United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Alec Deckers #577Netherlands2Ali Habib #1092United Kingdom1

Sets 3-6 · 6-3 · 6-2Mon 17 Aug 2026, 12:00 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions2–433%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlec Deckers · 515 places

Alec Deckers

Netherlands

Dutch right-hander, born 2 May 2000, with a career-best ATP ranking of No. 483 in August 2023. No verified current injury, withdrawal, or return-from-absence report was located in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #577
Peak ranking: #483 · 2023
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Ali Habib

United Kingdom

British right-hander, age 23, whose ITF profile lists hard as his preferred surface. His ATP career-high singles ranking was No. 933 in October 2024.

Current ranking: #1092
Peak ranking: #933 · 2024
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Aug 2026, 06:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Alec Deckers is the clear favorite over Ali Habib, with superior hard-court form and a dominant serve.

However, the odds on Deckers are too short to offer value, so bettors should consider the over 21.5 total games or over 12.5 total aces markets instead.

Context

Deckers has won 77.4% of first-serve points in his last 15 matches, compared to Habib's 66.0%.
- On hard courts, Deckers' first-serve points won rises to 78.8%.
- Deckers averages 10.1 aces per match, while Habib averages only 3.1.
Habib's overall record in his last 15 matches is 5-10 (33.3%).
- His last match was a 6-2 6-1 win over Samuel Battistone, who is unranked.
- In his previous match, he lost 6-2 6-2 to Emile Hudd, ranked 475.
Deckers' last match was a 7-6(1) 6-7(4) 6-4 win over Conor Gannon.
- In his last 15 matches, Deckers has played 5 tiebreaks.
- His average match duration is 121.4 minutes.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alec Deckers

1.12fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 89.3%

0.0ppshort

Deckers has a stronger recent hard-court record and serve metrics, giving him a clear edge in this Bo3 match.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alec Deckers

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Deckers' superior first-serve effectiveness and strong first-set conversion rate support him taking the opening set, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Alec Deckers 2-0

1.45fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

The quoted price for a straight-sets Deckers win is far too short relative to his actual straight-set rate in recent matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Deckers has a stronger recent hard-court record and serve metrics, giving him a clear edge in this Bo3 match.
- Deckers last 15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%), Habib 5-10 (33.3%)
- Deckers last 15 hard-court record 8-5 (61.5%), Habib 5-7 (41.7%)
- Deckers last 15 first-serve points won 77.4% vs Habib 66.0%
- Deckers ranking 585 vs Habib unranked
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlec DeckersEstimated chance68%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent first sets average near or above 9.5 games, making a longer opening set likely.
- Deckers last 15 first-set average 9.7 games
- Habib last 15 first-set average 9.3 games
- Deckers last 15 hard-court first-set average 9.8 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average above 21.5 total games, suggesting a competitive match with enough games to go over.
- Deckers last 15 average 24.3 games per match
- Habib last 15 average 21.5 games per match
- Deckers last 15 hard-court average 25.0 games per match
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Deckers' superior first-serve effectiveness and strong first-set conversion rate support him taking the opening set.
- Deckers last 15 first-set win conversion 86% career
- Deckers last 15 hard-court first-serve points won 78.8%
- Habib last 15 first-serve points won 66.0%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlec DeckersEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Deckers' high ace rate alone nearly covers the line, and Habib adds a few aces, making over 12.5 likely.
- Deckers last 15 aces per match 10.1
- Habib last 15 aces per match 3.1
- Deckers last 15 hard-court aces per match 10.3
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault averages exceed 5.5, supporting a moderate over play.
- Deckers last 15 double faults per match 3.5
- Habib last 15 double faults per match 2.8
- Combined average 6.3 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Habib's recent form and serve metrics are significantly weaker than Deckers, making the longshot price misleading.

Previous match context available

Alec Deckers

8W 7L

7-6(1) 6-7(4) 6-4#824Conor Gannon

6-3 2-6 6-3#629Aziz Dougaz

7-6(3) 7-5#693Egor Agafonov

7-6(3) 6-2—Danial Rakhmatullayev

4-6 7-5 7-5—Kerem Yilmaz

6-2 6-4—Samim Filiz

6-4 2-6 6-1#891Charlie Robertson

6-0 6-7(1) 6-1—Andreas Timini

7-5 6-3—Udit Kamboj

6-0 7-6(10)#738Devin Badenhorst

7-6(6) 6-2—Kriish Tyagi

6-7(8) 6-2 6-4#891Charlie Robertson

6-3 7-6(4)#323Carl Emil Overbeck

6-2 6-3#164Bernard Tomic

7-6(4) 6-4#1731Justin Schlageter

Ali Habib

5W 10L

6-2 6-1—Samuel Battistone

6-2 6-2#475Emile Hudd

6-1 6-4#874Marcus Walters

6-4 6-2#659Ryan Seggerman

6-4 7-5—Alexander Frusina

6-1 4-6 6-3—Charles Bertimon

3-6 7-6(5) 7-5—Ibrahim Snoussi

6-2 2-0 ret.—Milan Ristov

6-2 7-6(6)#701Samuel Vincent Ruggeri

6-3 5-7 6-2#492Thijs Boogaard

6-2 6-3—Filippo Francesco Garbero

2-6 6-4 6-4#681Yurii Dzhavakian

6-2 6-7(5) 6-1—Rhys Lawlor

6-1 2-6 7-5#562Dimitris Sakellaridis

6-0 6-3#857Anas Mazdrashki

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ADAlec DeckersDeckers

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Ali HabibHabibAH

Alec Deckers carries the stronger recent form — Ali Habib's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1552.4%+2.6pp55.0%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1577.4%+11.4pp66.0%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1552.8%+6.9pp45.9%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/1510.1+7.03.1

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.50.7 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1536.5%+3.0pp39.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1541.8%+4.9pp36.9%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1564.3%+13.8pp50.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.9%+2.7pp48.2%

Serve · 3–2

52.4%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+2.6pp55.0%

77.4%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+11.4pp66.0%

52.8%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+6.9pp45.9%

10.1Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+7.03.1

3.5Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.7 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

36.5%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.0pp39.5%

Pressure · 2–0

41.8%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+4.9pp36.9%

64.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+13.8pp50.5%

Points · 1–0

50.9%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.7pp48.2%