JamaicaKingston - JamaicaFinished

Predictions graded

Edward Winter #348Australia0Andres Andrade #251Ecuador2

Sets 4-6 · 6-7Mon 24 Aug 2026, 19:20 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–260%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndres Andrade · 97 places

Edward Winter

Australia

Current and career-high ranking No. 348, with the peak recorded in August 2026. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface; he plays right-handed with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #348
Peak ranking: #348 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Andres Andrade

Ecuador

A 27-year-old Ecuadorian right-hander whose ITF profile lists hard as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 210 on 2026-05-18 and is currently ranked No. 251.

Current ranking: #251
Peak ranking: #210 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 16:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Edward Winter holds a moderate edge over Andres Andrade due to better recent form and break-point saving, with value on Winter to win at 2.20 (12.5-point edge).

The match is likely to be competitive, favoring over 21.5 total games at 1.80 (6.4-point edge). Winter's familiarity with Kingston courts adds confidence, but Andrade's strong serve keeps it close.

Context

Winter beat Aidan Kim 6-3 6-2 at Kingston 1 on 17 August.
- Andrade has no recent matches at Kingston in the last 15-match window.
Andrade wins 67.4% of first-serve points vs Winter's 65.5%.
- Andrade averages 4.1 double faults per match vs Winter's 1.9.
- Andrade's first-serve percentage is 58.6% vs Winter's 66%.
Winter saves 67.5% of break points vs Andrade's 45.7%.
- Both players have similar return points won percentages (Winter 42.5%, Andrade 40.9%).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Winter's superior recent form and stronger break-point saving on hard courts give him a moderate edge in this Bo3 match.
- Last 15 overall record: Winter 8-7 (53.3%) vs Andrade 5-10 (33.3%)
- Last 15 hard-court record: Winter 8-7 (53.3%) vs Andrade 4-5 (44.4%)
- Last 15 break points saved: Winter 67.5% vs Andrade 45.7%
- Recent form last 5: Winter 3-2 vs Andrade 2-3
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEdward WinterEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 21 games, and their close point-winning percentages suggest a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Winter last 15 average games per match: 21.2 (318 games / 15 matches)
- Andrade last 15 average games per match: 23.7 (356 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have similar total points won percentages (Winter 51.9%, Andrade 49.5%)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players' first sets average around 10 games, and their serve strengths suggest a tight opening set likely to go over 9.5 games.
- Winter last 15 first set average games: 9.7 (based on 15 matches with 146 first-set games)
- Andrade last 15 first set average games: 10.1 (based on 15 matches with 151 first-set games)
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages (Winter 65.5%, Andrade 67.4%)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Winter's slightly better return game and comparable first-set conversion support a first-set win, though Andrade's strong first serve keeps it close.
- Winter first set win conversion career: 84% vs Andrade 88%
- Winter last 15 first serve points won: 65.5% vs Andrade 67.4%
- Winter last 15 return points won: 42.5% vs Andrade 40.9%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostEdward WinterEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andrade's high double fault rate (4.1 per match) combined with Winter's 1.9 gives a combined expectation above 5.5, supporting the over.
- Winter last 15 double faults per match: 1.9
- Andrade last 15 double faults per match: 4.1
- Combined expected double faults per match: 6.0
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Edward Winter

8W 7L

6-4 6-2#178Gonzalo Bueno

6-1 6-1—John Chin

6-3 6-2#574Aidan Kim

6-1 6-1—Steven Christie

6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#164Bernard Tomic

6-2 6-2#552Gavin Young

6-3 7-6(4)—Dominick Mosejczuk

6-3 6-4#74Jenson Brooksby

6-1 6-4#214Moise Kouame

7-5 6-2#152Soon-Woo Kwon

3-6 6-4 6-2#838Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

2-6 6-3 6-2#289Charles Broom

7-6(2) 4-6 6-1—Mikael Arseneault

4-6 6-3 6-0#661Joshua Sheehy

6-3 7-6(2)#638Strong Kirchheimer

Andres Andrade

5W 10L

3-6 6-3 6-2#154Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

6-2 6-3#216Liam Draxl

4-6 7-5 7-6(2)#177Jack Pinnington Jones

6-3 6-3#169Gauthier Onclin

6-3 6-7(5) 7-5#150Joel Schwaerzler

6-3 6-4#210Andre Ilagan

6-2 6-3#219Braden Shick

7-5 3-6 6-1#128Alexei Popyrin

7-6(4) 6-1#234Maks Kasnikowski

6-3 4-6 6-3#200Colton Smith

6-2 1-6 7-5—Ammar Elamin

7-5 7-5#535Timo Legout

7-6(4) 6-4#77Jan Choinski

6-4 6-4#173Marco Cecchinato

7-5 6-2#172Elmer Moller

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EWEdward WinterWinter

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Andres AndradeAndradeAA

Edward Winter carries the stronger recent form — Andres Andrade's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In66.0%+7.4pp58.6%

1st Serve Won65.5%+1.9pp67.4%

2nd Serve Won51.1%+4.6pp46.5%

Aces / Match1.5+1.53.0

Double Faults / Match1.92.2 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.5%+1.6pp40.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted43.2%+1.3pp44.5%

Break Pts Saved67.5%+21.8pp45.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.9%+2.4pp49.5%

Serve · 3–2

66.0%1st Serve In+7.4pp58.6%

65.5%1st Serve Won+1.9pp67.4%

51.1%2nd Serve Won+4.6pp46.5%

1.5Aces / Match+1.53.0

1.9Double Faults / Match2.2 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

42.5%Return Pts Won+1.6pp40.9%

Pressure · 1–1

43.2%Break Pts Converted+1.3pp44.5%

67.5%Break Pts Saved+21.8pp45.7%

Points · 1–0

51.9%Total Pts Won+2.4pp49.5%