Moyuka Uchijima #100Japan11 – 2Lucie Havlickova #230Czechia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Uchijima's stronger recent hard-court form, higher ranking, and better first-serve effectiveness give her a moderate edge over Havlickova.

• Uchijima last 15 on hard: 5-3 record, 51.5% games won, 69.5% first-serve points won.
• Havlickova last 15 on hard: 3-4 record, 49.6% games won, 66.9% first-serve points won.
• Uchijima ranking 99 vs Havlickova 225; Uchijima has 2026 hard-court wins over top-50 Bucsa and top-150 Sakatsume.
• Havlickova's recent hard-court losses include Hibino (rank 227) and Visscher (rank 385).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

The first set is likely to be closely contested with multiple service breaks, pushing the total over 9.5 games.

• Uchijima's last 8 hard-court first sets averaged 9.8 games.
• Havlickova's last 7 hard-court first sets averaged 9.6 games.
• Both players have break-point conversion rates near 45-50%, leading to multiple breaks.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.59

The read

Uchijima's tendency to start fast on hard courts and Havlickova's slower starts support Uchijima taking the opening set.

• Uchijima won first set in 5 of her last 8 hard-court matches.
• Havlickova lost first set in 4 of her last 7 hard-court matches.
• Uchijima's first-set win conversion career is 92%.