United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Anton Shepp #498New Zealand0Mark CebanUnited Kingdom2

Sets 1-6 · 3-6Mon 17 Aug 2026, 15:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions0–70%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Anton Shepp

New Zealand

New Zealand player born 30 October 2002. ITF listed a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 494 on 20 July 2026; available public sources do not establish a stated preferred surface.

Current ranking: #498
Peak ranking: #494 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Mark Ceban

United Kingdom

British player, age 17. He received a Wimbledon qualifying wild card in June 2026; reliable public sources in the requested search did not establish a current ranking, career-high ranking, height, or stated preferred surface.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 15:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Anton Shepp is favored over Mark Ceban based on ranking and career record, but the odds overstate his edge.

Ceban's recent hard-court form and Shepp's first-set struggles suggest a closer match than the market implies. Best angles are over total games and aces, while avoiding short prices on Shepp in set 1 and straight-sets markets.

Context

Shepp lost to Evan Zhu (rank 600) 6-3 3-6 6-3 on 27 July 2026.
- Shepp lost to Daniel Milavsky (rank 310) 6-3 6-1 on 20 July 2026.
- Both losses came on hard courts, the same surface as this match.
Ceban's last15 hard-court record is 6-4 (60%).
- He won four consecutive hard-court matches in early August 2026 before losing to Lui Maxted.
- His overall last15 record is 6-9 (40%), dragged down by grass and indoor hard losses.
Shepp's last15 first-set record is 8-7 (53.3%).
- Ceban won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches (80%).
- Shepp's career first-set win conversion is 92%, but that does not guarantee a high first-set win rate.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Anton Shepp

1.36fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Shepp's superior ranking and career win percentage support his favorite status, but the odds overstate his edge relative to the model estimate.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Anton Shepp

1.44fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Shepp's strong first-serve numbers and high career first-set conversion rate support a first-set win, but the odds imply a higher probability than the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Shepp's superior overall record, ranking, and career win percentage give him a clear edge despite Ceban's recent hard-court form.
- Shepp last15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Ceban 6-9 (40%)
- Shepp career win% 68.8% vs Ceban 30%
- Shepp ranking 498 vs Ceban unranked
- Shepp last15 hard record 7-4 (63.6%) vs Ceban 6-4 (60%)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAnton SheppEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown competitive matches with three-set potential, supporting a higher total games line.
- Shepp last15 average 21.3 games per match
- Ceban last15 average 20.6 games per match
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets have been competitive, with both players averaging near the over line.
- Shepp last15 set1 average 9.4 games
- Ceban last15 set1 average 9.3 games
- Both players have close first sets in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Shepp's strong first-serve performance and high first-set conversion rate make him likely to start well.
- Shepp first set win conversion 92% career
- Shepp last15 first serve points won 71.4% vs Ceban 63%
- Shepp last15 hard first serve points won 71.1%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAnton SheppEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shepp's strong ace count combined with Ceban's moderate serving should push total aces over the line.
- Shepp last15 aces per match 5.7
- Ceban last15 aces per match 2.2
- Combined average 7.9 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low double fault rates, suggesting a lower total.
- Shepp last15 double faults per match 2.9
- Ceban last15 double faults per match 2.2
- Combined average 5.1 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance52%

Anton Shepp

9W 6L

6-3 3-6 6-3#600Evan Zhu

6-3 6-1#310Daniel Milavsky

6-4 3-6 6-2—Alexander Rozin

7-5 7-6(5)#93Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-4 2-6 6-3#392Jack Kennedy

6-3 6-1#531Niels Mcdonald

6-2 6-2#886William Rejchtman Vinciguerra

3-6 6-2 6-2—Oskar Jansson

6-2 6-1#311Matthew Dellavedova

6-4 1-6 6-3#412Kasidit Samrej

6-2 7-6(4)#750Isaac Becroft

6-1 6-2—Arjun Mehrotra

6-4 6-2#1330Thantub Suksumrarn

6-2 6-1#422Masamichi Imamura

7-6(0) 2-6 6-3#898Tristan Stringer

Mark Ceban

6W 9L

7-5 4-6 6-1#403Lui Maxted

6-4 7-6(3)#488George Loffhagen

6-3 6-3#891Charlie Robertson

7-6(5) 6-0—Luke Hooper

6-3 6-2—Henry Jefferson

1-6 6-1 6-2#1391Ronald Hohmann

6-1 7-5—Luke Hooper

6-2 6-4#190Roberto Carballes Baena

7-5 7-5#158Zhizhen Zhang

6-1 6-3#227Oliver Crawford

4-6 6-3 6-4—Aaron Funk

6-4 6-1—Nicholas Godsick

6-3 7-6(10)—Stefan Cooper

6-2 3-1 ret.#816Toby Martin

7-5 7-5#816Toby Martin

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ASAnton SheppShepp

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Mark CebanCebanMC

Anton Shepp carries the stronger recent form — Mark Ceban's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1563.0%+2.9pp65.9%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1571.4%+8.4pp63.0%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1551.0%+2.3pp48.7%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/155.7+3.52.2

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.90.7 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1538.7%+1.7pp37.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1542.7%+5.9pp48.6%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1556.6%+3.3pp53.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.6%+2.5pp48.1%

Serve · 3–2

63.0%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+2.9pp65.9%

71.4%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+8.4pp63.0%

51.0%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+2.3pp48.7%

5.7Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+3.52.2

2.9Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.7 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

38.7%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.7pp37.0%

Pressure · 1–1

42.7%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+5.9pp48.6%

56.6%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+3.3pp53.3%

Points · 1–0

50.6%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.5pp48.1%