Alec Deckers #577Netherlands22 – 1Conor Gannon #824Ireland1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Deckers' superior hard-court serve and break-point resilience in the recent window outweigh Gannon's slightly better overall record, giving Deckers the edge on this surface.

• Deckers last15 overall record 7-8 (46.7%) vs Gannon 9-6 (60%), but Deckers has stronger hard-court recent form: 7-5 on hard in last 12 matches.
• Deckers last15 hard-court first-serve points won 77.9% vs Gannon 68.6% on hard.
• Deckers last15 hard-court break points saved 65.2% vs Gannon 59.0% on hard.
• Deckers ranking 585 vs Gannon 824, and Deckers has a 193cm serve advantage.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have similar overall points-won percentages and lengthy match durations, suggesting a competitive match likely to exceed 22.5 games.

• Deckers last15 average match duration 118.1 minutes, Gannon 119.7 minutes, indicating long matches.
• Deckers last15 games won percentage 50.9%, Gannon 50.5%, showing close contests.
• Both players have high tiebreak involvement: Deckers 58% career tiebreak win, Gannon 48%.
• Deckers last15 hard-court matches averaged 24.1 games per match (289 games / 12 matches).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

With both players holding serve at a decent rate on hard courts and similar return effectiveness, the first set is likely to be tight and exceed 9.5 games.

• Deckers last15 hard-court first-serve points won 77.9% and Gannon 68.6%, but both have return points won around 37%.
• Gannon's last15 hard-court matches include two tiebreaks in six matches.
• Deckers' last15 hard-court average games per set is approximately 10.0 (289 games / 29 sets).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Deckers' strong first-serve performance on hard courts and Gannon's recent hard-court struggles make Deckers slightly more likely to take the opening set.

• Deckers first-set win conversion career 86% vs Gannon 88%, both strong.
• Deckers last15 hard-court first-serve points won 77.9% suggests early service holds.
• Gannon's last15 hard-court record is 3-3, with two straight-set losses in his last two hard matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The closeness of the players' recent stats and their history of tiebreaks make it likely that at least one set goes to a tiebreak.

• Deckers career tiebreak win percentage 58%, Gannon 48%, indicating frequent tiebreaks.
• Deckers last15 matches include multiple tiebreaks (e.g., 7-6(3), 7-6(3), 7-6(6)).
• Gannon's last15 matches include five tiebreaks in 15 matches.
• Both players have similar total points won percentages (50.4% vs 50.6%), suggesting close sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Deckers' strong ace rate on hard courts, combined with Gannon's moderate ace count, makes over 15.5 total aces plausible in a potentially long match.

• Deckers last15 overall aces per match 8.9, Gannon 7.1.
• Deckers last15 hard-court aces per match 9.3, Gannon 5.3 on hard.
• Combined expected aces based on recent hard-court rates: 9.3 + 5.3 = 14.6, close to 15.5 line.
• Deckers' 193cm height and 1877 career aces suggest high ace potential.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players average over three double faults per match, and a competitive match could push the combined total over 6.5.

• Deckers last15 overall double faults per match 3.3, Gannon 3.5.
• Deckers last15 hard-court double faults per match 3.8, Gannon 3.2 on hard.
• Combined expected double faults on hard: 3.8 + 3.2 = 7.0, slightly above 6.5 line.