Francesca Jones #104United Kingdom22 – 0Nuria Brancaccio #190Italy0

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15

The read

Jones has a stronger recent form and ranking edge, and despite both being clay specialists, her overall level is higher.

• Jones last15 overall record 13-2 (86.7%), Brancaccio 9-6 (60%)
• Jones last15 total points won 55.8% vs Brancaccio 52.2%
• Jones ranking 104 vs Brancaccio 190
• Jones 2026 hard court record 3-5, Brancaccio 0-2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Brancaccio's matches tend to be longer and both players are effective on return, suggesting a competitive match with more games.

• Jones last15 average 19.4 games per match, Brancaccio 22.1
• Brancaccio last15 7 of 15 matches went to 3 sets
• Both players have high break point conversion rates (Jones 54.1%, Brancaccio 51.7%)

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Jones's superior game-winning percentage and recent dominant wins suggest she can cover a -3.5 game handicap.

• Jones last15 games won 63.3% vs Brancaccio 53.8%
• Jones average games won per match 12.9 vs Brancaccio 11.9
• Jones has won 9 of her last 15 matches by 5+ games

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22

The read

Jones's superior first-serve and return numbers in the recent window give her an edge in the opening set.

• Jones first set win conversion 88% career
• Jones last15 first serve points won 64.9% vs Brancaccio 59.3%
• Jones last15 return points won 51.5% vs Brancaccio 49.3%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Neither player is a big server, and their recent ace rates suggest a low total ace count.

• Jones last15 aces per match 1.3, Brancaccio 2.0
• Combined average aces per match 3.3
• Both players are clay-court specialists with low ace counts

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Jones's elevated double fault rate and Brancaccio's moderate rate could push the total over the line.

• Jones last15 double faults per match 3.6, Brancaccio 2.5
• Combined average double faults per match 6.1
• Jones has a high double fault rate relative to her first serve percentage