United StatesWTA US OpenFinished

Predictions graded

Lucie Havlickova #230Czechia2Nao Hibino #225Japan0

Sets 6-0 · 6-4Fri 28 Aug 2026, 15:00 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions1–420%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNao Hibino · 5 places

Lucie Havlickova

Czechia

Havlickova is a 21-year-old Czech right-hander. Official WTA and ITF profiles list hard court as her favourite surface and a career-high singles ranking of No. 196, reached in July 2023.

Current ranking: #230
Peak ranking: #196 · 2023
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Nao Hibino

Japan

ITF lists Hibino's preferred surface as hard and her career-high singles ranking as No. 56, reached on 18 January 2016. Her listed ranking was No. 225 on 20 July 2026.

Current ranking: #225
Peak ranking: #56 · 2016
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 163 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Aug 2026, 06:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Nao Hibino is the strong favorite over Lucie Havlickova in this US Open qualifying match, with a 62% win probability and a 10.7-point edge on the moneyline at 1.95.

Hibino's superior hard-court form, dominant H2H win, and Havlickova's second-serve vulnerability make her the best bet. Avoid the straight-sets market despite the odds, as Havlickova's recent form suggests she could push for a third set.

Context

Hibino won 6-0, 6-4 on 2026-07-07 in a WTA tournament.
- Hibino won 57% of return points in that match, while Havlickova won only 40%.
- Havlickova's second serve was especially weak, winning just 29% of points behind it.
Hibino's last 15 hard-court record is 7-4 (63.6%), Havlickova's is 4-4 (50%).
- Hibino wins 66.1% of first-serve points on hard, Havlickova 67.2%.
- Hibino wins 45.4% of return points on hard, Havlickova 44.6%.
Havlickova's hard-court second-serve points won is 40.7% over 7 tracked matches.
- She averages 6.3 double faults per match on hard.
- In their H2H, Havlickova won only 29% of second-serve points.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Hibino's recent hard-court form and direct H2H win give her a clear edge in this qualifying match.
- Hibino leads H2H 1-0, winning 6-0 6-4 on hard court on 2026-07-07.
- Hibino's last 15 hard-court record is 7-4 (63.6%), while Havlickova is 4-4 (50%).
- Hibino's last 15 overall return points won on hard is 45.4% vs Havlickova's 44.6%.
- Hibino's first serve points won on hard is 66.1% vs Havlickova's 67.2%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNao HibinoEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are competitive on hard courts, suggesting a match that could extend beyond 20 games.
- Havlickova's last 15 hard-court matches average 97.7 minutes and 21.3 games per match.
- Hibino's last 15 hard-court matches average 105 minutes and 20.6 games per match.
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 50-57% on hard.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Hibino's strong first-set performance in H2H and solid hard-court serving make her likely to take the opener.
- Hibino won the first set 6-0 in their only H2H meeting.
- Hibino's last 15 hard-court first serve points won is 66.1%.
- Havlickova's last 15 hard-court first serve points won is 67.2%, but her second serve points won is only 40.7%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostNao HibinoEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player has a strong tiebreak tendency, and the H2H match had no tiebreak.
- Havlickova's tiebreak win percentage is 50% career.
- Hibino's tiebreak win percentage is 58% career.
- In their H2H match, no tiebreak was played.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Havlickova's high double fault rate pushes the combined total above the line.
- Havlickova averages 6.3 double faults per match on hard in last 15.
- Hibino averages 3.9 double faults per match on hard in last 15.
- Combined average is 10.2 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players contribute aces, and the combined average is close to the line.
- Hibino averages 3.0 aces per match on hard in last 15.
- Havlickova averages 2.4 aces per match on hard in last 15.
- Combined average is 5.4 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Nao Hibino has been highly reliable when projected to win

Nao Hibino has fulfilled 4 of 5 recent win predictions, a strong 80% success rate. Her average estimated probability was 69%, with an expected 3.5 fulfilled predictions, so she has outperformed expectations. The only miss came at a lower 62% probability, while her successful predictions averaged 70.8%, suggesting she is especially dependable when rated above that level.

Recent evidence for Nao Hibino5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·WTA Vancouver

—Teah Chavez0-2#225Nao Hibino

BetBugsNao Hibino to win·65%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

WTA Vancouver

—Teah Chavez0-2#225Nao Hibino

Nao Hibino to win

65%probability

Nao Hibino won

Matched

18 Jul·WTA Prague

#157Sofia Costoulas2-1#235Nao Hibino

BetBugsNao Hibino to win·62%

Missed

18 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#157Sofia Costoulas2-1#235Nao Hibino

Nao Hibino to win

62%probability

Sofia Costoulas won

Missed

12 Jul·WTA Athens

#246Nao Hibino2-0#379Miriana Tona

BetBugsNao Hibino to win·78%

Matched

12 Jul 2026

WTA Athens

#246Nao Hibino2-0#379Miriana Tona

Nao Hibino to win

78%probability

Nao Hibino won

Matched

23 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#149Priscilla Hon0-2#247Nao Hibino

BetBugsNao Hibino to win·58%

Matched

23 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#149Priscilla Hon0-2#247Nao Hibino

Nao Hibino to win

58%probability

Nao Hibino won

Matched

13 May·Zagreb

#185Nao Hibino2-1#886Elza Tomase

BetBugsNao Hibino to win·82%

Matched

13 May 2026

Zagreb

#185Nao Hibino2-1#886Elza Tomase

Nao Hibino to win

82%probability

Nao Hibino won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-0 6-4Lucie Havlickova#225vNao Hibino#227Jul 7, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Lucie Havlickova

8W 7L

6-2 2-6 7-6(6)#99Moyuka Uchijima 6-2 7-5#166Elizara Yaneva

3-6 6-4 6-3#542Valeriya Strakhova

6-4 6-1#899Victoria Bervid

6-4 6-2#28Barbora Krejcikova

6-2 6-4#89Alycia Parks

6-7(3) 6-3 6-3#215Harmony Tan

6-0 6-4#227Nao Hibino

7-5 7-5#385Stephanie Judith Visscher

6-0 6-2—Maria Garcia

7-5 5-7 6-4#219Maria Lourdes Carle

4-6 7-6(3) 6-1#242Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

6-1 6-7(5) 6-4#434Jana Kovackova

6-2 6-3#306Hibah Shaikh

7-6(5) 7-5#291Yasmine Kabbaj

Nao Hibino

8W 7L

6-4 6-2#207Anna Siskova 7-6(4) 6-1#809Janae Preston

6-1 3-6 6-2#97Mananchaya Sawangkaew

6-1 6-2#717Teah Chavez

6-7(4) 7-5 6-4#155Sofia Costoulas

7-5 6-4#42Clara Tauson

6-4 6-0#355Miriana Tona

6-0 6-4#225Lucie Havlickova

6-4 6-2#143Carol Young Suh Lee

3-6 6-1 6-1#389Vaishnavi Adkar

7-6(10) 6-1#862Iveta Dapkute

6-4 1-6 6-2#109Darja Semenistaja

6-2 6-2#156Priscilla Hon

6-2 6-2#91Katie Volynets

6-4 3-6 6-2#35Janice Tjen

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LHLucie HavlickovaHavlickova

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Nao HibinoHibinoNH

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1557.3%+7.0pp64.3%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1567.1%+1.3pp65.8%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1543.1%+2.9pp46.0%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/152.1+0.93.0

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/156.32.2 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1545.8%+2.8pp43.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1545.5%+2.4pp43.1%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1563.9%+2.0pp61.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1551.5%—50.9%

Serve · 1–4

57.3%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+7.0pp64.3%

67.1%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+1.3pp65.8%

43.1%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+2.9pp46.0%

2.1Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+0.93.0

6.3Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/152.2 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

45.8%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+2.8pp43.0%

Pressure · 2–0

45.5%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+2.4pp43.1%

63.9%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+2.0pp61.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.5%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15—50.9%