United StatesWTA US OpenFinished

Predictions graded

Lucie Havlickova #230Czechia2Elizara Yaneva #1930

Sets 6-2 · 7-5Tue 25 Aug 2026, 15:02 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions0–70%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageElizara Yaneva · 37 places

Lucie Havlickova

Czechia

Havlickova is a 21-year-old Czech right-hander. Official WTA and ITF profiles list hard court as her favourite surface and a career-high singles ranking of No. 196, reached in July 2023.

Current ranking: #230
Peak ranking: #196 · 2023
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Elizara Yaneva

Yaneva is a 19-year-old right-hander whose ITF profile lists hard as her preferred surface. She was ranked No. 193 on August 3, 2026 after reaching a career-high No. 186 on July 20.

Current ranking: #193
Peak ranking: #186 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 16:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Yaneva is favored due to better recent form and hard-court record, but the odds overprice her.

The over 21.5 total games offers value, while set 1 winner and over 2.5 sets should be avoided.

Context

Yaneva's last 15 hard-court record is 3-1 (75%), compared to Havlickova's 2-4 (33%).
- Yaneva's overall last 15 record is 9-6 (60%), while Havlickova is 6-9 (40%).
- Yaneva's return points won on hard courts is 47.6%, higher than Havlickova's 43.5%.
Havlickova's hard-court first-serve points won is 66.9% over 6 matches.
- Yaneva's hard-court first-serve points won is 59.1% over 4 matches.
- Havlickova's first-serve percentage on hard courts is 58.7%, similar to Yaneva's 64.7%.
Havlickova's double faults per match is 6.5 over 15 matches.
- Yaneva's double faults per match is 3.9 over 15 matches.
- Havlickova's second-serve points won is only 40.9%, making her vulnerable after a fault.
H2H result: Havlickova def. Yaneva 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(3) on indoor hard.
- The match had 32 total games, indicating a long battle.
- Havlickova's first-serve points won in that match was 60%, Yaneva's 63%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Elizara Yaneva

1.40fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Yaneva's superior recent form and hard-court record, combined with a stronger return game, give her the edge in this US Open qualifying match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Yaneva's superior recent form and hard-court record, combined with a stronger return game, give her the edge in this US Open qualifying match.
- Yaneva last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Havlickova 6-9 (40%)
- Yaneva hard-court last 15 record 3-1 (75%) vs Havlickova 2-4 (33%)
- Yaneva return points won 48.4% vs Havlickova 45.0% in last 15
- Yaneva ranking 170 vs Havlickova 230
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostElizara YanevaEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 22 games, and their serving vulnerabilities increase the likelihood of extended sets.
- Havlickova last 15 average 23.3 games per match
- Yaneva last 15 average 22.0 games per match
- H2H match had 32 games
- Both players have high double fault rates (Havlickova 6.5, Yaneva 3.9 per match)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent first sets average around 10 games, suggesting a competitive opening set.
- Havlickova last 15 first set average 10.1 games
- Yaneva last 15 first set average 9.7 games
- H2H first set had 10 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Yaneva's overall set-winning rate and hard-court form suggest she is slightly more likely to take the opening set.
- Yaneva first set win conversion 81% career vs Havlickova 88%
- Yaneva hard-court first serve points won 59.1% vs Havlickova 66.9%
- Yaneva last 15 sets won 55.6% vs Havlickova 44.4%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostElizara YanevaEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Havlickova's high double fault rate, combined with Yaneva's moderate rate, makes over 9.5 double faults likely.
- Havlickova last 15 double faults per match 6.5
- Yaneva last 15 double faults per match 3.9
- Combined average 10.4 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance62%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-4 3-6 7-6(3)Lucie Havlickova#230vElizara Yaneva#170Nov 23, 2025

1 total meetings

Lucie Havlickova

6W 9L

3-6 6-4 6-3#566Valeriya Strakhova

6-4 6-1#899Victoria Bervid

6-4 6-2#26Barbora Krejcikova

6-2 6-4#63Alycia Parks

6-7(3) 6-3 6-3#207Harmony Tan

6-0 6-4#225Nao Hibino

7-5 7-5#388Stephanie Judith Visscher

6-0 6-2—Maria Garcia

7-5 5-7 6-4#222Maria Lourdes Carle

4-6 7-6(3) 6-1#243Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

6-1 6-7(5) 6-4#549Jana Kovackova

6-2 6-3#308Hibah Shaikh

7-6(5) 7-5#294Yasmine Kabbaj

6-3 6-7(2) 6-3#179Linda Fruhvirtova

6-4 6-1#419Laura Hietaranta

Elizara Yaneva

9W 6L

7-6(4) 6-2#186Gabriela Andrea Knutson

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#208Mona Barthel

5-7 6-0 6-2#126Yue Yuan

2-6 7-5 6-1#201Linda Klimovicova

5-7 7-6(2) 6-1#282Federica Urgesi

4-6 6-2 6-2#323Martina Trevisan

6-2 7-6(4)#262Sofya Lansere

6-3 6-2#99Oksana Selekhmeteva

6-1 6-4#89Katie Volynets

6-2 6-4#348Yuriko Miyazaki

6-3 6-3#49Mayar Sherif

2-6 6-1 6-2#165Ekaterine Gorgodze

6-2 6-1#159Jazmin Ortenzi

6-3 6-3#336Georgia Pedone

7-6(5) 6-1#135Lisa Pigato

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LHLucie HavlickovaHavlickova

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Elizara YanevaYanevaEY

Elizara Yaneva carries the stronger recent form — Lucie Havlickova's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In57.9%+4.8pp62.7%

1st Serve Won66.7%+8.1pp58.6%

2nd Serve Won40.9%+3.4pp44.3%

Aces / Match2.3+0.41.9

Double Faults / Match6.52.6 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won45.0%+3.4pp48.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted45.7%+4.3pp50.0%

Break Pts Saved61.8%+7.2pp54.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.6%—50.9%

Serve · 2–3

57.9%1st Serve In+4.8pp62.7%

66.7%1st Serve Won+8.1pp58.6%

40.9%2nd Serve Won+3.4pp44.3%

2.3Aces / Match+0.41.9

6.5Double Faults / Match2.6 fewer3.9

Return · 0–1

45.0%Return Pts Won+3.4pp48.4%

Pressure · 1–1

45.7%Break Pts Converted+4.3pp50.0%

61.8%Break Pts Saved+7.2pp54.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.6%Total Pts Won—50.9%