United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Peter Makk #553Hungary2Roan Jones #1612United Kingdom0

Sets 7-6 · 6-3Sun 16 Aug 2026, 09:40 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions4–267%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePeter Makk · 1059 places

Peter Makk

Hungary

Hungarian right-hander born 20 October 2001. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; public ranking sources show a substantial rise during 2026 rather than a clearly sourced decline.

Current ranking: #553
Peak ranking: #546
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Roan Jones

United Kingdom

British player from Shrewsbury, England, born 26 October 2003. Available public data places his recorded ATP peak at No. 1612 on 20 July 2026; no reliable preferred-surface or playing-hand source was found.

Current ranking: #1612
Peak ranking: #1612 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 08:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Peter Makk's clay-court dominance faces a surface test against hard-court specialist Roan Jones.

The odds heavily favor Makk, but Jones's strong hard-court form and Makk's lack of recent hard-court play suggest value on Jones or the over on total games. Avoid Makk's straight-set win and set 1 winner markets due to inflated prices.

Context

Makk's last 15 matches are all on clay, with an 11-4 record and 56.2% games won.
- His recent wins include 6-3 6-3, 6-4 6-2, and 7-5 6-4 scorelines against lower-ranked opponents.
- Makk's career hard-court record is 36-32, but he has no hard-court data in the last 15 matches.
Jones's last 10 hard-court matches: 7-3 record, 60.7% games won, 53.7% total points won.
- Jones's first-serve points won on hard courts is 69.8%, close to Makk's 72% on clay.
- Jones has won 11 of his last 15 matches overall, with a 74.2% set win rate.
Jones retired against Nicolas Robert on 18 July 2026 at 4-1 in the first set.
- He has played five matches since then, winning four, with no further retirements or medical timeouts reported.
- No current injury or withdrawal reports were found in the 30 days before this match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Peter Makk

1.30fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

The model's 58% estimate is well below the 76.9% implied by the odds, so there is no value on Makk despite his surface edge.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Peter Makk

1.36fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Makk's high first-set conversion rate and recent strong starts give him a slight edge, but the odds heavily favor him and offer no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Surface-fit edge is decisive: Makk has strong recent clay form while Jones has no clay pedigree, and Makk's serve/return numbers on clay are solid.
- Peter Makk last 15 on clay: 11-4 record, 56.2% games won, 52.9% total points won.
- Roan Jones has 0 career clay wins and 0-3 clay record in 2025; his last 15 are on hard/carpet.
- Makk's recent form: 5 straight wins on clay in August 2026, including 6-3 6-3, 6-4 6-2, 7-5 6-4.
- Makk's first-serve points won 72% and second-serve points won 53% in last 15; Jones's hard-court first-serve points won 69.8%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPeter MakkEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent match game totals hover around 22-23, and Makk's clay matches often extend, making Over 21.5 slightly more likely.
- Makk's last 15 average duration 118.3 minutes; Jones's last 12 average 89.7 minutes.
- Makk's last 15 games per match average 23.0 (345 games / 15 matches); Jones's last 12 average 22.7 (272 games / 12 matches).
- Makk's recent clay matches: 18, 18, 22, 19, 31 games; Jones's recent hard/carpet: 31, 16, 19, 29, 15 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets average around 9.5 games, and Makk's clay first sets often reach 10 or more, supporting a slight Over lean.
- Makk's last 15 first-set games average 9.7 (145 games / 15 matches).
- Jones's last 12 first-set games average 9.3 (112 games / 12 matches).
- Makk's recent clay first sets: 9, 10, 12, 9, 10 games; Jones's recent hard/carpet first sets: 7, 7, 10, 10, 8 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Makk's strong recent clay starts and high first-set conversion rate give him a slight edge in set 1.
- Makk's first-set win conversion career is 88%; in last 15 he won 11 of 15 matches.
- Makk has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches on clay.
- Jones's first-set win conversion career is 83%, but his recent first sets on hard/carpet are mixed (lost first set in 3 of last 5).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPeter MakkEstimated chance57%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low tiebreak rates in recent matches, and Makk's poor tiebreak record reduces the likelihood of a tiebreak occurring.
- Makk's career tiebreak win percentage is 38%; Jones's is 71%.
- Makk's last 15 matches: 3 tiebreaks in 36 sets (8.3%); Jones's last 12 matches: 2 tiebreaks in 31 sets (6.5%).
- Combined tiebreak rate per set: approximately 7.5%.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Makk's high double-fault rate on clay (3.5 per match) alone nearly covers the line, and Jones adds about 1.5, making Over 4.5 a coin flip.
- Makk averages 3.5 double faults per match in last 15; Jones averages 1.5 in last 12.
- Combined average double faults per match: 5.0 (Makk 3.5 + Jones 1.5).
- Makk's recent clay matches: 4, 3, 5, 2, 4 double faults; Jones's recent hard/carpet: 1, 2, 1, 1, 2 double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Jones is overpriced given his strong hard-court form and Makk's surface transition.

Peter Makk

11W 4L

6-3 6-3—Matthias Ujvary

6-4 6-2#742John Hallquist Lithen

7-5 6-4—Nico Hipfl

6-3 6-4—Ferdinand Livet Novkirichka

6-4 3-6 7-5—Radovan Michalik

2-6 6-3 7-5#202Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-1 6-1#363Francesco Forti

6-1 6-0#898Jesse Delaney

4-6 6-3 6-0#387Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-3 7-6(6)#629Ramkumar Ramanathan

6-1 7-6(4)#254Felix Balshaw

7-5 6-7(5) 6-3—Robert Guna

6-3 3-6 6-3#439Yannik Kelm

6-3 6-3—Jeremy Schifris

6-7(2) 6-3 7-6(4)—Oskari Paldanius

Roan Jones

11W 4L

1-6 6-4 10-4#827Ryan James Storrie

6-1 6-3—Conor Brady

6-4 6-3#593Daniel De Jonge

6-4 4-6 6-3#887Pavlos Tsitsipas

6-2 6-1—Jeffrey Fradkin

6-3 6-0—Martijn Molenkamp

6-3 6-1—Finn Lester

4-1 ret.#864Nicolas Robert

7-6(6) 6-2#867Alaa Trifi

6-1 2-2 ret.—Sean Daryabeigi

6-3 6-4#534Digvijaypratap Singh

6-0 6-3—Ruslan Serazhetdinov

6-1 6-3—Taentawan Taddeo Majoli Maggioli

6-3 6-1—Pascal Tylek

4-6 6-2 6-4—Paul Barbier Gazeu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PMPeter MakkMakk

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Roan JonesJonesRJ

Roan Jones carries the stronger recent form — Peter Makk's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 12/1559.9%+10.4pp70.3%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 12/1572.0%+2.6pp69.4%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 12/1553.0%—53.4%

Aces / Match15/15 · 12/154.0+1.72.3

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 12/153.52.0 fewer1.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 12/1542.1%+2.0pp44.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 12/1541.5%—41.2%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 12/1560.2%+1.2pp61.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 12/1552.9%+1.5pp54.4%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

59.9%1st Serve In15/15 · 12/15+10.4pp70.3%

72.0%1st Serve Won15/15 · 12/15+2.6pp69.4%

53.0%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 12/15—53.4%

4.0Aces / Match15/15 · 12/15+1.72.3

3.5Double Faults / Match15/15 · 12/152.0 fewer1.5

Return · 0–1

42.1%Return Pts Won15/15 · 12/15+2.0pp44.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

41.5%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 12/15—41.2%

60.2%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 12/15+1.2pp61.4%

Points · 0–1

52.9%Total Pts Won15/15 · 12/15+1.5pp54.4%