United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Michael Geerts #339Belgium1Lucas Poullain #369France2

Sets 7-6 · 3-6 · 5-7Thu 20 Aug 2026, 13:50 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions4–180%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMichael Geerts · 30 places

Michael Geerts

Belgium

Reached a career-high No. 212 on 3 April 2023. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #339
Peak ranking: #212 · 2023
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Lucas Poullain

France

French right-hander, born 5 December 1995. Public profile sources list a singles career high of No. 244; no reliable preferred-surface statement was found.

Current ranking: #369
Peak ranking: #244
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 22:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Lucas Poullain holds a clear edge over Michael Geerts on hard courts, driven by a stronger return game and better recent form.

Back Poullain to win the match at 1.73, and consider the over 9.5 games in the first set. Geerts' serve could keep it close, but Poullain's consistency should prevail.

Context

Poullain's last 15 hard-court record is 8-4 (66.7%), compared to Geerts' 3-5 (37.5%).
- Poullain has won his last 5 hard-court matches, including wins over Dan Added and Viktor Durasovic.
- Geerts has lost 3 of his last 4 hard-court matches, with two retirements in that span.
Poullain's return points won percentage is 43.7% in his last 15 matches.
- Geerts' return points won percentage is 36.4% in his last 15 matches.
- Poullain also converts break points at a higher rate (49.2% vs 46.5%).
Geerts wins 69.8% of first-serve points overall, higher than Poullain's 65%.
- Geerts averages 5.1 aces per hard-court match, compared to Poullain's 2.6.
- Geerts averages 3.4 double faults per hard-court match, while Poullain averages only 1.1.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Poullain's stronger recent hard-court form and return game give him a clear edge over Geerts, whose hard-court results have been poor.
- Poullain last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Geerts 7-8 (46.7%)
- Poullain hard-court last 12 record 8-4 (66.7%) vs Geerts hard-court last 8 record 3-5 (37.5%)
- Poullain return points won 43.7% vs Geerts 36.4% overall last 15
- Poullain break points saved 63.2% vs Geerts 55.8% overall last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLucas PoullainEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent match totals and Geerts' hard-court game counts support a competitive match exceeding 21.5 games.
- Geerts last 15 average games per match 22.2 (333 games / 15 matches)
- Poullain last 15 average games per match 20.5 (308 games / 15 matches)
- Geerts hard-court last 8 average games per match 23.5 (188 games / 8 matches)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent first-set game averages for both players hover near 9.5, with Geerts' hard-court sets trending longer.
- Geerts last 15 first set average 9.7 games (145 games / 15 matches)
- Poullain last 15 first set average 9.3 games (139 games / 15 matches)
- Geerts hard-court last 8 first set average 10.1 games (81 games / 8 matches)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Poullain's superior return game and consistent first-set performance make him the likely early leader.
- Poullain first set win conversion career 88% vs Geerts 85%
- Poullain last 15 first serve points won 65% vs Geerts 69.8%
- Poullain last 15 return points won 43.7% vs Geerts 36.4%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLucas PoullainEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Poullain's excellent double-fault discipline keeps the combined total below the line despite Geerts' higher rate.
- Geerts last 15 double faults per match 2.7, hard-court 3.4
- Poullain last 15 double faults per match 0.9, hard-court 1.1
- Combined expected double faults around 4.0 based on recent hard-court rates
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Geerts' higher ace rate on hard courts pushes the combined total toward the over, though Poullain's low ace count adds uncertainty.
- Geerts last 15 aces per match 4.6, hard-court 5.1
- Poullain last 15 aces per match 2.2, hard-court 2.6
- Combined expected aces around 7.0 based on recent hard-court rates
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-0 4-0 ret.Michael Geerts#348vLucas Poullain#369Mar 4, 2021

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Michael Geerts

7W 8L

4-6 6-4 6-4#512Radu Albot 6-3 7-6(6)—Billy Blaydes

2-6 6-2 6-4—Lars Goran Verwerft

6-4 6-4#365Geoffrey Blancaneaux

7-5 6-3#864Nicolas Robert

6-3 6-2#702Martin Van Der Meerschen

6-7(9) 6-2 6-2#457Viktor Durasovic

6-1 6-4#244Yi Zhou

6-2 6-2#657Pieter De Lange

7-6(8) 2-1 ret.#886Iiro Vasa

6-2 6-7(6) 6-2#804Dinko Dinev

7-6(7) 6-7(3) 7-6(3)#428Niels Visker

6-4 6-4#391Ioannis Xilas

6-1 ret.#429Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-7(7) 6-2 2-1 ret.—Nikita Ianin

Lucas Poullain

9W 6L

6-4 6-2#457Viktor Durasovic 6-0 7-6(5)#248Max Basing

5-7 6-2 6-3#267Ilia Simakin

6-1 6-0#341Gijs Brouwer

6-7(3) 6-1 6-4#495Kenta Miyoshi

7-5 7-5#557Alexandr Binda

6-4 6-1#223Dan Added

7-5 2-6 6-2#223Dan Added

7-5 6-3#750Isaac Becroft

7-6(5) 6-2#408Vadym Ursu

7-6(6) 6-2#893Mathieu Scaglia

6-1 6-2#580Paul Inchauspe

7-5 6-2#230Gilles Arnaud Bailly

6-4 6-3#353Raphael Perot

6-1 6-0#739Loann Massard

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MGMichael GeertsGeerts

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Lucas PoullainPoullainLP

Lucas Poullain carries the stronger recent form — Michael Geerts's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In58.3%+7.3pp65.6%

1st Serve Won69.8%+4.8pp65.0%

2nd Serve Won55.2%+4.5pp50.7%

Aces / Match4.6+2.42.2

Double Faults / Match2.71.8 fewer0.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.4%+7.3pp43.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted46.5%+2.7pp49.2%

Break Pts Saved55.8%+7.4pp63.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.8%+2.1pp51.9%

Serve · 3–2

58.3%1st Serve In+7.3pp65.6%

69.8%1st Serve Won+4.8pp65.0%

55.2%2nd Serve Won+4.5pp50.7%

4.6Aces / Match+2.42.2

2.7Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer0.9

Return · 0–1

36.4%Return Pts Won+7.3pp43.7%

Pressure · 0–2

46.5%Break Pts Converted+2.7pp49.2%

55.8%Break Pts Saved+7.4pp63.2%

Points · 0–1

49.8%Total Pts Won+2.1pp51.9%