Mia Ristic #219Serbia22 – 1Ayana Akli #265United States1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.05

The read

Ristic's superior recent form and return numbers are offset by Akli's hard-court experience and surface fit, making this a close match with a slight edge to Ristic based on overall momentum.

• Ristic last 15 overall record 13-2 (86.7%), all on clay; Akli last 15 overall 10-5 (66.7%), mostly hard
• Ristic last 15 return points won 49.4% vs Akli 46.1%; Ristic break points converted 51.7% vs Akli 46.5%
• Ristic career clay wins 142 vs Akli 29; but this match is on hard, where Akli has 63 career wins vs Ristic 14
• Akli last 15 on hard record 10-4 (71.4%), with wins over top-200 players; Ristic has no hard-court matches in last 15

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Both players' recent match averages and competitive point profiles suggest a match likely to exceed 21.5 total games.

• Ristic last 15 average games per match 21.6 (324 games / 15 matches)
• Akli last 15 average games per match 20.0 (300 games / 15 matches)
• Ristic last 15 average duration 115.2 minutes; Akli 110.7 minutes
• Both players have similar total points won percentages (Ristic 54.3%, Akli 52.0%)

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The players' recent set game averages and balanced serve numbers point to a competitive first set likely to go over 9.5 games.

• Ristic last 15 average games per set 9.3 (324 games / 35 sets)
• Akli last 15 average games per set 9.4 (300 games / 32 sets)
• Both players have similar first serve points won percentages (Ristic 63.1%, Akli 62.6%)

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Ristic's higher recent set win percentage and comparable first-serve effectiveness give her a slight edge in the opening set.

• Ristic first set win conversion career 85% vs Akli 87%
• Ristic last 15 sets won 80% vs Akli 65.6%
• Ristic last 15 first serve points won 63.1% vs Akli 62.6%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Akli's high double fault rate combined with Ristic's low rate still yields a combined average above 3.5, making the over a reasonable play.

• Akli last 15 double faults per match 2.8 (42 double faults / 15 matches)
• Ristic last 15 double faults per match 0.8 (12 double faults / 15 matches)
• Combined average double faults per match approximately 3.6

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The combined ace rates of both players suggest a total over 2.5 aces is a coin-flip proposition.

• Ristic last 15 aces per match 1.5 (23 aces / 15 matches)
• Akli last 15 aces per match 1.4 (19 aces / 14 matches tracked)
• Combined average aces per match approximately 2.9