United StatesATP US OpenFinished

Predictions graded

Pol Martin Tiffon #209Spain0Tom Gentzsch #185Germany2

Sets 5-7 · 3-6Mon 24 Aug 2026, 21:40 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions4–267%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTom Gentzsch · 24 places

Pol Martin Tiffon

Spain

ITF lists clay as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high No. 197 on June 9, 2025.

Current ranking: #209
Peak ranking: #197 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Tom Gentzsch

Germany

Reached a career-high No. 185 on August 3, 2026. Two of his three Challenger finals have come on clay, but no reliable source explicitly identifies a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #185
Peak ranking: #185 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 15:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Tom Gentzsch is favored over Pol Martin Tiffon due to superior recent form, serve efficiency, and higher ranking.

The best betting angle is over 22.5 total games, with a 5.6-point edge over the implied probability. Gentzsch's strong first serve and Tiffon's ability to extend sets support the over.

Context

Gentzsch last 15 record: 12-3 (80%) vs Tiffon 9-6 (60%).
- Gentzsch has won his last five matches, all on clay, including wins over Jerome Kym and Zsombor Piros.
- Tiffon lost his most recent match by retirement (6-4 ret. vs Marko Topo on July 11).
Tiffon's most recent match on 2026-07-11 ended in retirement at 6-4 ret. against Marko Topo.
- No other recent retirements or withdrawals are listed in his last 15 matches.
- The retirement was over a month before this match, so the current impact is uncertain.
Gentzsch last 15 first-serve points won: 75.4% vs Tiffon 69.0%.
- Gentzsch averages 7.1 aces per match in his last 15, compared to Tiffon's 3.3.
- Gentzsch's career first-serve win percentage is 71%, while Tiffon's is 69%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Tom Gentzsch

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Gentzsch's superior recent form and serve efficiency give him a clear edge, but the odds imply a higher probability than the model estimate.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Tom Gentzsch

1.53fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Gentzsch's stronger first-serve performance in recent matches should help him take the opening set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Gentzsch's superior recent form, serve efficiency, and higher ranking give him a clear edge on hard court.
- Last 15 overall record: Gentzsch 12-3 (80%) vs Tiffon 9-6 (60%)
- Last 15 sets won: Gentzsch 71.1% vs Tiffon 60.6%
- Last 15 first serve points won: Gentzsch 75.4% vs Tiffon 69.0%
- Ranking: Gentzsch #145 vs Tiffon #209
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTom GentzschEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown the ability to extend sets, and their combined recent match lengths suggest a total above 21.5 games.
- Tiffon last 15 average games per match: 20.9 (166 games / 15 matches)
- Gentzsch last 15 average games per match: 25.1 (208 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have competitive recent matches with multiple tiebreaks
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tiffon's ability to stay competitive in games suggests he can cover a +3.5 game handicap even in a loss.
- Tiffon last 15 games won percentage: 52.9%
- Gentzsch last 15 games won percentage: 55.3%
- Tiffon has kept matches close against higher-ranked opponents
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonPol Martin Tiffon +3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Gentzsch's stronger first-serve performance in recent matches should help him take the opening set.
- Gentzsch first set win conversion career: 85% vs Tiffon 88%
- Gentzsch last 15 first serve points won: 75.4%
- Tiffon last 15 first serve points won: 69.0%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTom GentzschEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gentzsch's high ace rate combined with Tiffon's moderate ace count makes over 9.5 total aces plausible.
- Gentzsch last 15 aces per match: 7.1
- Tiffon last 15 aces per match: 3.3
- Combined average aces per match: 10.4
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gentzsch's high double fault rate is likely to push the combined total over 5.5.
- Gentzsch last 15 double faults per match: 4.3
- Tiffon last 15 double faults per match: 1.9
- Combined average double faults per match: 6.2
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Tom Gentzsch has been highly reliable when projected to win

Tom Gentzsch has fulfilled 7 of 9 recent win projections, a 78% success rate. His average estimated probability was 62.4%, with an expected 5.6 wins, so he outperformed expectations. The two misses both came as losses, with no draws or wins in those matches.

Recent evidence for Tom Gentzsch9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#186Tom Gentzsch1-2#883Max Dahlin

BetBugsTom Gentzsch to win·62%

Missed

30 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#186Tom Gentzsch1-2#883Max Dahlin

Tom Gentzsch to win

62%probability

Max Dahlin won

Missed

28 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#186Tom Gentzsch2-0#259Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

BetBugsTom Gentzsch to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#186Tom Gentzsch2-0#259Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Tom Gentzsch to win

62%probability

Tom Gentzsch won

Matched

21 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#302Dali Blanch1-2#212Tom Gentzsch

BetBugsTom Gentzsch to win·58%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#302Dali Blanch1-2#212Tom Gentzsch

Tom Gentzsch to win

58%probability

Tom Gentzsch won

Matched

17 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#212Tom Gentzsch2-1#244Max Houkes

BetBugsTom Gentzsch to win·58%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#212Tom Gentzsch2-1#244Max Houkes

Tom Gentzsch to win

58%probability

Tom Gentzsch won

Matched

15 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#212Tom Gentzsch2-0#696Pieter De Lange

BetBugsTom Gentzsch to win·72%

Matched

15 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#212Tom Gentzsch2-0#696Pieter De Lange

Tom Gentzsch to win

72%probability

Tom Gentzsch won

Matched

Pol Martin Tiffon

9W 6L

6-4 ret.#338Marko Topo

6-4 6-2#130Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-4 6-4#230Gilles Arnaud Bailly

2-6 6-2 7-6(5)#269Chun Hsin Tseng

6-1 2-6 7-6(2)#150Joel Schwaerzler

6-4 6-4#539Pietro Orlando Fellin

6-2 3-6 7-6(5)#274Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-2 6-3#815Yannick Theodor Alexandrescou

7-5 6-1#241Jay Clarke

6-2 6-2#289Charles Broom

6-4 6-4#575Lukas Pokorny

6-2 6-3—Rayen Hermassi

6-3 6-4#33Zizou Bergs

7-6(7) 6-4#218Kimmer Coppejans

6-4 3-6 6-3#41Alex Michelsen

Tom Gentzsch

12W 3L

6-4 7-6(4)#179Jerome Kym

6-4 6-4#121Zsombor Piros

6-3 7-6(5)#208Henri Squire

6-1 1-6 6-1#269Chun Hsin Tseng

6-3 6-7(5) 6-4#274Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-4 3-6 7-6(8)#880Max Dahlin

6-3 6-3#263Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-2 6-7(5) 6-3#169Gauthier Onclin

4-6 6-2 6-0#250Andrej Nedic

6-7(3) 7-5 6-4#313Dali Blanch

6-4 4-6 6-0#215Guy Den Ouden

7-5 6-4#347Jan Kumstat

3-6 7-6(4) 6-4#242Max Houkes

6-3 6-2#657Pieter De Lange

7-5 6-4#435Mika Petkovic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PTPol Martin TiffonTiffon

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Tom GentzschGentzschTG

Tom Gentzsch carries the stronger recent form — Pol Martin Tiffon's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In62.0%+1.5pp63.5%

1st Serve Won69.0%+6.4pp75.4%

2nd Serve Won53.5%+6.8pp46.7%

Aces / Match3.3+3.87.1

Double Faults / Match1.92.4 fewer4.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won41.2%—40.9%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted39.1%+4.2pp43.3%

Break Pts Saved57.7%—57.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.3%+1.1pp52.4%

Serve · 2–3

62.0%1st Serve In+1.5pp63.5%

69.0%1st Serve Won+6.4pp75.4%

53.5%2nd Serve Won+6.8pp46.7%

3.3Aces / Match+3.87.1

1.9Double Faults / Match2.4 fewer4.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

41.2%Return Pts Won—40.9%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

39.1%Break Pts Converted+4.2pp43.3%

57.7%Break Pts Saved—57.5%

Points · 0–1

51.3%Total Pts Won+1.1pp52.4%

Pol Martin Tiffon

Tom Gentzsch

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 22.5

Tom Gentzsch

Tom Gentzsch

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 2 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Pol Martin Tiffon

Tom Gentzsch

Stat Battle