GermanyAugsburg - GermanyFinished

Predictions graded

Marvin Moeller #319Germany2Thomas Faurel #323France0

Sets 6-1 · 6-3Tue 25 Aug 2026, 16:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions4–267%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMarvin Moeller · 4 places

Marvin Moeller

Germany

Moeller reached a career-high No. 287 on 27 May 2024 and is No. 319 in the supplied current data. He is a 27-year-old right-hander from Hamburg.

Current ranking: #319
Peak ranking: #287 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Thomas Faurel

France

French right-hander, age 20. He reached a career-high No. 307 on 22 June 2026 and made his Grand Slam main-draw debut after qualifying for Roland Garros in May 2026.

Current ranking: #323
Peak ranking: #307 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 15:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Moeller's superior clay form and return game make him the favorite, but Faurel's resilience could push the match to three sets.

The best betting angle is over 21.5 total games, while the moneyline offers little value at 1.60.

Context

Moeller's last 15 on clay: 11-4 record, 54% games won, 51.9% total points won.
- Faurel's last 15 on clay: 5-10 record, 49.6% games won, 49.9% total points won.
- Moeller has won 8 of his last 10 completed matches, including wins over players ranked 232, 251, and 266.
- Faurel has lost 6 of his last 8 matches, with only one win over a top-200 opponent in that span.
Faurel won the first set in 5 of his last 15 matches (33%).
- Faurel went to three sets in 8 of his last 15 matches (53%).
- Moeller won the first set in 9 of his last 15 matches (60%).
- Moeller has converted 89% of first-set wins into match wins in his career.
Moeller return points won in last 15 on clay: 42.8%.
- Faurel return points won in last 15 on clay: 38.5%.
- Moeller breaks serve on 41.9% of break point chances; Faurel converts only 35.8%.
- Faurel saves 63.6% of break points, slightly better than Moeller's 62.4%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Marvin Moeller

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Moeller's superior recent clay form and return numbers give him a clear edge in this first-round Challenger match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Moeller's superior recent clay form and return numbers give him a clear edge in this first-round Challenger match.
- Moeller last 15 on clay: 11-4 record, 54% games won, 51.9% total points won
- Faurel last 15 on clay: 5-10 record, 49.6% games won, 49.9% total points won
- Moeller return points won 42.8% vs Faurel 38.5% in last 15
- Moeller first set win conversion 89% career vs Faurel 81%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMarvin MoellerEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 23 total games, supporting an over on 21.5 games.
- Moeller last 15 average total games per match: 23.2
- Faurel last 15 average total games per match: 25.4
- Combined average total games: 24.3
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets average close to 10 games, making over 9.5 a reasonable lean.
- Moeller set 1 average games in last 15: 9.7
- Faurel set 1 average games in last 15: 9.9
- Combined set 1 average: 9.8
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Moeller's stronger recent form and higher first-set win rate make him the likely set 1 winner.
- Moeller won first set in 9 of last 15 matches (60%)
- Faurel won first set in 5 of last 15 matches (33%)
- Moeller first set win conversion 89% career
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMarvin MoellerEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average under 2 double faults per match, making under 4.5 the lean.
- Moeller double faults per match last 15: 1.8
- Faurel double faults per match last 15: 1.9
- Combined average double faults per match: 3.7
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace averages are just below the line, but a three-set match could push the total over 5.5.
- Moeller aces per match last 15: 2.5
- Faurel aces per match last 15: 2.6
- Combined average aces per match: 5.1
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Marvin Moeller

11W 4L

6-3 6-4#387Dimitar Kuzmanov

4-6 7-6(5) 7-5#347Jan Kumstat

6-2 6-4#251Matej Dodig

6-4 6-0#531Niels Mcdonald

5-7 7-6(5) 7-6(4)#232Raul Brancaccio

6-1 5-7 6-4#266Cezar Cretu

6-2 6-4#97Hugo Gaston

6-3 5-0 ret.#70Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

0-6 6-3 7-6(6)#847Benito Sanchez Martinez

7-6(5) 6-3#235Kilian Feldbausch

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#326Calvin Hemery

6-2 3-6 7-6(1)#399Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-2 6-3—Mickael Kaouk

6-4 6-2#643Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski

6-2 7-5#442Dylan Dietrich

Thomas Faurel

5W 10L

2-6 6-2 6-4#266Cezar Cretu

6-4 6-4#366Nicolas Kicker

7-6(2) 6-2#344Facundo Mena

6-1 7-6(8)#149Timofey Skatov

7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(8)#206Daniel Rincon

3-6 7-6(6) 6-4#302Miguel Damas

6-3 6-4#172Elmer Moller

6-0 2-6 6-2#179Jerome Kym

7-6(9) 3-6 6-4#316Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

7-5 6-4#546Gerard Campana Lee

6-4 6-4#343Ognjen Milic

7-5 6-4#163Clement Tabur

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#247Florent Bax

6-3 6-4 3-6 7-6(6)#19Valentin Vacherot

6-2 6-3#114Dalibor Svrcina

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MMMarvin MoellerMoeller

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Thomas FaurelFaurelTF

Marvin Moeller carries the stronger recent form — Thomas Faurel's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In59.3%+6.9pp66.2%

1st Serve Won70.4%+5.0pp65.4%

2nd Serve Won49.2%+5.0pp54.2%

Aces / Match2.5—2.6

Double Faults / Match1.8—1.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.8%+4.3pp38.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted41.9%+6.1pp35.8%

Break Pts Saved62.4%+1.2pp63.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.9%+2.0pp49.9%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

59.3%1st Serve In+6.9pp66.2%

70.4%1st Serve Won+5.0pp65.4%

49.2%2nd Serve Won+5.0pp54.2%

2.5Aces / Match—2.6

1.8Double Faults / Match—1.9

Return · 1–0

42.8%Return Pts Won+4.3pp38.5%

Pressure · 1–1

41.9%Break Pts Converted+6.1pp35.8%

62.4%Break Pts Saved+1.2pp63.6%

Points · 1–0

51.9%Total Pts Won+2.0pp49.9%