SwitzerlandSion - SwitzerlandFinished

Predictions graded

Daniel Salazar Martinez #779Colombia0Lorenzo Bocchi #610Italy2

Sets 2-6 · 5-7Sun 16 Aug 2026, 08:05 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions2–433%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLorenzo Bocchi · 169 places

Daniel Salazar Martinez

Colombia

Tennis Abstract lists him as 25, with a career-best ranking of No. 798 reached in July 2026. No reliable source in the requested search set established a preferred surface or active fitness issue.

Current ranking: #779
Peak ranking: #798 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Lorenzo Bocchi

Italy

The ITF lists Bocchi as 28, right-handed, and clay-preferring, with a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 605 in July 2023. No current injury, withdrawal, or return-from-absence signal was verified in the requested search set.

Current ranking: #610
Peak ranking: #605 · 2023
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 06:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Bocchi's superior break-point conversion and serve metrics give him a slight edge over Salazar, but the match is likely to be competitive.

The best betting angle is over 21.5 total games, while Bocchi's moneyline at 1.65 offers no value. Avoid Salazar at 2.25 and Bocchi to win set 1 at 1.60.

Context

Salazar lost 6-0 6-0 to Ziga Sesko (ranked 795) on 12 August.
- That was his third loss in his last five matches.
- He has won only 51.4% of games in his last 15 matches.
Bocchi has converted 55 of 95 break points (57.9%) in his last 15 matches.
- Salazar has converted 53 of 135 break points (39.3%) in the same span.
- Bocchi also saves break points at 66.7% versus Salazar's 58.3%.
Salazar's average match duration is 109.2 minutes over his last 15 matches.
- Bocchi's average match duration is 110.0 minutes over his last 15 matches.
- Both have played multiple three-set matches recently, indicating similar endurance demands.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Lorenzo Bocchi

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Bocchi's superior break-point conversion and games-won percentage on clay give him a slight edge, but the odds imply a higher probability than the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Bocchi's superior recent break-point conversion and games-won percentage on clay give him a slight edge in a matchup of similar form.
- Lorenzo Bocchi last15 overall record 9-6 (60%), Daniel Salazar Martinez 9-6 (60%)
- Bocchi last15 games won 55.7% vs Salazar 51.4%
- Bocchi last15 break points converted 57.9% vs Salazar 39.3%
- Bocchi ranking 610 vs Salazar 779
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLorenzo BocchiEstimated chance55%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined recent match game averages and presence of multiple three-setters suggest a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 total games.
- Salazar last15 average 21.4 games per match (165 games / 15 matches)
- Bocchi last15 average 19.4 games per match (162 games / 15 matches)
- Salazar recent matches include three three-setters in last 15, Bocchi two three-setters
- Both players have similar total points won percentages around 50-52%
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be close given both players' recent first-set game averages near 9.5 and comparable serve effectiveness.
- Salazar last15 first set average 9.4 games (calculated from parsed sets)
- Bocchi last15 first set average 9.1 games
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages around 62-65%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bocchi's stronger serve and break-point saving in recent clay matches make him slightly more likely to take the opening set.
- Bocchi last15 first set win rate not directly available, but overall sets won 58.1% vs Salazar 57.1%
- Bocchi first serve points won 65.4% vs Salazar 62.0%
- Bocchi break points saved 66.7% vs Salazar 58.3%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLorenzo BocchiEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bocchi's higher ace rate pushes the combined expected aces above 3.5, though Salazar's low ace count adds uncertainty.
- Bocchi last15 aces per match 2.6, Salazar 1.4
- Combined average aces per match 4.0
- Bocchi career aces 823 in 422 matches (1.95 per match), Salazar 96 in 219 (0.44 per match)
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bocchi's high double-fault rate drives the combined total above 3.5, but Salazar's low rate makes this a borderline call.
- Bocchi last15 double faults per match 2.8, Salazar 1.3
- Combined average double faults per match 4.1
- Bocchi career double faults 1030 in 422 matches (2.44 per match), Salazar 200 in 219 (0.91 per match)
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Daniel Salazar Martinez

9W 6L

6-0 6-0#795Ziga Sesko

3-6 6-3 7-6(3)#578Marcel Zielinski

7-5 7-6(6)#560Alec Beckley

4-6 6-1 7-6(0)—Linus Lagerbohm

6-3 6-3—Jan Sadzik

4-6 6-3 6-4—Richard Antoni

6-3 6-4—Tristan Berard

6-4 6-4—Mikail Alimli

6-1 4-6 6-3#395Georgii Kravchenko

3-6 6-3 6-2#523Federico Arnaboldi

6-3 6-2#377Max Wiskandt

7-6(1) 3-0 ret.#847Benito Sanchez Martinez

6-4 6-2#886Brian Bozemoj

6-2 6-2—Ruben Hartig

6-2 6-4—Christian Djonov

Lorenzo Bocchi

9W 6L

6-2 6-4#461Matthew William Donald

7-5 7-5#562Dimitris Sakellaridis

6-0 6-3—Filiberto Fumagalli

6-2 6-2—Matic Hribar

6-3 ret.—Glib Sekachov

7-6(3) 6-1#322Gonzalo Villanueva

6-2 7-5—Lorenzo Berto

6-4 2-6 7-5#402Andrej Martin

6-0 6-2—Nicolo Toffanin

6-2 5-7 7-5—Unknown Player

7-5 6-0—Filiberto Fumagalli

6-0 6-3—William Mirarchi

7-6(3) 6-4#564Alexander Weis

6-3 6-4#421Sergio Callejon Hernando

6-3 6-3—Ruslan Tiukaev

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DMDaniel Salazar MartinezMartinez

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Lorenzo BocchiBocchiLB

Lorenzo Bocchi carries the stronger recent form — Daniel Salazar Martinez's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In63.3%+6.4pp56.9%

1st Serve Won62.0%+3.4pp65.4%

2nd Serve Won51.0%—51.0%

Aces / Match1.4+1.22.6

Double Faults / Match1.31.5 fewer2.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won43.3%—43.5%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted39.3%+18.6pp57.9%

Break Pts Saved58.3%+8.4pp66.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.5%+1.3pp51.8%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

63.3%1st Serve In+6.4pp56.9%

62.0%1st Serve Won+3.4pp65.4%

51.0%2nd Serve Won—51.0%

1.4Aces / Match+1.22.6

1.3Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer2.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

43.3%Return Pts Won—43.5%

Pressure · 0–2

39.3%Break Pts Converted+18.6pp57.9%

58.3%Break Pts Saved+8.4pp66.7%

Points · 0–1

50.5%Total Pts Won+1.3pp51.8%