United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Rhys LawlorUnited Kingdom0Nicolas Tepmahc #591France2

Sets 4-6 · 2-6Sun 16 Aug 2026, 11:20 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions4–180%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Rhys Lawlor

United Kingdom

Limited reliable public profile information was found. Use the structured form and match data as the main context.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Nicolas Tepmahc

France

The ITF listed Tepmahc at ATP No. 591 on 29 June 2026, after a career-best No. 586 on 8 June 2026. Public profile sources identify him as a 25-year-old French right-hander; hard courts are listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #591
Peak ranking: #586 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 08:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Tepmahc is favored due to hard-court experience and return stats, but his recent form is poor.

The match is likely to be competitive, with value on Tepmahc to win at 1.80 and over 21.5 total games. Avoid set 1 winner on Tepmahc given his current slump.

Context

Tepmahc's last five results: L, L, L, W, L (only one win).
- Lawlor's last five results: L, W, W, L, L (three wins).
- Tepmahc retired in a match on 2026-06-11 against Diego Fernandez Flores.
- Tepmahc's last15 overall record is 8-7, while Lawlor's is 7-8.
Lawlor last15 first serve points won: 66.2% vs Tepmahc 64.6%.
- Lawlor last15 aces per match: 4.8 vs Tepmahc 1.9.
- Tepmahc last15 return points won: 43.1% vs Lawlor 39.4%.
- Lawlor's first-serve effectiveness is stronger on hard courts (63.1% points won).
Tepmahc career hard-court wins: 163 vs Lawlor 4.
- Tepmahc last15 hard-court record: 8-7 vs Lawlor 4-5.
- Tepmahc has played 387 career matches, Lawlor only 15.
- Tepmahc's career win percentage on hard courts is 53.7%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Tepmahc's stronger recent return numbers and vastly superior hard-court experience give him the edge in this Bo3 qualifying match.
- Tepmahc last15 overall record 8-7 (53.3%) vs Lawlor 7-8 (46.7%)
- Tepmahc last15 return points won 43.1% vs Lawlor 39.4%
- Tepmahc career hard-court wins 163 vs Lawlor 4
- Lawlor last15 hard-court record 4-5, Tepmahc 8-7 on hard
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNicolas TepmahcEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent match averages hover near 21.5 total games, and their comparable point-winning rates suggest a competitive match likely to exceed the line.
- Lawlor last15 average 21.8 games per match
- Tepmahc last15 average 21.4 games per match
- Both players have similar games-won percentages around 48-52%
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set game averages for both players are near or above 9.5, indicating a tight opening set is likely.
- Lawlor last15 first-set average 9.7 games
- Tepmahc last15 first-set average 9.5 games
- Both players have similar first-set competitiveness
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tepmahc's high career first-set conversion rate suggests he starts matches strongly, though Lawlor's recent first-serve effectiveness keeps this close.
- Tepmahc first-set win conversion career 89%
- Lawlor first-set win conversion 70%
- Tepmahc last15 first serve points won 64.6% vs Lawlor 66.2%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonNicolas TepmahcEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined recent ace averages of 6.7 per match fall below the 7.5 line, supporting the under.
- Lawlor last15 aces per match 4.8
- Tepmahc last15 aces per match 1.9
- Combined average 6.7 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Lawlor's strong tiebreak record, the overall match dynamics and both players' recent set scores suggest a tiebreak is less likely than not.
- Lawlor career tiebreak win percentage 75%
- Tepmahc career tiebreak win percentage 49%
- Both players have moderate tiebreak frequency in recent matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault average of 5.8 per match slightly exceeds the 5.5 line, making the over a reasonable lean.
- Lawlor last15 double faults per match 4.1
- Tepmahc last15 double faults per match 1.7
- Combined average 5.8 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Rhys Lawlor

7W 8L

5-7 6-2 6-3#403Lui Maxted

6-4 6-3—Vincent Fletcher

6-4 6-3—William Mclennaghan

6-7(9) 6-3 6-3#563James Story

6-4 6-2#243James McCabe

6-3 7-5#357Anton Matusevich

6-2 6-3#413Patrick Zahraj

6-2 6-7(5) 6-1—Ali Habib

6-4 6-4—Pablo De La Cierva Sanchez

6-0 6-1#492Thijs Boogaard

6-0 6-4#812Finn Murgett

4-6 6-4 7-5#533Jelle Sels

6-2 6-2—Nathan Trouve

7-6(5) 7-6(6)#827Ryan James Storrie

6-4 7-5—Luca Parenti

Nicolas Tepmahc

8W 7L

7-5 6-1#421Sergio Callejon Hernando

6-3 2-6 6-3#516Pavel Lagutin

6-1 6-4—Theo Herrmann

6-1 6-2—Melih Anavatan

7-5 6-3#354Ivan Marrero Curbelo

5-7 6-0 7-6(5)—Anmar Faleh Alhogbani

6-1 6-4—Cem Christopher Kucukhuseyin

6-4 6-3—Udit Kamboj

6-4 2-6 5-2 ret.#869Diego Fernandez Flores

6-1 6-0—Mahmoud Chetouane

6-3 6-1—Benjamin Willwerth

2-6 6-1 6-3#485Yassine Dlimi

7-5 7-6(6)#797Ryuki Matsuda

1-6 6-0 6-3—Benjamin Willwerth

6-4 6-7(8) 6-2#898Diogo Marques

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RLRhys LawlorLawlor

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Nicolas TepmahcTepmahcNT

Nicolas Tepmahc carries the stronger recent form — Rhys Lawlor's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1562.4%+2.9pp65.3%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1566.2%+1.6pp64.6%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1550.6%+2.9pp47.7%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/154.8+2.91.9

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/154.12.4 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1539.4%+3.7pp43.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1542.4%+1.4pp43.8%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1556.3%+4.7pp61.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1549.5%+1.4pp50.9%

Serve · 3–2

62.4%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+2.9pp65.3%

66.2%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+1.6pp64.6%

50.6%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+2.9pp47.7%

4.8Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+2.91.9

4.1Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/152.4 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

39.4%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+3.7pp43.1%

Pressure · 0–2

42.4%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+1.4pp43.8%

56.3%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+4.7pp61.0%

Points · 0–1

49.5%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+1.4pp50.9%