Ryan Nijboer #508Netherlands00 – 2Tommaso Compagnucci #364Italy2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00

The read

Nijboer's stronger recent clay-court numbers, especially return and break-point saving, give him a slight edge in a match with no H2H history.

• Last 15 on clay: Nijboer 11-4 record, 57.9% games won vs Compagnucci 10-5, 53.8% games won
• Nijboer return points won 43.9% vs Compagnucci 41.6% in last 15
• Nijboer break points saved 63.5% vs Compagnucci 49.3% in last 15
• Nijboer ranking 508 vs Compagnucci 364, but recent form favors Nijboer

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The combined recent match game averages and balanced stats point to a match likely exceeding 21.5 total games.

• Nijboer last 15 average 22.0 games per match (191 games / 15 matches)
• Compagnucci last 15 average 20.1 games per match (162 games / 15 matches)
• Both players have similar serve/return profiles, suggesting competitive sets

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Recent first-set game averages for both players are near the 9.5 line, making Over slightly more likely.

• Nijboer last 15 first set average 9.4 games (141 games / 15 matches)
• Compagnucci last 15 first set average 9.3 games (139 games / 15 matches)
• Both players have similar first-set competitiveness

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Nijboer's overall point-winning edge in recent matches suggests he is slightly more likely to take the opening set.

• Nijboer first set win conversion career 83% vs Compagnucci 92%
• Nijboer last 15 first serve points won 68.4% vs Compagnucci 69.3%
• Nijboer last 15 total points won 53.3% vs Compagnucci 51.3%