United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

George Loffhagen #488United Kingdom2Alastair Gray #270United Kingdom0

Sets 6-2 · 7-6Tue 25 Aug 2026, 12:25 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions1–517%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlastair Gray · 218 places

George Loffhagen

United Kingdom

Loffhagen reached a singles career high of No. 200 on 27 October 2025. The LTA lists hard as his favourite surface and Ryan Jones as his coach; no current injury restriction was verified in the search.

Current ranking: #488
Peak ranking: #200 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Alastair Gray

United Kingdom

Gray reached his singles career high of No. 237 in September 2022. The LTA lists hard and grass as his preferred surfaces; its background bio notes a past extended injury absence, not a current fitness concern.

Current ranking: #270
Peak ranking: #237 · 2022
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard / Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 15:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Alastair Gray is the clear favorite based on a dominant H2H win, better recent form, and superior serve metrics.

Back Gray on the moneyline at 1.90 for value, and consider over 9.5 total aces given both players' serving tendencies.

Context

Gray's last 15 by-surface record on grass is 6-4 (60% win rate).
- Loffhagen has no grass matches in his last 15 tracked matches.
- Gray's grass matches include wins over players ranked 244, 692, and 812.
Loffhagen retired against Dominic Stricker on 11 May 2026 at 4-1 down.
- He also retired against Mikhail Kukushkin on 24 February 2026 at 0-1 down.
- No current injury news confirms an ongoing issue, but the pattern is notable.
Gray won the only H2H match 6-3 6-1 in February 2025.
- Gray won 76% of first-serve points and 62% of second-serve points in that match.
- Loffhagen won only 28% of return points in that match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Gray's superior recent form, surface fit, and dominant H2H win give him a clear edge.
- Alastair Gray won the only H2H meeting 6-3 6-1 on I.hard in Feb 2025.
- Gray's last 15 overall record is 46.7% vs Loffhagen's 33.3%.
- Gray has a 60% win rate on grass in last 15 (6-4), while Loffhagen has no recent grass matches.
- Gray's career win percentage is 65.2% vs Loffhagen's 62.7%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlastair GrayEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Gray's edge, Loffhagen's competitiveness and similar serve numbers could extend the match.
- Loffhagen's last 15 average match duration is 99.4 minutes, Gray's is 102 minutes.
- Loffhagen's last 15 games won percentage is 49.5%, Gray's is 52.2%.
- Both players have similar serve stats, suggesting competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Strong serving and break point saving from both players could lead to a tight first set.
- Loffhagen's last 15 first serve points won is 70.8%, Gray's is 71.6%.
- Both players have break point save rates above 65% in last 15.
- H2H first set was 6-3, but current form suggests closer sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gray's strong first-set record and H2H dominance suggest he starts fast.
- Gray won the only H2H first set 6-3.
- Gray's first set win conversion is 89% career vs Loffhagen's 85%.
- Gray's last 15 first serve points won is 71.6% vs Loffhagen's 70.8%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlastair GrayEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average is just under 5.5, making under 5.5 slightly more likely.
- Loffhagen averages 2.5 double faults per match in last 15, Gray averages 2.7.
- Combined average is 5.2 double faults per match.
- Both players have similar double fault rates.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace averages suggest a total around 9-10 aces, making over 9.5 plausible.
- Gray averages 5.3 aces per match in last 15, Loffhagen averages 4.0.
- Gray's career aces total is 2020 in 385 matches, Loffhagen's is 1392 in 332 matches.
- Both players have first serve percentages around 60-66%.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-3 6-1George Loffhagen#488vAlastair Gray#270Feb 1, 2025

1 total meetings

George Loffhagen

5W 10L

6-4 7-6(3)—Mark Ceban

6-2 6-2#883Giulio Perego

4-1 ret.#336Dominic Stricker

6-2 7-6(2)#410Sebastian Sorger

6-3 6-2#145Tom Gentzsch

4-6 7-6(5) 6-2#134Jurij Rodionov

7-5 6-4#572Alexander Vasilev

4-6 7-5 7-6(5)#127Sebastian Ofner

1-0 ret.#333Mikhail Kukushkin

4-6 6-2 2-0 ret.#240Alejandro Moro Canas

6-4 6-4#166Francesco Maestrelli

7-5 6-3#371Jacopo Vasami

6-4 6-2#169Gauthier Onclin

5-7 6-4 6-4#148Nishesh Basavareddy

6-3 3-1 ret.#199Yoshihito Nishioka

Alastair Gray

7W 8L

4-6 6-3 6-2#441Adrian Boitan

4-6 6-3 6-2#475Emile Hudd

2-6 6-2 6-3#290Akira Santillan

7-6(4) 6-2#532Izan Almazan Valiente

7-5 6-3#205Clement Chidekh

6-3 6-4#244Yi Zhou

6-1 6-1#812Patrick Brady

6-2 6-4#692Oscar Weightman

7-6(3) 7-6(4)#34Matteo Arnaldi

6-4 7-5#226August Holmgren

6-1 6-1#889James Watt

6-3 6-4—Henry Jefferson

6-2 7-6(7)#306Filippo Romano

4-6 6-3 6-4#355Edward Winter

3-6 6-4 7-6(5)#273Petr Bar Biryukov

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GLGeorge LoffhagenLoffhagen

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Alastair GrayGrayAG

Alastair Gray carries the stronger recent form — George Loffhagen's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In59.4%+6.7pp66.1%

1st Serve Won70.8%+0.8pp71.6%

2nd Serve Won51.2%+1.0pp52.2%

Aces / Match4.0+1.35.3

Double Faults / Match2.5—2.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.7%+0.8pp37.9%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted28.6%+8.5pp37.1%

Break Pts Saved65.2%+4.5pp69.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.4%—51.1%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

59.4%1st Serve In+6.7pp66.1%

70.8%1st Serve Won+0.8pp71.6%

51.2%2nd Serve Won+1.0pp52.2%

4.0Aces / Match+1.35.3

2.5Double Faults / Match—2.7

Return · 1–0

38.7%Return Pts Won+0.8pp37.9%

Pressure · 0–2

28.6%Break Pts Converted+8.5pp37.1%

65.2%Break Pts Saved+4.5pp69.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.4%Total Pts Won—51.1%