United StatesWTA CincinnatiFinished

Predictions graded

Ashlyn Krueger #58United States0Lois Boisson #299France2

Sets 3-6 · 2-6Thu 13 Aug 2026, 17:38 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAshlyn Krueger · 241 places

Ashlyn Krueger

United States

American right-hander born in May 2004. No verified current injury, withdrawal, or Cincinnati workload signal was established from the requested searches.

Current ranking: #58
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Lois Boisson

France

French right-hander born in May 2003. No verified current injury, withdrawal, or Cincinnati workload signal was established from the requested searches.

Current ranking: #299
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 15:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Ashlyn Krueger's dominant recent form (12-3) and superior return game give her a clear edge over Lois Boisson (5-10).

Krueger is likely to win in straight sets, but limited hard-court data and Boisson's competitiveness make wide handicaps risky. Best betting angle: Krueger to win, though odds are short; consider under 2.5 sets or over 7.5 aces with low confidence.

Context

Krueger last15 overall record: 12-3 (80% win rate).
- Boisson last15 overall record: 5-10 (33.3% win rate).
- Krueger has won 8 of her last 10 completed matches, including a title run on grass.
Krueger last15 return points won: 47% (483/1027).
- Boisson last15 return points won: 39.4% (427/1083).
- Krueger's break point conversion rate is 49.2% vs. Boisson's 31.1%.
Boisson last15 hard-court record: 4-3 (57.1% win rate).
- Wins over Arango (rank 97) and Samsonova (rank 55) on hard courts.
- Boisson's hard-court first-serve points won (66.2%) is close to Krueger's (67.6%).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ashlyn Krueger

1.38fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Krueger's dominant overall form (12-3) and superior return game (47% return points won) give her a clear edge over Boisson, who has struggled with a 33.3% win rate in her last 15 matches.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ashlyn Krueger

1.44fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Krueger's high career first-set win conversion (84%) and superior break point conversion in recent matches suggest she is likely to start strong and take the opening set.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.40fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Krueger's strong straight-set record and Boisson's frequent straight-set losses suggest Under 2.5 is likely, but the odds imply a higher probability than the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Krueger's dominant recent form (12-3 overall) and superior return game (47% return points won) give her a clear edge over Boisson, who has struggled with a 33.3% win rate in her last 15 matches.
- Krueger last15 overall record 12-3 (80%), Boisson 5-10 (33.3%)
- Krueger last15 total points won 53.6% vs Boisson 48.7%
- Krueger last15 return points won 47% vs Boisson 39.4%
- Boisson last15 hard record 4-3 (57.1%), but sample includes lower-ranked opponents
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAshlyn KruegerEstimated chance68%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have solid first-serve numbers on hard courts, which could lead to a competitive first set with at least 9 games.
- Krueger last15 average set games 9.3 (316 games in 34 sets)
- Boisson last15 average set games 9.0 (323 games in 36 sets)
- Boisson last15 hard first-serve points won 66.2%, Krueger 67.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent match game totals hover around 21, and Krueger's ability to win efficiently (80% win rate) could lead to a straight-set match with fewer games.
- Krueger last15 average games per match 21.1 (182 games in 15 matches)
- Boisson last15 average games per match 21.5 (147 games in 15 matches)
- Krueger last15 hard matches averaged 19 games (2 matches), Boisson hard averaged 21.1 (7 matches)
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Similar serve and break point save rates suggest the second set could also be tight, with a reasonable chance of exceeding 8.5 games.
- Krueger last15 average set games 9.3, Boisson 9.0
- Boisson last15 hard second-serve points won 48.7%, Krueger 45.6%
- Krueger last15 break point saved 65%, Boisson 56.9%
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Krueger's overall recent dominance in games won suggests she could cover a -3.5 game handicap, though limited hard-court data adds uncertainty.
- Krueger last15 average game margin +2.4 per match (182-147 games)
- Boisson last15 average game margin -1.5 per match (147-176 games)
- Krueger last15 hard game margin +0.5 (19-19), Boisson hard +0.4 (77-71)
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAshlyn Krueger -3.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Krueger's high career first-set win conversion (84%) and superior break point conversion in recent matches suggest she is likely to start strong and take the opening set.
- Krueger career first-set win conversion 84%
- Boisson last15 first-serve points won 65.9%, Krueger 67.6%
- Krueger last15 break point conversion 49.2% vs Boisson 31.1%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAshlyn KruegerEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Krueger's tendency to win in straight sets (8 of 12 recent wins) and Boisson's frequent straight-set losses suggest a two-set match is more likely.
- Krueger last15 straight-set win rate 66.7% (8 of 12 wins in straight sets)
- Boisson last15 straight-set loss rate 60% (6 of 10 losses in straight sets)
- Krueger career deciding set win rate 55%, Boisson 63%
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages from both players' recent matches exceed 7.5, making the over a reasonable expectation.
- Krueger last15 aces per match 4.9, Boisson 3.2
- Combined average aces per match 8.1
- Krueger last15 hard aces per match 4.5, Boisson hard 3.7
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 3.5 double faults per match, with Krueger's hard-court rate particularly high, pushing the combined total above 7.5.
- Krueger last15 double faults per match 4.7, Boisson 3.6
- Combined average double faults per match 8.3
- Krueger last15 hard double faults per match 6.5, Boisson hard 3.3
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Ashlyn Krueger has been highly reliable when projected to win

In 15 matches where Ashlyn Krueger was predicted to win, she fulfilled 14 predictions. The average estimated probability was 65.1%, with an expected 9.8 wins, indicating strong overperformance. The only miss came against Nikola Bartunkova at a 58% probability, while all other wins were secured.

Recent evidence for Ashlyn Krueger15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·WTA Washington

#65Ashlyn Krueger2-1#67Katie Boulter

BetBugsAshlyn Krueger to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

WTA Washington

#65Ashlyn Krueger2-1#67Katie Boulter

Ashlyn Krueger to win

62%probability

Ashlyn Krueger won

Matched

4 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#77Daria Snigur0-2#102Ashlyn Krueger

BetBugsAshlyn Krueger to win·58%

Matched

4 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#77Daria Snigur0-2#102Ashlyn Krueger

Ashlyn Krueger to win

58%probability

Ashlyn Krueger won

Matched

2 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#545Mariam Bolkvadze0-2#102Ashlyn Krueger

BetBugsAshlyn Krueger to win·72%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#545Mariam Bolkvadze0-2#102Ashlyn Krueger

Ashlyn Krueger to win

72%probability

Ashlyn Krueger won

Matched

25 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#96Ashlyn Krueger2-0#155Polina Iatcenko

BetBugsAshlyn Krueger to win·72%

Matched

25 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#96Ashlyn Krueger2-0#155Polina Iatcenko

Ashlyn Krueger to win

72%probability

Ashlyn Krueger won

Matched

24 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#96Ashlyn Krueger2-1#204Mai Hontama

BetBugsAshlyn Krueger to win·78%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#96Ashlyn Krueger2-1#204Mai Hontama

Ashlyn Krueger to win

78%probability

Ashlyn Krueger won

Matched

Ashlyn Krueger

12W 3L

6-3 3-1 ret.#13Naomi Osaka

3-6 6-2 6-2#72Katie Boulter

6-4 6-4#11Marta Kostyuk

6-3 6-2#43Daria Snigur

6-1 6-0#426Mariam Bolkvadze

3-6 7-6(3) 6-4#35Donna Vekic

7-6(8) 6-1#154Polina Iatcenko

6-3 5-7 6-3#172Mai Hontama

7-5 7-5#219Gabriela Andrea Knutson

7-5 6-2#222Celine Naef

6-4 3-6 6-4#92Darja Vidmanova

6-4 3-6 6-2#230Alicia Dudeney

6-1 ret.#205Katie Swan

6-2 6-2#121Elvina Kalieva

6-4 7-6(7)#42Nikola Bartunkova

Lois Boisson

5W 10L

4-6 6-1 6-3#56Antonia Ruzic

6-1 7-6(4)#97Emiliana Arango

6-4 1-6 6-3#2Elena Rybakina

6-4 5-7 6-3#86Solana Sierra

6-2 6-2#21Anna Kalinskaya

6-4 6-3#12Victoria Mboko

6-3 7-6(4)#41Xinyu Wang

6-7(5) 6-1 6-2#120Dominika Salkova

6-2 6-3#37Katerina Siniakova

6-1 6-3#57Peyton Stearns

6-2 1-0 ret.#28Emma Navarro

6-3 6-4#55Liudmila Samsonova

7-6(6) 5-7 6-2#159Dalma Galfi

4-6 6-2 6-2#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-2 6-1#174Yeon Woo Ku

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AKAshlyn KruegerKrueger

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Lois BoissonBoissonLB

Ashlyn Krueger carries the stronger recent form — Lois Boisson's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In64.9%+1.9pp66.8%

1st Serve Won67.6%+1.7pp65.9%

2nd Serve Won45.6%+3.4pp42.2%

Aces / Match4.9+1.73.2

Double Faults / Match4.71.1 fewer3.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won47.0%+7.6pp39.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted49.2%+18.1pp31.1%

Break Pts Saved65.0%+8.1pp56.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.6%+4.9pp48.7%

Serve · 3–2

64.9%1st Serve In+1.9pp66.8%

67.6%1st Serve Won+1.7pp65.9%

45.6%2nd Serve Won+3.4pp42.2%

4.9Aces / Match+1.73.2

4.7Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer3.6

Return · 1–0

47.0%Return Pts Won+7.6pp39.4%

Pressure · 2–0

49.2%Break Pts Converted+18.1pp31.1%

65.0%Break Pts Saved+8.1pp56.9%

Points · 1–0

53.6%Total Pts Won+4.9pp48.7%