United StatesATP CincinnatiFinished

Predictions graded

Henrique Rocha #125Portugal1Nicolas Mejia #129Colombia2

Sets 5-7 · 6-4 · 3-6Thu 13 Aug 2026, 17:57 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions5–183%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHenrique Rocha · 4 places

Henrique Rocha

Portugal

Rocha reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 118 on 20 April 2026. His 2026 ITF-recorded results are heavily concentrated on clay, where he held a 22-11 record through late July.

Current ranking: #125
Peak ranking: #118 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Nicolas Mejia

Colombia

Reached a career-high No. 129 on August 3, 2026. ATP lists grass as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #129
Peak ranking: #129 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Aug 2026, 08:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Mejia's superior recent form (12-3 last 15) and head-to-head win over Rocha make him the value pick at 2.30 odds, with a model edge of 18.5 points.

Expect a competitive match with over 22.5 total games likely, as both players average above that and their previous meeting went three sets.

Context

Mejia's last 15 overall record is 12-3 (80%), compared to Rocha's 8-7 (53.3%).
- Mejia has won 65.9% of sets in his last 15 matches, while Rocha has won 55.9%.
- Mejia's recent wins include victories over Martin Landaluce (ranked 64) and Marco Trungelliti (ranked 90).
Mejia defeated Rocha 6-4, 6-7(6), 6-2 in the first round of a grass tournament on 2026-06-22.
- In that match, Mejia won 73% of first-serve points and converted 50% of break points, while Rocha converted only 25%.
- Rocha committed 13 double faults in that match, compared to Mejia's 5.
Rocha's last 15 hard-court record is 1-1 (50%), with only 2 matches tracked.
- Mejia's last 15 hard-court record is 3-2 (60%), with 5 matches tracked.
- Rocha's hard-court sample includes a win over Marcos Giron (ranked 81) and a loss to Martin Damm (ranked 100).
Mejia's aces per match in last 15: 6.1, Rocha's: 2.7.
- Mejia wins 71.4% of first-serve points, Rocha wins 69.5%.
- Mejia's double faults per match: 2.6, Rocha's: 3.5.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Mejia's superior recent form and head-to-head win give him the edge, though Rocha's hard-court sample is too small to fully discount.
- Mejia last 15 overall record 12-3 (80%), Rocha 8-7 (53.3%)
- Mejia last 15 hard record 3-2 (60%), Rocha 1-1 (50%) with only 2 matches
- Mejia beat Rocha 6-4 6-7(6) 6-2 on grass in June 2026
- Mejia ranking 129 vs Rocha 125, but Mejia has stronger recent form
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNicolas MejiaEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 22.5 games, and their H2H went three sets, suggesting a competitive match with many games.
- Rocha last 15 average 23.0 games per match (345 games / 15)
- Mejia last 15 average 27.3 games per match (409 games / 15)
- H2H match had 31 games (6-4 6-7 6-2)
- Both players have similar total points won percentages (50.3% vs 51.9%)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players tend to play close first sets, with averages near 10 games, making over 9.5 likely.
- Rocha last 15 first set average 9.9 games (based on recent scores)
- Mejia last 15 first set average 10.1 games
- H2H first set was 6-4 (10 games)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mejia's stronger serve and prior first-set success against Rocha support a slight edge in set 1.
- Mejia won first set 6-4 in their only H2H meeting
- Mejia first set win conversion career 85%, Rocha 86%
- Mejia last 15 first serve points won 71.4%, Rocha 69.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonNicolas MejiaEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mejia's high ace count and Rocha's decent hard-court serving suggest a combined total over 8.5 aces.
- Mejia last 15 aces per match 6.1, Rocha 2.7
- Mejia hard court aces per match 4.0, Rocha hard court 5.5
- Combined expected aces around 8.8 based on recent averages
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 2.5 double faults per match, and Rocha's high double fault count in their H2H supports over 5.5.
- Rocha last 15 double faults per match 3.5, Mejia 2.6
- Combined average 6.1 double faults per match
- Rocha had 13 double faults in H2H match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Close sets and similar tiebreak abilities make a tiebreak in the match a coin-flip proposition.
- Rocha tiebreak win percentage 55%, Mejia 51%
- H2H match had a tiebreak in second set
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-4 6-7(6) 6-2Henrique Rocha#125vNicolas Mejia#129Jun 22, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Henrique Rocha

8W 7L

6-4 7-6(6)#81Marcos Giron

6-3 7-6(3)#100Martin Damm

7-5 7-5#148Pedro Martinez Portero

6-2 6-1#104Damir Dzumhur

6-4 6-7(6) 6-2#129Nicolas Mejia

7-6(2) 6-1#133Christopher O'Connell

7-6(4) 1-6 6-3#221Darwin Blanch

6-2 6-2#287Charles Broom

7-6(5) 6-3#63Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-4 6-2#147Timofey Skatov

6-2 4-6 6-2#176Remy Bertola

6-4 7-5#149Dusan Lajovic

6-4 7-6(7)#321Enrico Dalla Valle

6-3 3-6 7-6(9)#163Borna Gojo

6-4 7-6(4)#123Zsombor Piros

Nicolas Mejia

12W 3L

6-3 3-6 6-2#110Jacob Fearnley

7-6(8) 6-2#13Lorenzo Musetti

4-6 6-4 6-3#64Martin Landaluce

7-6(5) 3-6 6-1#90Marco Trungelliti

7-5 6-2#459Juan Alejandro Hernandez

6-1 7-5#256Matias Soto

6-4 5-7 6-1#232Juan Pablo Varillas

6-3 6-2#330Hernan Casanova

7-6(2) 6-7(3) 6-2#397Santiago Rodriguez Taverna

6-3 6-2#898Fermin Tenti

6-7(4) 7-6(8) 6-1 6-4#113Michael Zheng

4-6 6-4 7-5 7-6(2)#66Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

6-4 6-4 6-4#187Tristan Schoolkate

6-4 6-3#131Gustavo Heide

6-4 6-7(6) 6-2#125Henrique Rocha

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HRHenrique RochaRocha

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Nicolas MejiaMejiaNM

Nicolas Mejia carries the stronger recent form — Henrique Rocha's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In62.4%+1.8pp60.6%

1st Serve Won69.5%+1.9pp71.4%

2nd Serve Won51.8%+2.3pp54.1%

Aces / Match2.7+3.46.1

Double Faults / Match3.50.9 fewer2.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.6%+2.0pp39.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted44.8%+6.0pp38.8%

Break Pts Saved61.1%+8.7pp69.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.3%+1.6pp51.9%

Serve · 1–4

62.4%1st Serve In+1.8pp60.6%

69.5%1st Serve Won+1.9pp71.4%

51.8%2nd Serve Won+2.3pp54.1%

2.7Aces / Match+3.46.1

3.5Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer2.6

Return · 0–1

37.6%Return Pts Won+2.0pp39.6%

Pressure · 1–1

44.8%Break Pts Converted+6.0pp38.8%

61.1%Break Pts Saved+8.7pp69.8%

Points · 0–1

50.3%Total Pts Won+1.6pp51.9%