Raul Brancaccio #237Italy11 – 2Marvin Moeller #319Germany2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Moeller's dominant recent form on clay (80% win rate, 44.7% return points won) and a straight-set H2H win give him a clear edge over Brancaccio's 50% clay win rate and weaker return stats.

• Moeller last 15 overall record 12-3 (80%), Brancaccio 7-8 (46.7%)
• Moeller last 15 clay record 12-3 (80%), Brancaccio 7-7 (50%)
• Moeller last 15 return points won 44.7%, Brancaccio 39.3%
• H2H: Moeller won 6-3 6-3 on clay in 2023

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

With both players holding serve effectively (first serve points won ~68-69%), the first set is likely to be close, often reaching at least 10 games.

• Brancaccio last 15 clay: 50% games won, many tight sets (e.g., 7-6, 6-4)
• Moeller last 15 clay: 56.5% games won, but several 7-6 and 6-4 sets
• Both players have first serve points won around 68-69%, limiting breaks

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Despite Moeller's edge, Brancaccio's recent clay matches average over 22 games, and Moeller's matches also hover near 22, making over 21.5 games a reasonable expectation in a competitive contest.

• Brancaccio last 15 clay matches average 22.9 games per match (320 games / 14 matches)
• Moeller last 15 clay matches average 21.9 games per match (329 games / 15 matches)
• Both players have competitive recent matches with multiple tight sets

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Similar to set 1, the second set is expected to be competitive with both players having decent hold rates, pushing the total games over 9.5.

• Brancaccio last 15 clay: 50% games won, competitive second sets
• Moeller last 15 clay: 56.5% games won, but second sets often tighter after adjustments
• Both players have break point save rates around 56-58%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Neither player is a big server; their combined ace average in recent matches is 6.4, making under 6.5 aces likely in a best-of-3 match.

• Brancaccio last 15 aces per match: 4.0
• Moeller last 15 aces per match: 2.4
• Combined average aces per match: 6.4, below 6.5 line

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With Brancaccio averaging 2.6 double faults and Moeller 1.8, the combined total often reaches 4-5, making over 4.5 a marginal but plausible outcome.

• Brancaccio last 15 double faults per match: 2.6
• Moeller last 15 double faults per match: 1.8
• Combined average double faults per match: 4.4, close to 4.5 line

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Both players have been involved in tiebreaks recently, and with competitive sets expected, there is a decent chance of at least one tiebreak in the match.

• Brancaccio career tiebreak win %: 54%, Moeller: 50%
• Brancaccio last 15 clay: multiple tiebreaks (e.g., vs Moller, vs Basile)
• Moeller last 15 clay: several tiebreaks (e.g., vs Hemery, vs Feldbausch)