SwitzerlandSion - SwitzerlandFinished

Predictions graded

Mika Brunold #423Switzerland2Calvin Hemery #326France1

Sets 6-3 · 3-6 · 6-3Wed 19 Aug 2026, 12:20 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions5–183%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCalvin Hemery · 97 places

Mika Brunold

Switzerland

Swiss player born 2 October 2004. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; his career-high ATP singles ranking was No. 289 in August 2025.

Current ranking: #423
Peak ranking: #289 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Calvin Hemery

France

Born 28 January 1995; right-handed and 191 cm. His career-high singles ranking was No. 116 in April 2018; ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #326
Peak ranking: #116 · 2018
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 22:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Brunold has a narrow edge over Hemery based on recent clay form and return stats, but the match is expected to be close.

The best betting angle is over 21.5 total games, with a small value on Brunold to win at 1.85.

Context

Brunold last 15 on clay: 8-7 record, 50.4% total points won, 40.2% return points won.
- Hemery last 15 on clay: 7-5 record, 50.1% total points won, 36.0% return points won.
- Brunold beat Patrick Zahraj 7-6(4) 6-1 in the previous round.
- Hemery beat Kai Wehnelt (rank 625) 6-2 3-6 7-5 in the previous round.
Hemery averages 4.4 aces per match in last 15, Brunold averages 2.1.
- Hemery averages 3.3 double faults per match, Brunold averages 1.9.
- Hemery wins 70.1% of first-serve points, Brunold wins 64.6%.
- Hemery saves 66.1% of break points, Brunold saves 56.7%.
Brunold has played 7 three-set matches in his last 15.
- Hemery has played 6 three-set matches in his last 15.
- Their only previous meeting in 2025 went to three sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Brunold's slightly better recent clay return numbers and fresher straight-set win give him a narrow edge over Hemery, whose recent form is more inconsistent.
- Brunold last 15 on clay: 8-7 record, 50.4% total points won, 40.2% return points won
- Hemery last 15 on clay: 7-5 record, 50.1% total points won, 36.0% return points won
- Brunold has won 5 of last 7 matches, including a straight-set win over Patrick Zahraj yesterday
- Hemery needed three sets to beat Kai Wehnelt (rank 625) yesterday
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMika BrunoldEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches and the only H2H went three sets, suggesting a close contest likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Brunold last 15 clay matches average 21.1 games per match
- Hemery last 15 clay matches average 22.5 games per match
- H2H match in 2025 went to three sets with 23 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have a high rate of three-set matches in recent form, making a deciding set likely.
- Brunold last 15: 7 of 15 matches went three sets
- Hemery last 15: 6 of 15 matches went three sets
- H2H match went three sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brunold's strong first-set conversion and recent pattern of starting well support a slight lean in the opening set.
- Brunold first set win conversion career: 85%
- Hemery first set win conversion career: 87%
- Brunold won first set in 4 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMika BrunoldEstimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-2 0-6 6-3Mika Brunold#423vCalvin Hemery#326Jul 3, 2025

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Mika Brunold

8W 7L

7-6(4) 6-1#413Patrick Zahraj

6-3 6-3#328Enrico Dalla Valle

6-1 6-2—Alex De Gabriele

6-4 6-3#252Harold Mayot

6-1 6-0#302Miguel Damas

6-2 3-6 6-3#264Mili Poljicak

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-4#395Georgii Kravchenko

4-6 6-2 6-3#508Ryan Nijboer

6-3 6-2#499Miguel Tobon

6-2 3-6 6-2#245Yu Hsiou Hsu

7-6(10) 7-6(4)#427Massimo Giunta

7-6(2) 6-3#409Laurent Lokoli

5-3 ret.#791Kasra Rahmani

4-6 6-3 6-3#740Daniele Rapagnetta

6-3 6-1#302Miguel Damas

Calvin Hemery

8W 7L

6-2 3-6 7-5#625Kai Wehnelt

6-4 6-3#174Federico Cina

7-6(2) 2-6 6-3#330Daniel Michalski

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#327Marvin Moeller

1-2 ret.#334Eliakim Coulibaly

6-3 6-1#462Carlo Alberto Caniato

6-2 6-2#357Anton Matusevich

3-6 6-1 3-0 ret.#389Lucio Ratti

6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(5)#240Alejandro Moro Canas

3-6 6-3 7-5#725Khololwam Montsi

7-6(5) 6-1#705Orel Kimhi

6-4 7-6(2)#725Khololwam Montsi

6-4 6-4#263Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

7-5 3-6 7-6(2)#247Florent Bax

6-2 2-6 6-1#354Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMika BrunoldBrunold

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Calvin HemeryHemeryCH

Mika Brunold carries the stronger recent form — Calvin Hemery's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In68.8%+4.8pp64.0%

1st Serve Won64.6%+5.5pp70.1%

2nd Serve Won51.1%+1.7pp49.4%

Aces / Match2.1+2.34.4

Double Faults / Match1.91.4 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.2%+3.2pp37.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.7%+5.2pp37.5%

Break Pts Saved56.7%+9.4pp66.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.4%—50.1%

Serve · 3–2

68.8%1st Serve In+4.8pp64.0%

64.6%1st Serve Won+5.5pp70.1%

51.1%2nd Serve Won+1.7pp49.4%

2.1Aces / Match+2.34.4

1.9Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

40.2%Return Pts Won+3.2pp37.0%

Pressure · 1–1

42.7%Break Pts Converted+5.2pp37.5%

56.7%Break Pts Saved+9.4pp66.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.4%Total Pts Won—50.1%