JamaicaKingston - JamaicaFinished

Predictions graded

Pietro Orlando Fellin #539Italy0Miguel Tobon #499Colombia2

Sets 2-6 · 1-6Tue 25 Aug 2026, 20:50 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions0–70%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMiguel Tobon · 40 places

Pietro Orlando Fellin

Italy

Fellin is a 24-year-old Italian right-hander listed at 193 cm. Available profile data lists hard courts as his preferred surface and a career-best ranking of No. 433 in July 2026.

Current ranking: #539
Peak ranking: #433 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Miguel Tobon

Colombia

Structured player data lists Tobon at No. 499, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and 183 cm.

Current ranking: #499
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 16:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Fellin's stronger recent form and hard-court career baseline make him the likely winner over Tobon, despite a slight ranking disadvantage.

Betting value lies in Fellin on the moneyline and over 9.5 games in the first set, with a competitive match expected.

Context

Fellin last15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Tobon 5-10 (33.3%).
- Fellin last15 hard-court record 0-1, winning only 35% of games.
- Fellin's only hard-court match in the window was a 6-1 7-6(1) loss to Lucas Andrade Da Silva on 16 August.
Tobon last15 aces per match 3.7 vs Fellin 2.7.
- Tobon last15 double faults per match 3.9 vs Fellin 1.9.
- Tobon last15 hard-court double faults per match 4.6 (5 matches tracked).
Fellin lost to Lucas Andrade Da Silva in Kingston 1 qualifying on 16 August.
- Tobon won one qualifying match and lost in the final round on 17-18 August.
- The Kingston Open runs as consecutive Challenger tournaments at the Liguanea Club.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Fellin's stronger recent form and superior hard-court career baseline outweigh Tobon's slight ranking edge.
- Fellin last15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Tobon 5-10 (33.3%)
- Fellin last15 total points won 51.0% vs Tobon 49.2%
- Fellin career hard-court wins 79 vs Tobon 14
- Fellin ranking 539 vs Tobon 499
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPietro Orlando FellinEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average well above 21.5 total games, suggesting a competitive match with multiple close sets.
- Fellin last15 average duration 127.5 minutes
- Tobon last15 average duration 114.4 minutes
- Fellin last15 games per match average 23.7
- Tobon last15 games per match average 25.1
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players' recent first sets average over 9.5 games, indicating tight opening sets.
- Fellin last15 first-set average games 9.8
- Tobon last15 first-set average games 10.3
- Tobon last15 hard-court first-set average games 10.6
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have also trended over 9.5 games for both players in recent matches.
- Fellin last15 second-set average games 9.5
- Tobon last15 second-set average games 9.7
- Tobon last15 hard-court second-set average games 10.2
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fellin's high first-set conversion rate and Tobon's poor recent hard-court results give Fellin a slight edge in the opening set.
- Fellin first-set win conversion career 88%
- Fellin last15 first-serve points won 67.8% vs Tobon 68.5%
- Tobon last15 hard-court record 1-4
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPietro Orlando FellinEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tobon's high double-fault rate, especially on hard courts (4.6 per match), makes the combined total likely to exceed 5.5.
- Fellin last15 double faults per match 1.9
- Tobon last15 double faults per match 3.9
- Combined last15 double faults per match 5.8
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have frequent tiebreaks in recent matches, and the competitive nature of this matchup increases the likelihood of at least one tiebreak.
- Fellin career tiebreak win rate 60%
- Tobon career tiebreak win rate 49%
- Fellin last15 matches with tiebreak 6 of 15
- Tobon last15 matches with tiebreak 7 of 15
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates are just below the line, but Tobon's higher ace count on hard courts could push the total over.
- Fellin last15 aces per match 2.7
- Tobon last15 aces per match 3.7
- Combined last15 aces per match 6.4
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Pietro Orlando Fellin

10W 5L

6-1 7-6(1)#820Lucas Andrade Da Silva

6-3 3-1 ret.#222Francesco Passaro

6-3 1-6 7-5#482Luca Potenza

6-3 7-6(3)#900Johannes Ingildsen

6-4 6-2#721Matyas Cerny

1-6 6-1 7-5—Veljko Krstic

7-6(4) 7-6(2)—Radovan Michalik

6-4 6-4—Nico Hipfl

6-4 6-3#513Khumoun Sultanov

7-6(3) 6-7(5) 6-2#823Abel Forger

6-2 6-4#886Tomas Lanik

3-6 6-3 7-5#773Attila Boros

6-3 6-1—Luka Talan Lopatic

1-6 7-6(2) 7-6(5)#513Khumoun Sultanov

4-6 6-3 7-6(5)#351Oriol Roca Batalla

Miguel Tobon

5W 10L

7-6(4) 6-2#528Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

6-7(6) 6-2 7-6(2)#877Lorenzo Claverie

5-7 6-4 7-6(5)#164Bernard Tomic

6-7(3) 6-3 7-6(2)#589Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

6-4 6-7(7) 6-3#349Tiago Pereira

6-2 6-2#87Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-4 4-6 6-4#255Martin Krumich

6-4 3-6 7-6(5)#659Ryan Seggerman

6-3 6-2#729Yanaki Milev

6-4 6-2#572Alexander Vasilev

6-3 ret.#664Peter Fajta

6-2 6-4#328Enrico Dalla Valle

6-3 6-2#423Mika Brunold

6-7(4) 6-4 6-1#271Juan Bautista Torres

4-6 7-6(5) 6-3#375Andrea Collarini

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PFPietro Orlando FellinFellin

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Miguel TobonTobonMT

Pietro Orlando Fellin carries the stronger recent form — Miguel Tobon's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In63.4%+4.4pp59.0%

1st Serve Won67.8%—68.5%

2nd Serve Won52.6%+2.3pp50.3%

Aces / Match2.7+1.03.7

Double Faults / Match1.92.0 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.7%+2.7pp37.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted39.1%+5.7pp44.8%

Break Pts Saved59.3%+2.5pp56.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.0%+1.8pp49.2%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

63.4%1st Serve In+4.4pp59.0%

67.8%1st Serve Won—68.5%

52.6%2nd Serve Won+2.3pp50.3%

2.7Aces / Match+1.03.7

1.9Double Faults / Match2.0 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

39.7%Return Pts Won+2.7pp37.0%

Pressure · 1–1

39.1%Break Pts Converted+5.7pp44.8%

59.3%Break Pts Saved+2.5pp56.8%

Points · 1–0

51.0%Total Pts Won+1.8pp49.2%