Mika Brunold #423Switzerland22 – 0Patrick Zahraj #413Germany0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Brunold's stronger recent form and better return/break conversion on clay give him a moderate edge over Zahraj, who has struggled with consistency and double faults.

• Brunold last15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%) vs Zahraj 5-10 (33.3%)
• Brunold last15 clay record 8-7 (53.3%) vs Zahraj clay 5-6 (45.5%)
• Brunold last15 return points won 39.7% vs Zahraj 38.6%
• Brunold last15 break point conversion 46.4% vs Zahraj 35.9%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Both players have been involved in long matches recently, and Zahraj's high double fault count and inconsistent serve often extend games, supporting a higher total.

• Brunold last15 average 21.6 games per match (324 games / 15 matches)
• Zahraj last15 average 26.4 games per match (396 games / 15 matches)
• Zahraj last15 clay average 27.4 games per match (301 games / 11 matches)
• Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players tend to have competitive first sets, with Zahraj's serve and Brunold's return often leading to extended games.

• Zahraj last15 first set average 10.3 games (based on 15 matches with 155 games in first sets)
• Brunold last15 first set average 9.7 games (based on 15 matches with 146 games in first sets)
• Zahraj has played 5 tiebreaks in last 15 matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Zahraj's ability to win games even in losses, especially on clay, makes the +3.5 handicap a reasonable bet.

• Zahraj last15 average games won per match 12.5 (187/15)
• Brunold last15 average games won per match 10.7 (161/15)
• Zahraj clay last15 average games won per match 13.7 (151/11)

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Brunold's higher first serve percentage and solid return game give him a slight edge in the opening set, though Zahraj's first serve effectiveness keeps it close.

• Brunold career first set win conversion 85% vs Zahraj 86%
• Brunold last15 first serve points won 63.9% vs Zahraj 69.8%
• Zahraj last15 first serve in 61.2% vs Brunold 67.4%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Zahraj's high double fault rate, especially on clay, combined with Brunold's moderate count, makes the over on total double faults likely.

• Zahraj last15 double faults per match 5.7
• Brunold last15 double faults per match 1.9
• Zahraj clay last15 double faults per match 4.9
• Combined average double faults per match 7.6

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Zahraj's strong serve generates a high number of aces, and combined with Brunold's moderate ace count, the total is likely to exceed 5.5.

• Zahraj last15 aces per match 3.9, Brunold 1.9
• Zahraj clay last15 aces per match 4.2
• Combined average aces per match 5.8

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have a history of close sets and tiebreaks, making it likely that at least one set will go to a tiebreak.

• Zahraj last15: 5 tiebreaks in 15 matches (33.3%)
• Brunold last15: 4 tiebreaks in 15 matches (26.7%)
• Combined probability of at least one tiebreak approximately 50%