaya Trongcharoenchaikul

Kaichi Uchida

1W 14L

6-1 7-6(3)#857Tianhui Zhang

6-2 6-1#183Alexis Galarneau

6-4 6-3#316Daniel Milavsky

6-4 6-4#386Jack Kennedy

6-3 6-2#179Bernard Tomic

6-3 6-4#456Quinn Vandecasteele

6-4 6-4#288Pierre-Hugues Herbert

6-0 6-1#237Max Houkes

6-2 6-2#150Soon-Woo Kwon

6-4 7-5#242James McCabe

6-4 7-5#183Alexis Galarneau

6-3 6-4#395Justin Boulais

6-2 7-6(5)#545Alexandr Binda

7-6(3) 6-1#197Liam Broady

6-4 6-2#318Fajing Sun

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HLHanyi LiuLiu

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Kaichi UchidaUchidaKU

Hanyi Liu carries the stronger recent form — Kaichi Uchida's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.6%+8.8pp52.8%

1st Serve Won68.5%—68.0%

2nd Serve Won49.0%+4.0pp45.0%

Aces / Match1.8+1.73.5

Double Faults / Match2.10.8 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won48.8%+17.3pp31.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted49.6%+17.7pp31.9%

Break Pts Saved66.0%+17.0pp49.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.9%+10.7pp44.2%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

61.6%1st Serve In+8.8pp52.8%

68.5%1st Serve Won—68.0%

49.0%2nd Serve Won+4.0pp45.0%

1.8Aces / Match+1.73.5

2.1Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

48.8%Return Pts Won+17.3pp31.5%

Pressure · 2–0

49.6%Break Pts Converted+17.7pp31.9%

66.0%Break Pts Saved+17.0pp49.0%

Points · 1–0

54.9%Total Pts Won+10.7pp44.2%