United StatesWTA CincinnatiFinished

Predictions graded

Carol Young Suh Lee #165United States1Polina Kudermetova #103Uzbekistan2

Sets 4-6 · 7-6 · 4-6Wed 12 Aug 2026, 22:57 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–443%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePolina Kudermetova · 62 places

Carol Young Suh Lee

United States

Reached a career-high No. 162 on July 27, 2026. WTA lists her as right-handed, and public results summaries point to hard court as her best-established surface.

Current ranking: #165
Peak ranking: #162 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Polina Kudermetova

Uzbekistan

Reached a career-high No. 54 on April 14, 2025 after her Brisbane surge. WTA lists her as right-handed, and her strongest tour-level results so far have mainly come on hard courts.

Current ranking: #103
Peak ranking: #54 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Aug 2026, 11:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Lee's dominant hard-court form and Kudermetova's serving woes make Lee the favorite to win.

Value bets include over 9.5 double faults and over 9.5 games in set one, while Lee 2-0 offers a small edge. Avoid the total aces market due to marginal averages and low confidence.

Context

Lee won five straight matches in Prague qualifying and early rounds, all on hard courts.
- She dropped only one set across those five wins, beating opponents ranked between 101 and 333.
- Her last 15 hard-court record is 13-2, with a 76.5% sets-won rate.
Kudermetova retired against Alina Korneeva on August 3 after losing the first nine games.
- She had withdrawn from Prague on July 19 due to illness, then returned to win one match in Washington before the retirement.
- No public update confirms she is fully fit for Cincinnati qualifying.
Kudermetova's last-15 double-fault average is 6.8 per match overall, rising to 7.6 on hard courts.
- Her career double-fault count is 1664 in 379 matches, showing a long-term serving vulnerability.
- Lee's return game is solid, winning 46% of return points in her last 15 hard-court matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Lee's dominant hard-court form (13-2 in last 15) and current 5-match winning streak give her a clear edge over Kudermetova's inconsistent hard-court results (4-3) and recent retirement.
- Lee's last 15 hard-court record: 13-2 (86.7%), with 76.5% sets won and 59.3% games won.
- Kudermetova's last 15 hard-court record: 4-3 (57.1%), with 50% sets won and 48.1% games won.
- Lee's recent form (last 5 matches): 5-0, all on hard, dropping only 1 set; Kudermetova's last 5: 3-2, including a retirement loss.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCarol Young Suh LeeEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches trend toward higher game totals (21+ average), and their return abilities suggest extended rallies and potential for close sets.
- Lee's last 15 hard-court matches averaged 21.1 total games per match.
- Kudermetova's last 7 hard-court matches averaged 22.6 total games per match.
- Both players have competitive return stats: Lee 46% return points won, Kudermetova 43.7% on hard in last 15.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent first-set scores for both players often exceed 9.5 games, with competitive service breaks likely to push the set beyond a quick finish.
- Lee's last 5 first sets: 6-4, 6-2, 3-6, 2-6, 6-4 (average 9.4 games).
- Kudermetova's last 5 first sets on hard: 0-6, 6-4, 6-7, 5-7, 4-6 (average 9.8 games).
- Both players have break-point conversion rates near 40-49%, indicating potential for multiple breaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Lee's strong first-set performance (93% career conversion) and Kudermetova's recent first-set struggles on hard courts make Lee the favorite to take the opening set.
- Lee's first-set win conversion rate is 93% career, and she won the first set in 4 of her last 5 matches.
- Kudermetova lost the first set in 3 of her last 5 hard-court matches, including a 0-6 set in her most recent match (retirement).
- Lee's first-serve points won on hard in last 15: 67.4%; Kudermetova's: 65.8%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostCarol Young Suh LeeEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Kudermetova's high double-fault rate (6.8 per match) alone nearly covers the line, and Lee's moderate rate adds enough to expect over 9.5 total.
- Kudermetova averages 6.8 double faults per match in last 15 overall, and 7.6 on hard courts.
- Lee averages 2.7 double faults per match in last 15 on hard.
- Combined average double faults: 9.5 (Lee 2.7 + Kudermetova 6.8), with Kudermetova's high rate pushing the total.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages hover just above 5.5, and with both players capable of serving aces, the over is a marginal but reasonable pick.
- Lee averages 2.9 aces per match in last 15 hard-court matches; Kudermetova averages 2.7.
- Combined average aces per match: 5.6, slightly above the 5.5 line.
- Kudermetova's career ace count (1068 in 379 matches) suggests she can produce aces in bursts.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Carol Young Suh Lee has been highly reliable when projected to win

Carol Young Suh Lee has fulfilled 3 of 4 predictions as the projected winner, including three straight-set victories in her last three matches. Polina Kudermetova's predictability is high at 93%, but the current prediction favors Lee, and her recent reliability supports this outcome.

Recent evidence for Carol Youngsuh Lee4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

20 Jul·WTA Prague

—Veronika Podrez1-2—Carol Youngsuh Lee

BetBugsCarol Youngsuh Lee to win·62%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

—Veronika Podrez1-2—Carol Youngsuh Lee

Carol Youngsuh Lee to win

62%probability

Carol Youngsuh Lee won

Matched

19 Jul·WTA Prague

—Priscilla Hon0-2—Carol Youngsuh Lee

BetBugsCarol Youngsuh Lee to win·65%

Matched

19 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

—Priscilla Hon0-2—Carol Youngsuh Lee

Carol Youngsuh Lee to win

65%probability

Carol Youngsuh Lee won

Matched

18 Jul·WTA Prague

—Kyoka Okamura0-2—Carol Youngsuh Lee

BetBugsCarol Youngsuh Lee to win·72%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

—Kyoka Okamura0-2—Carol Youngsuh Lee

Carol Youngsuh Lee to win

72%probability

Carol Youngsuh Lee won

Matched

23 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

—Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah2-1—Carol Youngsuh Lee

BetBugsCarol Youngsuh Lee to win·62%

Missed

23 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

—Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah2-1—Carol Youngsuh Lee

Carol Youngsuh Lee to win

62%probability

Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah won

Missed

Carol Young Suh Lee

13W 2L

6-4 7-5#219Gabriela Andrea Knutson

6-2 6-2#182Vendula Valdmannova

3-6 7-6(4) 6-1#333Weronika Falkowska

2-6 6-3 6-1#225Aliona Falei

6-4 6-4#101Elsa Jacquemot

7-5 6-4#25Marie Bouzkova

6-1 5-7 6-2#139Veronika Podrez

7-5 6-3#158Priscilla Hon

7-5 6-1#262Kyoka Okamura

6-3 6-3#93Hanne Vandewinkel

1-6 6-1 6-2#249Xinyu Gao

6-1 6-1#233Francisca Jorge

6-3 6-2#304Anastasia Kulikova

7-6(1) 6-4#327Rina Saigo

6-4 7-6(3)#738Sonja Zhiyenbayeva

Polina Kudermetova

9W 6L

6-0 3-0 ret.#89Alina Korneeva

6-4 6-4—Avery Alexander

7-6(4) 6-4#9Elina Svitolina

5-7 7-6(4) 6-0#40Cristina Bucsa

4-6 7-6(7) 6-4#176Varvara Lepchenko

7-6(6) 6-4#264Mei Yamaguchi

6-0 7-6(1)#33Maria Sakkari

7-6(2) 6-4#826Liv Boulard

6-3 6-3#55Liudmila Samsonova

4-6 6-4 6-1#114Alina Charaeva

6-1 6-2#362Clervie Ngounoue

1-6 6-2 6-3#237Jessika Ponchet

6-0 6-3#25Marie Bouzkova

4-6 6-4 6-3#158Priscilla Hon

6-3 4-6 6-4#114Alina Charaeva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CLCarol Young Suh LeeLee

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Polina KudermetovaKudermetovaPK

Carol Young Suh Lee carries the stronger recent form — Polina Kudermetova's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In67.3%+12.3pp55.0%

1st Serve Won67.4%+0.9pp68.3%

2nd Serve Won50.6%+5.8pp44.8%

Aces / Match2.9+0.43.3

Double Faults / Match2.74.1 fewer6.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.0%+3.3pp42.7%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted49.6%+9.3pp40.3%

Break Pts Saved62.2%+9.7pp52.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.9%+3.8pp50.1%

Serve · 3–2

67.3%1st Serve In+12.3pp55.0%

67.4%1st Serve Won+0.9pp68.3%

50.6%2nd Serve Won+5.8pp44.8%

2.9Aces / Match+0.43.3

2.7Double Faults / Match4.1 fewer6.8

Return · 1–0

46.0%Return Pts Won+3.3pp42.7%

Pressure · 2–0

49.6%Break Pts Converted+9.3pp40.3%

62.2%Break Pts Saved+9.7pp52.5%

Points · 1–0

53.9%Total Pts Won+3.8pp50.1%

Carol Young Suh Lee

Polina Kudermetova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Carol Young Suh Lee

Over 9.5

Carol Young Suh Lee 2-0

Carol Young Suh Lee

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 2 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Carol Young Suh Lee

Polina Kudermetova

Stat Battle