SwitzerlandSion - SwitzerlandRET

Predictions graded

Benjamin Hassan #5141Flynn Thomas #1658Switzerland0

Sets 4-0Sun 16 Aug 2026, 14:40 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions2–167%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBenjamin Hassan · 1144 places

Benjamin Hassan

Lebanese player born 4 February 1995. Reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 143 in June 2024; his recorded career match volume is strongest on clay.

Current ranking: #514
Peak ranking: #143 · 2024
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Flynn Thomas

Switzerland

Swiss player born 9 July 2008. The official US Open profile lists him at No. 1658 in men's singles; other reliable senior-profile details were not surfaced.

Current ranking: #1658
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 06:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Hassan is favored but overpriced at 1.22 given his poor recent form.

Thomas +3.5 games and over 21.5 total games are the best value plays, as both players struggle to hold serve. Expect a competitive match with high double faults and low aces.

Context

Hassan's last 15 clay record is 6-8 (42.9%), with losses to #395, #467, #524, and #625 in recent weeks.
- He has won only 46.5% of games on clay in that span, showing he is not dominating even when competitive.
- His recent wins have come against lower-ranked opponents like #122, #193, and #284, but he also lost to #330 and #395.
Thomas's last 10 clay matches show a 4-6 record, but he won 45.7% of games, indicating tight sets.
- He has losses by scores like 6-4 6-4 and 6-3 6-3, showing he can stay close against stronger opponents.
- His recent win over #340 Hernan Casanova (retirement) and a 6-0 6-0 win over #520 Fares Zakaria show he can compete at this level.
Hassan saves only 58.2% of break points in his last 15 matches; Thomas saves 56.3%.
- Hassan's first serve points won is 67.2%, Thomas's is 66.2%, so neither dominates on serve.
- Hassan's average match has 23.3 games, Thomas's 19.7, but Thomas's low average is skewed by one-sided losses.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Benjamin Hassan

1.22fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Hassan's superior clay-court experience and recent wins over higher-ranked opponents give him a clear edge over the inexperienced Thomas.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Benjamin Hassan

1.30fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Hassan's stronger first-set conversion rate and better recent clay form make him likely to start fast.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Hassan's superior clay-court experience and recent wins over higher-ranked opponents give him a clear edge over the inexperienced Thomas.
- Benjamin Hassan last 15 overall record 6-9 (40%), but 6-8 on clay with wins over #122, #193, #284 in May 2026.
- Flynn Thomas last 15 overall record 5-10 (33.3%), clay record 4-6 (40%) with losses to #625 and #678 in recent weeks.
- Hassan career clay win percentage 57.1% (206-155), Thomas career clay win percentage 32.1% (5-11).
- Hassan ranking 514 vs Thomas unranked; Hassan has 604 career matches vs Thomas 28.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBenjamin HassanEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players struggle to hold serve, leading to extended games and a higher total.
- Hassan last 15 average 23.3 games per match (161 games / 15 matches).
- Thomas last 15 average 19.7 games per match (133 games / 15 matches).
- Both players have low hold percentages: Hassan 58.2% break points saved, Thomas 56.3%.
- Hassan clay matches average 23.6 games; Thomas clay matches average 17.3 games but with several one-sided losses.
BetBugs · Total Gamesnot gradableOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Thomas's competitive recent clay matches suggest he can cover the +3.5 game handicap.
- Hassan last 15 games won percentage 46%, Thomas 44.9%.
- Hassan average margin of victory in wins 4.2 games, Thomas 5.6 games.
- Thomas has kept 6 of his last 10 clay matches within 3 games.
BetBugs · Game Handicapnot gradableFlynn Thomas +3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
The first set is likely to be closely contested given both players' similar first-serve effectiveness.
- Hassan first set average 9.7 games in last 15 (145 games / 15 sets).
- Thomas first set average 9.3 games in last 15 (140 games / 15 sets).
- Both players have first serve points won around 66-67%, suggesting competitive sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Hassan's stronger first-set conversion rate and better recent clay form make him likely to start fast.
- Hassan first set win conversion 86% career, Thomas 73% career.
- Hassan last 15 sets won 40.5%, Thomas 38.2%.
- Hassan has won first set in 4 of his last 6 clay wins; Thomas lost first set in 4 of his last 6 losses.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBenjamin HassanEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double fault rates, especially Thomas, making over 8.5 likely.
- Hassan last 15 double faults per match 4.1, Thomas 5.8.
- Combined average 9.9 double faults per match.
- Thomas clay double faults per match 6.6, Hassan clay 3.9.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Thomas's very low ace rate on clay keeps the combined total under the line.
- Hassan last 15 aces per match 4.1, Thomas 1.5.
- Combined average 5.6 aces per match, but Thomas's low ace count on clay (1.1) drags total down.
- Hassan clay aces per match 4.1, Thomas clay 1.1.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The heavy favorite price on Hassan does not reflect his recent poor form and Thomas's competitive clay performances.

Benjamin Hassan

6W 9L

6-3 6-4#512Radu Albot

1-6 6-4 6-4#239Sumit Nagal

6-2 3-6 7-6(3)#302Miguel Damas

6-3 4-6 6-2#467Daniel Siniakov

7-6(4) 6-2#524Alex Marti Pujolras

6-2 6-4#395Georgii Kravchenko

6-3 5-7 7-5#330Daniel Michalski

6-4 6-2#284Filip Cristian Jianu

7-5 5-3 ret.#141Hugo Dellien

6-4 2-6 6-3#193Lautaro Midon

6-4 6-3#122Nicolas Mejia

6-4 2-6 6-3#356Mitchell Krueger

7-6(1) 4-6 6-4—Goncalo Marques

6-3 6-2#182Remy Bertola

6-1 6-1#313Dali Blanch

Flynn Thomas

5W 10L

6-0 6-3#625Kai Wehnelt

6-4 2-0 ret.#340Hernan Casanova

2-6 6-2 4-0 ret.#1215Mohamed Nazim Makhlouf

6-4 6-4#274Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-3 6-3—Lambert Ruland

6-0 6-0#520Fares Zakaria

6-2 7-6(5)—Felix Raser

6-2 6-2#678Giorgio Tabacco

6-1 6-3#436Henry Bernet

6-4 7-6(1)—Batiste Guerra

3-6 6-3 6-2—Oskari Paldanius

6-4 6-2#614Leonardo Rossi

3-6 6-2 6-3#336Dominic Stricker

4-6 6-2 7-6(3)#891Jeffrey Von Der Schulenburg

7-6(7) 6-3#372Jonas Forejtek

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BHBenjamin HassanHassan

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Flynn ThomasThomasFT

Benjamin Hassan carries the stronger recent form — Flynn Thomas's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In51.6%+7.1pp58.7%

1st Serve Won67.2%+1.0pp66.2%

2nd Serve Won50.4%+12.0pp38.4%

Aces / Match4.1+2.61.5

Double Faults / Match4.11.7 fewer5.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.1%+1.0pp38.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted40.0%+8.8pp48.8%

Break Pts Saved58.2%+1.9pp56.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won48.1%+1.1pp47.0%

Serve · 4–1

51.6%1st Serve In+7.1pp58.7%

67.2%1st Serve Won+1.0pp66.2%

50.4%2nd Serve Won+12.0pp38.4%

4.1Aces / Match+2.61.5

4.1Double Faults / Match1.7 fewer5.8

Return · 0–1

37.1%Return Pts Won+1.0pp38.1%

Pressure · 1–1

40.0%Break Pts Converted+8.8pp48.8%

58.2%Break Pts Saved+1.9pp56.3%

Points · 1–0

48.1%Total Pts Won+1.1pp47.0%