United StatesWTA US OpenFinished

Predictions graded

Rebecca Marino #377Canada2Fiona Ferro #146France0

Sets 6-1 · 6-4Mon 24 Aug 2026, 15:00 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions0–60%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFiona Ferro · 231 places

Rebecca Marino

Canada

Canadian right-hander whose career-high singles ranking was No. 38 in July 2011. Reliable current-event availability information was thin in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #377
Peak ranking: #38 · 2011
Current age: 35
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Fiona Ferro

France

French right-hander with a career-high ranking of No. 39 in March 2021. ITF lists clay and hard as her preferred surfaces; WTA lists Emmanuel Planque as coach.

Current ranking: #146
Peak ranking: #39 · 2021
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay, Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 11:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Fiona Ferro is favored over Rebecca Marino based on recent form and return stats, but Marino's serve and hard-court ability keep it close.

The best betting angle is over 6.5 total aces, while Ferro -1.5 games is risky due to surface concerns.

Context

Ferro last15 bySurface: Clay 14 matches, Grass 1 match, Hard 0 matches.
- Ferro clay record in last15: 9-5 (64.3% win rate).
- Ferro's only grass match in the window was a 6-3 6-1 loss to Greetje Minnen.
- Ferro has not played a hard-court match in her last 15, so her current form may not transfer directly to the US Open surface.
Marino last15 overall aces per match: 6.4.
- Marino last15 overall first-serve points won: 69.1%.
- Marino's indoor hard record in last15: 3-1 with 59.7% games won.
- Marino's first-serve percentage is low at 51.4%, but when she gets the first serve in, she is effective.
Marino 2026 hard record: 2-4.
- Marino 2026 indoor hard record: 3-1, games won 59.7%.
- Marino's recent hard-court losses include matches against top-50 players like Zeynep Sonmez (rank 50) and Leylah Fernandez (rank 31).
- Marino's last15 hard-court record is 4-7, but she has been competitive in many of those matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Fiona Ferro

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Ferro's superior recent form and return game, combined with a better 2026 hard-court record, give her the edge despite Marino's serve advantage.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Ferro's superior recent form and return game, combined with a better 2026 hard-court record, give her the edge despite Marino's serve advantage.
- Ferro last15 overall record 60% (9-6), Marino 46.7% (7-8)
- Ferro last15 return points won 47.0%, Marino 42.4%
- Ferro 2026 hard record 5-3, Marino 2-4
- Ferro ranking 146 vs Marino 377
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFiona FerroEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average match games from both players' recent windows slightly exceeds 21.5, and competitive sets are likely.
- Marino last15 average match games 20.2 (303/15)
- Ferro last15 average match games 21.3 (319/15)
- Both players have similar games-won percentages around 50-56%
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ferro's better recent game-winning percentage and return performance support a narrow handicap cover.
- Ferro last15 games won 56.4% vs Marino 50.2%
- Ferro last15 return points won 47.0% vs Marino 42.4%
- Ferro 2026 hard record 5-3 vs Marino 2-4
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostFiona Ferro -1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The average set length for both players is near 9.5, making the over a coin-flip but supported by competitive recent matches.
- Marino last15 average set games 9.2 (303/33)
- Ferro last15 average set games 9.1 (319/35)
- Both players have close games-won percentages
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ferro's higher first-serve percentage and better recent set-winning rate suggest she is more likely to start strongly.
- Ferro last15 first set win rate implied by 62.9% sets won
- Marino last15 first set win rate implied by 48.5% sets won
- Ferro first serve in 71.7% vs Marino 51.4%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostFiona FerroEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Marino's strong ace rate alone nearly covers the line, and Ferro's occasional aces push the total over.
- Marino last15 aces per match 6.4
- Ferro last15 aces per match 0.6
- Combined expected aces ~7.0
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Marino's high double-fault rate is the main driver, and Ferro adds enough to make the over likely.
- Marino last15 double faults per match 3.6
- Ferro last15 double faults per match 1.3
- Combined expected double faults ~4.9
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Rebecca Marino

7W 8L

6-3 6-3#113Alina Charaeva

7-5 6-4#50Zeynep Sonmez

6-3 2-6 6-4#163Kayla Cross

6-2 6-2#407Kylie Collins

7-5 7-6(7)#261Mei Yamaguchi

6-2 7-5#290Julieta Pareja

6-4 6-4—Luciana Perry

6-2 6-2—Audrey Spencer

6-1 6-3#851Kira Matushkina

6-4 6-2#260Haruka Kaji

6-3 7-5#80Tatjana Maria

6-2 6-3#323Martina Trevisan

4-6 6-2 6-4#406Ana Sofia Sanchez

6-2 6-1#31Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-3 2-6 6-1#123Dominika Salkova

Fiona Ferro

9W 6L

5-7 7-5 6-4#238Barbora Palicova

7-5 6-2#303Eva Bennemann

6-1 6-4#311Tessa Johanna Brockmann

6-1 6-4#268Noemi Basiletti

6-1 6-3#446Sapfo Sakellaridi

6-0 4-6 7-6(6)#104Francesca Jones

6-2 6-3#116Lucia Bronzetti

6-2 6-0#300Mina Hodzic

6-4 6-3#214Erika Andreeva

6-2 6-3#332Yufei Ren

6-4 2-6 6-3#277Aurora Zantedeschi

6-3 6-1#178Greetje Minnen

7-6(3) 2-6 6-4#165Ekaterine Gorgodze

6-2 4-6 6-3#228Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

6-3 6-3#6Mirra Andreeva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RMRebecca MarinoMarino

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Fiona FerroFerroFF

Fiona Ferro carries the stronger recent form — Rebecca Marino's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In51.4%+20.3pp71.7%

1st Serve Won69.1%+8.1pp61.0%

2nd Serve Won49.4%+1.2pp48.2%

Aces / Match6.4+5.80.6

Double Faults / Match3.62.3 fewer1.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won42.4%+4.6pp47.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted44.6%+9.7pp54.3%

Break Pts Saved59.1%+2.2pp56.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.8%+1.5pp52.3%

Serve · 3–2

51.4%1st Serve In+20.3pp71.7%

69.1%1st Serve Won+8.1pp61.0%

49.4%2nd Serve Won+1.2pp48.2%

6.4Aces / Match+5.80.6

3.6Double Faults / Match2.3 fewer1.3

Return · 0–1

42.4%Return Pts Won+4.6pp47.0%

Pressure · 1–1

44.6%Break Pts Converted+9.7pp54.3%

59.1%Break Pts Saved+2.2pp56.9%

Points · 0–1

50.8%Total Pts Won+1.5pp52.3%