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Predictions graded

Felipe Meligeni Alves #567Brazil2Luka Pavlovic #207France0

Sets 7-6 · 7-6Mon 17 Aug 2026, 21:20 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions7–0100%

Edges4–180%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLuka Pavlovic · 360 places

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Brazil

Brazilian right-hander; career-high ATP singles ranking No. 117 came in April 2025. His recorded career match volume is heavily concentrated on clay.

Current ranking: #567
Peak ranking: #117 · 2025
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Luka Pavlovic

France

French right-hander; reached career-high ATP singles No. 184 in July 2025. He qualified for his first Grand Slam main draw at Roland Garros in May 2026.

Current ranking: #207
Peak ranking: #184 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Aug 2026, 15:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Felipe Meligeni Alves is in dominant clay-court form (13-2 last 15) and holds a straight-set H2H win over Luka Pavlovic, who struggles on clay (2-5 last 7).

Back Meligeni Alves to win the match and consider the 2-0 set betting, while avoiding Pavlovic in the first set.

Context

Last 15 overall record: 13-2 (86.7%), with 10 consecutive wins on clay in July-August 2026.
- Last 15 clay record: 13-2, games won 59.6%, return points won 42.4%.
- Recent wins include straight-set victories over players ranked 262 and 292.
Last 15 clay record: 2-5 (28.6%), games won 44.7%.
- Clay return points won: 32.0% compared to 42.4% for Meligeni Alves.
- First-serve percentage on clay is only 52.9%, giving opponents more chances.
H2H: Meligeni Alves won 6-3 6-3 on clay in April 2025.
- Meligeni Alves won 85% of first-serve points in that match.
- Pavlovic hit 10 aces but also 7 double faults, showing inconsistency.
Last 15 aces per match: 7.2, but first-serve in: 55.2%.
- On clay, first-serve in drops to 52.9%.
- Double faults per match: 3.9 overall, 3.9 on clay.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Meligeni Alves has a dominant recent clay form and a direct H2H win, while Pavlovic struggles on clay with poor return numbers.
- Last 15 overall record: 13-2 (86.7%), with 10 consecutive wins on clay in July-August 2026.
- Last 15 clay record: 13-2, games won 59.6%, return points won 42.4%.
- H2H: Meligeni Alves won 6-3 6-3 on clay in April 2025, with 85% first-serve points won.
- Pavlovic last 15 clay record: 2-5 (28.6%), return points won 32.0%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFelipe Meligeni AlvesEstimated chance72%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 22 games, and Pavlovic's serve can keep sets close, pushing the total over 20.5.
- Meligeni Alves last 15 average games per match: 22.1 (332 games / 15 matches).
- Pavlovic last 15 average games per match: 22.7 (340 games / 15 matches).
- Both players have competitive recent matches with multiple three-setters.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Meligeni Alves' superior clay game-winning percentage and H2H dominance support a handicap cover.
- Meligeni Alves last 15 games won percentage: 59.6%.
- Pavlovic last 15 clay games won percentage: 44.7%.
- H2H margin: Meligeni Alves won 12 games to 6.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFelipe Meligeni Alves -3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Meligeni Alves' strong recent form and H2H dominance suggest he is likely to start fast and take the opening set.
- Meligeni Alves first-set win conversion career: 84%.
- Pavlovic first-set win conversion career: 87%, but recent clay first-set performance is weak.
- Meligeni Alves last 15 first-serve points won: 70.8% vs Pavlovic 70.7% on clay.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFelipe Meligeni AlvesEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.80
The read
Meligeni Alves' dominance on clay and Pavlovic's poor clay form make a straight-set victory likely.
- Meligeni Alves won 10 of last 15 matches in straight sets.
- Pavlovic lost 5 of last 7 clay matches in straight sets.
- H2H was a straight-set win for Meligeni Alves.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonFelipe Meligeni Alves 2-0Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pavlovic's high ace rate and Meligeni Alves' moderate ace count make over 9.5 total aces likely.
- Pavlovic last 15 aces per match: 7.2, with 10 aces in the H2H match.
- Meligeni Alves last 15 aces per match: 4.3.
- Combined expected aces: 11.5 per match based on recent averages.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pavlovic's high double fault rate alone nearly covers the line, and Meligeni Alves adds a small contribution.
- Pavlovic last 15 double faults per match: 3.9.
- Meligeni Alves last 15 double faults per match: 1.0.
- Combined expected double faults: 4.9 per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance58%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pavlovic's poor recent clay form and H2H loss make him a risky favorite in set 1.

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-3 6-3Felipe Meligeni Alves#567vLuka Pavlovic#207Apr 13, 2025

1 total meetings

Felipe Meligeni Alves

13W 2L

6-3 7-5#528Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

3-6 6-2 6-3#645Maximo Zeitune

6-4 5-7 6-4#537Joao Eduardo Schiessl

7-6(10) 6-4#900Enzo Kohlmann De Freitas

6-4 6-4#463Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

6-4 6-3#528Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

7-5 6-4#820Lucas Andrade Da Silva

6-3 6-0#262Matias Soto

3-6 7-6(2) 6-3#896Bastian Malla

6-2 6-1#537Joao Eduardo Schiessl

4-6 6-4 7-6(0)#820Lucas Andrade Da Silva

6-4 6-3#292Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-1 6-4#1664Brandon Perez

6-1 6-1#1367Andres Urrea

7-6(5) 7-5#340Hernan Casanova

Luka Pavlovic

8W 7L

6-1 7-5#123Vilius Gaubas

6-4 3-6 6-1#286Matteo Martineau

6-2 7-6(3)#198Keegan Smith

6-1 6-2#298Mert Alkaya

6-4 7-6(6)#244Yi Zhou

3-6 6-1 6-2#556Takuya Kumasaka

7-6(6) 6-2#282Yanki Erel

6-3 7-6(3)#111Titouan Droguet

2-6 6-3 6-4#231Frederico Ferreira Silva

4-6 6-2 7-6(5)#387Dimitar Kuzmanov

7-6(2) 6-3#290Akira Santillan

6-4 6-4#79Jaime Faria

6-4 6-4#159Mark Lajal

7-6(3) 6-2#272Daniel Elahi Galan

6-3 4-6 6-3#217Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FAFelipe Meligeni AlvesAlves

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Luka PavlovicPavlovicLP

Felipe Meligeni Alves carries the stronger recent form — Luka Pavlovic's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In69.1%+13.9pp55.2%

1st Serve Won70.8%+4.2pp75.0%

2nd Serve Won55.0%+1.4pp53.6%

Aces / Match4.3+2.97.2

Double Faults / Match1.02.9 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.4%+8.1pp34.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted50.5%+15.7pp34.8%

Break Pts Saved77.2%+7.9pp69.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.2%+4.2pp50.0%

Serve · 3–2

69.1%1st Serve In+13.9pp55.2%

70.8%1st Serve Won+4.2pp75.0%

55.0%2nd Serve Won+1.4pp53.6%

4.3Aces / Match+2.97.2

1.0Double Faults / Match2.9 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

42.4%Return Pts Won+8.1pp34.3%

Pressure · 2–0

50.5%Break Pts Converted+15.7pp34.8%

77.2%Break Pts Saved+7.9pp69.3%

Points · 1–0

54.2%Total Pts Won+4.2pp50.0%