United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Alafia Ayeni #460United States0Patrick Brady #812United Kingdom2

Sets 1-6 · 4-6Mon 17 Aug 2026, 12:00 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions4–357%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlafia Ayeni · 352 places

Alafia Ayeni

United States

Structured match data lists Ayeni at No. 460 with a right-handed, two-handed backhand game and height of 191 cm.

Current ranking: #460
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Patrick Brady

United Kingdom

British right-hander, born 14 November 2004. Public profile sources list a career-best singles ranking of No. 728 in February 2024; no reliable preferred-surface or current injury trajectory source was found.

Current ranking: #812
Peak ranking: #728 · 2024
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 22:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Patrick Brady's superior recent hard-court form and serve efficiency give him a clear edge over Alafia Ayeni, despite the ranking gap.

Brady is a value bet at 1.75 with a 62% estimated win probability. The over on total aces and double faults are also attractive due to Ayeni's high-risk serving style.

Context

Brady's last 8 hard-court record is 5-3 (62.5%), compared to Ayeni's 2-4 (33.3%) in his last 6.
- Brady has won 54.3% of total points on hard courts in his last 8 matches, while Ayeni has won only 49.5% in his last 6.
- Brady has taken the first set in 6 of his last 8 hard-court matches; Ayeni has done so in only 2 of 6.
Ayeni averages 6.9 aces per match in his last 15, but also 6.0 double faults per match.
- On hard courts in his last 6 matches, his double fault rate rises to 7.3 per match.
- Ayeni's first serve percentage is only 60.1% overall, and 56.9% on hard courts, giving Brady many second-serve looks.
Brady's first serve percentage is 70.7% in his last 15 matches, compared to Ayeni's 60.1%.
- Brady wins 52.4% of second-serve points overall, while Ayeni wins only 44.2%.
- On hard courts, Brady's first serve percentage rises to 73.1% and he wins 71.7% of first-serve points.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Brady's superior recent hard-court form and serve efficiency give him the edge over Ayeni, whose last-15 hard-court record is poor.
- Patrick Brady last 15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%) vs Alafia Ayeni 7-8 (46.7%)
- Brady hard-court last 8 record 5-3 (62.5%) vs Ayeni hard-court last 6 record 2-4 (33.3%)
- Brady first serve in 70.7% and second serve points won 52.4% in last 15; Ayeni first serve in 60.1% and second serve points won 44.2%
- Brady ranking 812 vs Ayeni ranking 460, but recent surface form favors Brady
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPatrick BradyEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players holding serve at a decent rate and neither converting breaks efficiently, the first set is likely to feature at least 10 games.
- Ayeni last 15 first serve points won 71.4% and Brady 69.4%, indicating hold-heavy sets
- Brady last 15 break points saved only 44.4%, but Ayeni break points converted only 32.8%
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 52-54% career
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches have been competitive with moderate game totals, and neither has shown dominant break efficiency to shorten the match.
- Ayeni last 15 average duration 109.9 minutes; Brady last 15 average duration 111.9 minutes
- Ayeni last 15 games won 49% and Brady 54%, suggesting competitive sets
- Both players have similar break point conversion rates around 33-38% in recent matches
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Brady's stronger hard-court serving and point dominance in recent matches make him likely to take the opening set.
- Brady first set win conversion 83% career vs Ayeni 84% career, but Brady's recent hard-court first serve points won 71.7%
- Brady last 15 hard-court total points won 54.3% vs Ayeni 49.5%
- Brady won first set in 6 of last 8 hard-court matches; Ayeni won first set in only 2 of last 6 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPatrick BradyEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ayeni's high ace rate on hard courts, combined with Brady's modest ace contribution, should push the total over 8.5 in a best-of-3 match.
- Ayeni last 15 aces per match 6.9, Brady 2.6
- Ayeni hard-court last 6 aces per match 7.3, Brady hard-court last 8 aces per match 3.3
- Combined expected aces around 9-10 based on recent averages
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ayeni's tendency to double fault frequently, especially on hard courts, makes the combined total likely to exceed 6.5.
- Ayeni last 15 double faults per match 6.0, Brady 1.5
- Ayeni hard-court last 6 double faults per match 7.3, Brady hard-court last 8 double faults per match 1.5
- Ayeni's high double fault rate is a consistent pattern across surfaces
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance60%

Previous match context available

Alafia Ayeni

7W 8L

6-1 6-2—Zach Stephens

6-7(2) 6-3 6-2#832Benjamin Pietri

7-6(2) 7-6(1)—Mikel Martinez

6-3 6-4#486Duncan Chan

6-3 6-4#781Matthew Forbes

3-6 6-3 7-5#344Facundo Mena

7-6(4) 6-3#462Carlo Alberto Caniato

6-2 2-6 5-2 ret.#732Jakub Nicod

6-3 6-4#542Ivan Ivanov

7-6(1) 6-1—Ethan Cook

6-3 7-5#265Franco Agamenone

3-6 6-4 7-6(2)#776Mert Naci Turker

6-3 6-4#474Reda Bennani

7-6(5) 6-4#590Imanol Lopez Morillo

6-4 7-6(7)#152Soon-Woo Kwon

Patrick Brady

8W 7L

6-1 6-0#898Jesse Delaney

7-6(6) 6-4#475Emile Hudd

7-6(5) 6-4#816Toby Martin

6-3 6-2#965Alexis Canter

6-1 6-1#270Alastair Gray

6-3 7-5#736Herman Hoeyeraal

7-6(4) 6-3#659Ryan Seggerman

6-2 6-1—James Mackinlay

7-5 6-4#276Giles Hussey

6-7(5) 6-1 6-3#213Rio Noguchi

7-5 7-6(4)#158Zhizhen Zhang

6-4 4-6 6-3#431Cyril Vandermeersch

6-3 6-0—Raghav Jaisinghani

7-6(1) 0-6 7-5#562Dimitris Sakellaridis

2-6 6-1 6-2#784Matt Ponchet

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AAAlafia AyeniAyeni

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Patrick BradyBradyPB

Patrick Brady carries the stronger recent form — Alafia Ayeni's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In60.1%+10.6pp70.7%

1st Serve Won71.4%+2.0pp69.4%

2nd Serve Won44.2%+8.2pp52.4%

Aces / Match6.9+4.32.6

Double Faults / Match6.04.5 fewer1.5

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won39.4%—39.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted32.8%+4.8pp37.6%

Break Pts Saved53.6%+9.2pp44.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.1%+1.8pp51.9%

Serve · 2–3

60.1%1st Serve In+10.6pp70.7%

71.4%1st Serve Won+2.0pp69.4%

44.2%2nd Serve Won+8.2pp52.4%

6.9Aces / Match+4.32.6

6.0Double Faults / Match4.5 fewer1.5

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

39.4%Return Pts Won—39.9%

Pressure · 1–1

32.8%Break Pts Converted+4.8pp37.6%

53.6%Break Pts Saved+9.2pp44.4%

Points · 0–1

50.1%Total Pts Won+1.8pp51.9%